Minggu, 01 Mei 2011

Analisa Forex Market 2 - 7 Mei 2011

 MARKET OUTLOOK; Setelah mengalami pelemahan sejak pembukaan perdagangan saham minggu ini, maka hari Rabu (27/04), IHSG mulai menaik seiring penguatan bursa saham global, bahkan pada penutupan perdagangan hari itu naik lagi sebesar 30,06 poin atau 0,8% menjadi 3804,93 basis poin, menembus rekor 3800. Dan hal ini terus berlanjut, perdagangan IHSG kamis pagi (28/04) kembali tercatat menguat 0,28% ke level 3815,753. Namun setelah mencetak rekor baru, diperkirakan kenaikan akan semakin tipis.

Ekonomi Nasional; Bank Indonesia (BI) memproyeksikan terjadinya deflasi di April 2011 ini, diperkirakan bisa mencapai 0,25%. "Ya April 2011 deflasi. Year on year-nya turun jadi 6,3-6,4%. Deflasinya itu 0,15-0,25% penurunannya," kata Gubernur Bank Indonesia Darmin Nasution, Rabu (27/4/2011). Sebelumnya, Kepala Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) Rusman Heriawan memperkirakan di April akan kembali terjadi deflasi karena tren penurunan harga pangan, terutama harga pangan yang bergejolak (volatile) seperti cabai merah dan bawang merah. Namun tekanan inflasi pada bulan ini, diperkirakan berasal dari harga emas dan perhiasan yang menunjukkan tren harga yang masih tinggi.

Ekonomi Global; Pengumuman The Fed yang menyatakan bahwa kebijakan moneter longgar masih akan diterapkan di AS dan meyakini bahwa inflasi belum menjadi ancaman jangka panjang bagi ekonomi AS, memberikan peningkatan yang cukup signifikan pada perdagangan di Bursa Wall Street, dan hal tersebut berpengaruh positif untuk bursa secara global. Pergerakan bursa saham Wall Street pada perdagangan selanjutnya masih akan kuat dipengaruhi sentimen yang berkaitan dengan kondisi ekonomi AS dan global secara umum. Faktor penggerak lainnya adalah faktor internal pasar yaitu berupa laporan keuangan perusahaan dan aksi akuisisi.

Kawasan Amerika: Indikator Federal Funds Rate yang diharapkan tetap pada <0.25%, akhirnya terealisir saat The Fed mengumumkannya kemarin. Hal tersebut direspon positif oleh investor pada perdagangan forex. Mata uang Dollar AS pada perdagangan pair USD/CHF terpantau menguat, dan selanjutnya diperkirakan masih dapat menguat tipis.

Kawasan Inggris dan Eropa: Indikator Prelim GDP q/q yang dijadwalkan akan dirilis oleh National Statistics diperkirakan akan menunjukkan peningkatan performa dan diestimasi dapat naik menjadi 0.5% dari nilai periode lalu yaitu -0.5%. Sekalipun masih prediksi, namun hal tersebut memperoleh respon dini dari investor forex, dimana Sterling pada pasangan mata uang GBP/JPY ini diperkirakan masih dapat menguat lebih lanjut, sampai menjelang data diumumkan.

Kawasan Australia: Inflasi di Australia untuk kuartal pertama lalu memperlihatkan terjadi percepatan inflasi. Inflasi tersebut mencapai angka 1.6%. Tingkat inflasi ini jauh melampaui inflasi yang terjadi pada kuartal keempat lalu, juga melampaui estimasi inflasi. Dengan kenaikan inflasi tersebut harapan bahwa RBA akan kembali menaikkan suku bunga makin terbuka. Diperkirakan pergerakan nilai tukar aussie terhadap dolar akan cenderung melanjutkan kenaikannya.

SAHAM; Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan pada penutupan perdagangan Rabu (27/4) dan pembukaan perdagangan hari Kamis (28/04) mencetak rekor baru, dengan meningkat 0,28% ke level 3815,753. Saham-saham yang tercatat menguat pada perdagangan pagi ini antara lain saham BTPN naik 14,4% ke Rp 2975, saham APLN naik 4,4% ke Rp 360, saham HRUM naik 1,1% ke Rp 9500, dan saham ADMF naik 2,1% ke Rp 12050. Saham-saham yang tercatat melemah pada perdagangan pagi ini antara lain saham MYOR turun 2,6% ke Rp 11400, saham NIKL turun 2,4% ke Rp 410, saham SMCB turun 2,2% ke Rp 2250, dan saham GIAA turun 1,9% ke Rp 530. Namun setelah mencetak rekor baru, diperkirakan kenaikan akan semakin tipis.

FOREX; Nilai tukar euro mengalami peningkatan signifikan terhadap dolar AS hari Kamis. Hal ini terjadi karena Dolar sedang berada dalam momentum pelemahan setelah Fed memutuskan untuk mempertahankan kebijakan moneter longgar. Pergerakan nilai tukar euro terhadap dolar akan cenderung melanjutkan kenaikannya. Diperkirakan euro akan mampu mengetes kembali level resistance terdekat di 1.4900 dolar.

POUNDSTERLING; Pada perdagangan pair GBP/JPY sesi Eropa Rabu (27-04) Poundsterling terpantau melemah terhadap Yen dan berada pada kisaran 134.61. Indikator Prelim GDP q/q diperkirakan akan menunjukkan peningkatan performa. GBP/JPY ini diperkirakan masih dapat menguat lebih lanjut, terutama sampai menjelang data diumumkan. Harga dapat berbalik arah secara cukup drastis, jika rilis data aktual menunjukkan kinerja yang positif.

EMAS; Pada sesi perdagangan di Asia hari Kamis harga emas tampak kembali mencetak rekor tertinggi setelah Fed memutuskan untuk mempertahankan kebijakan moneter longgar untuk jangka waktu yang tidak terbatas. Pagi tadi harga emas sempat mencetak rekor baru pada posisi 1530.20 dolar per troy ons. Saat ini harga emas ditransaksikan pada posisi 1528.40 dolar per troy ons, menguat sebesar 2.4 dolar dari posisi penutupan perdagangan dini hari tadi. diperkirakan harga emas akan mengalami pergerakan pada kisaran 1500 – 1550 dolar per troy ons.

INDEKS; Sentimen positif yang dibawa oleh Wall Street pada akhir perdagangannya dini hari tadi, berimbas pada menguat tipisnya perdagangan di indeks bursa Asia, namun pergerakannya terlihat cukup tenang cenderung santai. Indeks berjangka Nikkei 225 untuk kontrak Juni tampak mengalami kenaikan tipis saja, dibuka naik 5 poin pada posisi 9735 poin, kemudian cenderung melemah pada kisaran 9725 – 9770 poin, diperkirakan akan mengalami pergerakan pada kisaran 9600 – 9800 poin. Indeks berjangka Kospi 200 untuk kontrak Juni tampak mengalami kenaikan, dibuka naik 60 poin pada posisi 293.80 poin, kemudian selama beberapa menit cenderung melemah bergerak pada kisaran 293.70 – 294.70 poin, diperkirakan akan mengalami pergerakan pada kisaran 9600 – 9800 poin. Indeks Hangseng, setelah pada perdagangan tadi pagi sempat menguat, Indeks Hang Seng sesi I melemah sebesar 35,69 poin atau 0,15% menjadi 23843,55 basis poin, iperkirakan akan masih berpeluang mengalami pelemahan menyusul kurang kondusifnya pergerakan bursa di kawasan Asia saat ini.

PROPERTI; Bali sebagai area tujuan wisata utama di Indonesia dan dunia sedang marak melakukan pembangunan kondominium hotel (kondotel) strata tittle (jual). Tercatat, akan hadir 15 kondotel strata tittle dengan total investasi Rp 1,5 triliun. Pengembangan kondotel tersebut terpicu dengan meningkatnya kebutuhan akomodasi hotel . Di 2010, hotel bintang mencapai 21.666 kamar, naik 45%. Kenaikan tertinggi pada hotel bintang empat, 1,36%. “Pertumbuhan terendah pada hotel bintang tiga, 0,58%. Prospek hotel masih terbuka lebar," kata General Manager Corporate Communication Metland, Tony Eddy usai peluncuran condotel Metland yang berlokasi di Seminyak, Bali, Selasa (26/4/2011).
MARKET OUTLOOK: After experiencing a slowdown since the opening of trading this week, then on Wednesday (27/04), JCI began rising over the strengthening of global stock markets, even at the close of trading that day rose again by 30.06 points, or 0.8% to 3804.93 basis points, hit a record 3800. And this continues, stock index trading Thursday morning (28/04) re-recorded rose 0.28% to a level of 3815.753. But after scoring a new record, expected to rise will be increasingly thin.
National Economy, Bank Indonesia (BI) projects deflation in April 2011, is estimated to reach 0.25%. "Yes April 2011 deflation. Year on year it dropped to 6.3 to 6.4%. Deflasinya was 0.15 to 0.25% decline," said Nasution was Governor of Bank Indonesia, Wednesday (04/27/2011) . Previously, Head of the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) Rusman Heriawan estimates in April will return deflation since the downward trend in food prices, particularly food prices volatile (volatile) such as red peppers and red onion. However, inflationary pressure this month, is expected to come from the price of gold and jewelry that shows the price trend is still high.
Global Economy: The Fed's announcement that states that the loose monetary policy will still be applied in the U.S. and believe that inflation has not become a long-term threat for the U.S. economy, providing a significant increase in trading on Wall Street, and it has positive for the stock are global. Wall Street stock market movement on the next trade will still be strongly influenced by sentiment related to the U.S. and global economic conditions in general. Another driving factor is the internal factor markets in the form of corporate financial reporting and acquisition action.
Regions America: Indicators Federal Funds Rate, which is expected to remain at <0.25%, finally realized when the Fed announced yesterday. It was responded positively by investors in forex trading. U.S. Dollar currency pair to trade USD / CHF was observed to strengthen, and further strengthening is expected to still be thin.
Regions UK and Europe: Indicators of Prelim GDP q / q which is scheduled to be released by the National Statistics is expected to show increased performance and estimated to rise to 0.5% of the value of last period is -0.5%. Though still predicted, but this should get an early response from investors forex, where Sterling on the currency pair GBP / JPY is expected to still be strengthened further, until just before the data was published.
Regions Australia: Inflation in Australia for the first quarter and showed an accelerated inflation. Inflation reached 1.6%. The inflation rate is far beyond the inflation that occurred in the fourth quarter ago, also exceeded the estimate of inflation. With the rise in inflation expectations that the RBA will again raise interest rates more open. It is estimated that the Australian dollar exchange rate movements against the dollar will likely continue the ascension.
STOCK: Composite Stock Price Index at the close of trading Wednesday (27 / 4) and the opening of trading on Thursday (04/28) scored a new record, with 0.28% increase to the level of 3815.753. The shares are listed strengthened in morning trade, among other BTPN shares rose 14.4% to Rp 2975, APLN shares rose 4.4% to USD 360, HRUM shares rose 1.1% to USD 9500, and shares rose 2 ADMF , 1% to Rp 12,050. The shares are listed weakened in morning trade, among other MYOR shares fell 2.6% to Rp 11,400, NIKL shares fell 2.4% to USD 410, SMCB shares down 2.2% to USD 2250, and shares fell 1 GIAA , 9% to USD 530. But after scoring a new record, expected to rise will be increasingly thin.
FOREX: The euro exchange rate has increased significantly against the U.S. dollar on Thursday. This happens because the dollar was weakening in the momentum after the Fed decided to keep monetary policy loose. Euro exchange rate movements against the dollar will likely continue the ascension. It is estimated that the euro will be able to test again the nearest resistance level at 1.4900 dollars.
Pounds; In trading GBP / JPY European session on Wednesday (27-04) pound sterling weakened against the yen and was observed to be in the range 134.61. Indicator Prelim GDP q / q is expected to show improved performance. GBP / JPY is expected to still be strengthened further, especially until the data was published. Prices can be quite drastic turn, if the release of actual data showed a positive performance.
GOLD: In the Asian trading session on Thursday gold prices looked back scoring record highs after the Fed decided to keep monetary policy loose for an indefinite period. This morning gold prices had struck a new record in the position of 1530.20 dollars per troy ounce. Currently, gold prices traded at position 1528.40 dollars per troy ounce, rose 2.4 dollars from the position early this morning close of trade. estimated price of gold will experience movement in the range 1500 - 1550 dollars per troy ounce.
INDEX; positive sentiment brought on by Wall Street in late trading early this morning, resulted in strengthened thin trading on stock index Asia, but it looks pretty calm movements tend to relax. Nikkei 225 Index futures contracts in June looks to increase thin it, opened up 5 points at 9735 points position, and then tends to weaken in the range of 9725-9770 points, is expected to experience movement in the range of 9600-9800 points. Kospi 200 index futures contracts in June looks to have increased, opening up 60 points at 293.80 points position, then for a few minutes tends to weaken engaged in the range 293.70 - 294.70 points, is expected to experience movement in the range of 9600-9800 points. Hangseng index, after the trade was stronger this morning, the first session of the Hang Seng Index fell by 35.69 points or 0.15% to 23843.55 basis points, iperkirakan will still likely weakened following the less conducive the stock movement in Asia today .

PROPERTY; Bali as a major tourist destination area in Indonesia and the emerging world to do the construction condo hotel (Condotel) strata tittle (sell). Noted, will present 15 Condotel strata tittle with a total investment of Rp 1.5 trillion. Condotel development was triggered by the increasing need for hotel accommodation. In 2010, hotel rooms reached 21,666, up 45%. The highest increase in four-star hotels, 1.36%. "The growth of the lowest in three-star hotels, 0.58%. Prospect hotels still wide open, "said General Manager of Corporate Communication Metland, Tony Eddy after the launch of Metland condotel located in Seminyak, Bali, on Tuesday (04/26/2011).

Trading Plan :



USD-JPY
BUY
82.25
SELL
81.20
BUY BREAK
84.25
SELL BREAK
79.50
TAKE PROFIT
0.50
STOP LOSS
0.30
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT


81.71

             Trend : Down












AUD-USD
BUY
1.0930
SELL
1.0820
BUY BREAK
1.1130
SELL BREAK
1.0620
TAKE PROFIT
0.0050
STOP LOSS
0.0030
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT


1.0875

Trend : Up












EUR-USD
BUY
1.4785
SELL
1.4675
BUY BREAK
1.4985
SELL BREAK
1.4475
TAKE PROFIT
0.0050
STOP LOSS
0.0030
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT


1.4726

Trend : Up












GBP-USD
BUY
1.6685
SELL
1.6575
BUY BREAK
1.6885
SELL BREAK
1.6375
TAKE PROFIT
0.0050
STOP LOSS
0.0030
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT


1.6627

Trend : Up












USD-CHF
BUY
0.8775
SELL
0.8665
BUY BREAK
0.8995
SELL BREAK
0.8465
TAKE PROFIT
0.0050
STOP LOSS
0.0030
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT


0.8717

Trend : Down










EUR-JPY
BUY
120.75
SELL
119.65
BUY BREAK
122.75
SELL BREAK
117.65
TAKE PROFIT
0.0050
STOP LOSS
0.0030
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT


120.18

Trend : Up