Minggu, 10 April 2011

Analisa Forex Market 11 April - 16 April 2011

Ekonomi Global; Naiknya pergerakan bursa kali ini dipicu oleh adanya sentimen positif yang datang dari imbas kebijakan suku bunga Bank Sentral Inggris yang tetap ditahan pada level 0,5%. Demikian juga Indikator Unemployment Claims yang dirilis oleh Department of Labor AS menunjukkan adanya sinyalemen positif karena terjadinya peningkatan performa pada sektor tenaga kerja di negara tersebut.

Kawasan Amerika: Indikator Unemployment Claims yang dirilis oleh Department of Labor AS menunjukkan adanya peningkatan performa pada sektor tenaga kerja di negara tersebut. Indikator Unemployment Claims dilaporkan turun menjadi 382K dimana sebelumnya diperkirakan akan turun menjadi 385K dari nilai sebelumnya yaitu 388K. Dollar AS pada pasangan mata uang USD/JPY ini diperkirakan masih dapat menguat lebih lanjut.

Kawasan Inggris dan Eropa: Bank of England (BOE) yang menahan suku bunga, dimana berdasarkan Indikator Official Bank Rate ditahan pada tingkat 0.50% nilai sebelumnya yaitu 0.50%. Hal ini berimbas pada kurang diminatinya Sterling seiring dengan belum adanya sinyalemen yang menunjukkan peningkatan kinerja ekonomi di negara Inggris . Sementara itu Indikator Minimum Bid Rate yang baru saja dirilis oleh European Central Bank (ECB) menunjukan sinyalemen adanya perkembangan yang cukup positif pada ekonomi Uni Eropa, dimana terjadi peningkatan menjadi 1.25% dimana sebelumnya diperkirakan akan naik menjadi 1.25% dari 1.00%.

Kawasan Australia: Data peningkatan tenaga kerja menunjukkan tenaga kerja di Australia bertambah 37800 orang dibandingkan estimasi peningkatan yang hanya sebesar 22700 orang. Sementara itu tingkat pengangguran di bulan Maret lalu mengalami penurunan ke level 4.9% dari 5% di bulan sebelumnya. Hal ini akan membawa pergerakan aussie cenderung mengalami kenaikan

SAHAM; Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan pada perdagangan hari ini (7/4) ditutup pada posisi menguat tipis. Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan ditutup naik sebesar 2,79 poin atau 0,07% menjadi 3730,58 basis poin. Sedangkan indeks LQ45 naik 0,31% menjadi 667.758 basis poin. Saham-saham yang mengalami kenaikan diantaranya ialah saham AALI naik 0,66% menjadi Rp 22800, saham ANTM naik 1,08% menjadi Rp 2350 dan saham BBCA naik 1,44% menjadi Rp 7050. IHSG diperkirakan akan masih berpeluang bergerak terbatas kembali. Kisaran rasional bagi IHSG diperkirakan akan berada pada level antara 3720-3740 basis poin.

FOREX; Menurunnya klaim pengangguran di AS, semakin memberikan keyakinan positif akan kenaikan USD. Dollar AS terpantau menguat terhadap Yen Jepang dan berada pada kisaran 85.23, dan semakin diminati investor forex seiring dengan adanya sinyalemen positif pada ekonomi AS. Dollar AS pada pasangan mata uang USD/JPY ini diperkirakan masih dapat menguat lebih lanjut. Indikator Minimum Bid Rate yang baru saja dirilis oleh European Central Bank (ECB) menunjukan sinyalemen adanya perkembangan yang cukup positif pada ekonomi Uni Eropa, hal ini berimbas terjadi penguatan Euro. Pasar forex merespon hal tersebut dengan rebound pair EUR/USD sehingga berada pada kisaran 1.4277.

POUNDSTERLING; Pengumuman Bank of England yang mempertahankan suku bunga pada level 0,5% memperlemah Poundsterling terhadap USD dan berada pada kisaran 1.6339. Namun Sterling pada pasangan mata uang GBP/USD ini diperkirakan masih dapat menguat lebih lanjut.

EMAS; Naiknya harga emas pada perdagangan hari ini dipicu adanya ekspektasi mengenai kenaikan suku bunga acuan Bank Sentral Eropa, yang memang akhirnya mengalami kenaikan. Emas spot saat ini naik 1,8 dollar menjadi 1460,3 dollar per troy ons dengan level support sebesar 1451,52 dollar per troy ons dan level resistant sebesar 1462,61 dollar per troy ons. Pergerakan harga emas diperkirakan akan masih berpeluang mengalami kenaikan.

INDEKS; Setelah 3 hari mengalami kenaikan, Indeks Hangseng pada hari ini turun tipis, hal ini disebabkan oleh adanya aksi ambil untung, Indeks Hang Seng ditutup turun sebesar 3,25 poin atau 0,01% menjadi 24281,8 basis poin. Sedangkan Indeks Kospi selama 4 hari berturut-turut turun tipis, hal tersebut terjadi akibat aksi ambil untung yang dilakukan oleh investor, Indeks Kospi ditutup turun 4,57 poin atau 0,21% menjadi 2122,14 basis poin. Sedangkan Indeks Nikkei terpantau zig zag artinya naik turun sepanjang minggu ini dan pada akhir penutupan hari ini terpantau naik karena imbas positif dari kebijakan Bank of Japan yang akan mengucurkan paket stimulus kepada sektor bisnis senilai 12 miliar dollar guna meningkatkan performa ekonomi paska bencana gempa dan tsunami. Indeks Nikkei naik 6,56 poin atau 0,07% menjadi 9590,93 basis poin. Ketiga indeks tersebut untuk selanjutnya diperkirakan akan masih belum aman dari koreksi .

PROPERTI; Program pembangunan rumah murah di kawasan Indonesia Timur dilaksanakan di Maluku yang akan disiapkan untuk sejuta rumah. "Tiap Kabupaten di Maluku akan dibangun 100 unit rumah, sasaran utamanya untuk masyarakat nelayan pesisir dan masyarakat kumuh perkotaan," kata Menpera Suharso Monoarfa. Proyek pembangunan sejuta rumah murah tersebut adalah bagian dari klaster empat dalam program penanggulangan kemiskinan yang dicanangkan oleh pemerintah pusat. Sementara itu kedatangan Presiden Turki, Abdullah Gul beserta rombongan pengusaha ke Indonesia adalah untuk menjajaki kerjasama bisnis diantaranya bisnis hotel di pulau-pulau Indonesia. "Indonesia punya banyak sekali pulau-pulau yang indah. Kita bisa kerjasama untuk bangun hotel-hotel di kawasan pulau-pulau itu," jelas Gul.
 

Global Economy: Rising stock movement this time triggered by the presence of positive sentiment coming from the impact of interest rate policy of Bank of England who remained in detention at the level of 0.5%. Likewise Unemployment Claims Indicators released by the U.S. Department of Labor show the existence of positive signal due to the improved performance on the labor sector in the country.
Regions America: Indicators of Unemployment Claims released by the U.S. Department of Labor to demonstrate improvement in performance in the labor sector in the country. Indicators of Unemployment Claims fell to 382K which was reported previously expected to fall to 385K from the previous value of 388K. U.S. Dollar on the currency pair USD / JPY is expected to still be strengthened further.
UK and European Regions: The Bank of England (BOE), which hold interest rates, which according to the Official Bank Rate Indicator detained at the level of 0.50% the previous value of 0.50%. This resulted in less interested in Sterling due to the lack of signal "which indicates improved economic performance in the UK. Meanwhile, the Minimum Bid Rate Indicator has just been released by the European Central Bank (ECB) shows indication of some positive developments on the EU economy, where there is an increase to 1.25% where previously expected to increase to 1.25% from 1.00%.
Regions Australia: Data shows increase in labor workforce in Australia increased 37.8 thousand persons compared to the estimated increase of only 22,700 people. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate in March decreased to a level of 4.9% from 5% in the previous month. This will bring the movement of the Australian dollar tends to increase
STOCK: Composite Stock Price Index on the trade today (7 / 4) closed at strengthening the position of thin. Composite Stock Price Index closed up by 2.79 points or 0.07% to 3730.58 basis points. While the LQ45 index rose 0.31% to 667 758 basis points. The shares which increased share of which is AALI rose 0.66% to Rp 22,800, ANTM shares rose 1.08% to Rp 2350 and BBCA shares rose 1.44% to Rp 7050. JCI is expected to still more likely to move a limited return. The range of the rational for the JCI is expected to be on the level of 3720-3740 basis points.
FOREX: The decline in U.S. jobless claims, has given more positive belief will rise to USD. U.S. dollar strengthened against the Japanese Yen monitored and in the range of 85.23, and increasingly in demand in line with forex investors positive signal on the U.S. economy. U.S. Dollar on the currency pair USD / JPY is expected to still be strengthened further. Minimum Bid Rate Indicator has just been released by the European Central Bank (ECB) shows indication of some positive developments on the EU economy, this impact occurs strengthening Euro. The forex market responded by rebounding pair EUR / USD that is in the range 1.4277.
Pounds; Announcements Bank of England keep interest rates at 0.5% level to weaken the pound sterling against the USD and in the range of 1.6339. However, Sterling on the currency pair GBP / USD is expected to still be strengthened further.
GOLD; Rising gold prices in today's trading triggered expectations of higher interest rates The European Central Bank, which was eventually increased. Current spot gold rose 1.8 dollars to 1460.3 dollars per troy ounce with the support level at 1451.52 dollars per troy ounce and resistant level at 1462.61 dollars per troy ounce. The movement of gold prices is expected to still more likely to rise.
INDEX; After 3 days have increased, Hangseng Index today fell a thin, this is caused by the presence of profit-taking, the Hang Seng Index closed down 3.25 points or 0.01% to 24281.8 basis points. While the Kospi index for 4-day losing streak thin, it happens due to profit taking by investors, the Kospi Index closed down 4.57 points or 0.21% to 2122.14 basis points. While the Nikkei index was observed to zig zag up and down all week means this and at the end of this day's closing observed increase due to the positive impact of the policy of the Bank of Japan which will contribute to the business sector stimulus package worth 12 billion dollars to improve the economic performance of post-earthquake and tsunami disaster. The Nikkei rose 6.56 points or 0.07% to 9590.93 basis points. The three indices are henceforth expected to still not safe from the correction.
PROPERTY; Program low-cost housing development in east Indonesia implemented in Maluku which will be prepared for a million homes. "Every district in the Moluccas to be built 100 housing units, the main target for coastal fishing communities and urban slum communities," said Menpera Suharso Monoarfa. Low-cost housing construction project is part of a cluster of four in poverty reduction programs initiated by the central government. Meanwhile, the arrival of Turkish President Abdullah Gul and his entourage businessmen to Indonesia is to explore business cooperation among business hotels in the islands of Indonesia. "Indonesia has many beautiful islands. We can work together to build hotels in the area of ​​the islands," said Gul.
 
 
 Market Data Calendar :

Apr 11 - Apr 16 Filter
Date Time & Date OptionsGMT+7 Currency
 Impact Detail Actual Forecast Previous Chart



















Mon
Apr 11
Up Next 6:50 JPY
Core Machinery Orders m/m
-0.9%
4.2%
13:45 EUR
French Industrial Production m/m
0.5%
1.0%
15:00 EUR
Italian Industrial Production m/m
1.4%
-1.5%
16:15 USD
FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
22:00 USD
FOMC Member Evans Speaks
22:30 EUR
Buba President Weber Speaks
23:15 USD
FOMC Member Yellen Speaks
Tue
Apr 12
12th-13th NZD
REINZ HPI m/m
2.3%
6:01 GBP
BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y
-0.4%
6:01 GBP
RICS House Price Balance
-23%
-26%
6:50 JPY
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
6:50 JPY
Bank Lending y/y
-1.8%
6:50 JPY
M2 Money Stock y/y
2.6%
2.4%
8:30 AUD
NAB Business Confidence
14
12th-15th CNY
New Loans
603B
536B
12th-15th CNY
M2 Money Supply y/y
15.4%
15.7%
13:00 EUR
German Final CPI m/m
0.5%
0.5%
13:00 JPY
Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y
73.9%
15:30 GBP
CPI y/y
4.4%
4.4%
15:30 GBP
RPI y/y
5.4%
5.5%
15:30 GBP
Trade Balance
-8.1B
-7.1B
15:30 GBP
Core CPI y/y
3.4%
3.4%
15:30 GBP
DCLG HPI y/y
1.3%
0.5%
16:00 EUR
German ZEW Economic Sentiment
12.2
14.1
16:00 EUR
ZEW Economic Sentiment
29.8
31.0
17:15 USD
FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
19:30 CAD
Trade Balance
0.7B
0.1B
19:30 CAD
NHPI m/m
0.4%
0.2%
19:30 USD
Trade Balance
-44.1B
-46.3B
19:30 USD
Import Prices m/m
2.1%
1.4%
20:00 CAD
BOC Rate Statement
20:00 CAD
Overnight Rate
1.00%
1.00%
21:00 USD
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
45.7
43.0
Wed
Apr 13
1:00 USD
Federal Budget Balance
-157.5B
-222.5B
1:45 USD
FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks
1:50 USD
FOMC Member Fisher Speaks
5:45 NZD
FPI m/m
0.1%
5:45 NZD
Visitor Arrivals m/m
2.0%
6:50 JPY
CGPI y/y
1.9%
1.7%
7:30 AUD
Westpac Consumer Sentiment
-2.4%
12:30 EUR
French CPI m/m
0.6%
0.5%
13:00 EUR
German WPI m/m
1.3%
1.4%
14:15 CHF
PPI m/m
0.4%
0.2%
15:30 GBP
Claimant Count Change
-3.1K
-10.2K
15:30 GBP
Average Earnings Index 3m/y
2.6%
2.3%
15:30 GBP
Unemployment Rate
8.0%
8.0%
16:00 EUR
Industrial Production m/m
0.8%
0.2%
Tentative EUR
Buba President Weber Speaks
19:30 USD
Core Retail Sales m/m
0.7%
0.7%
19:30 USD
Retail Sales m/m
0.6%
1.0%
21:00 USD
Business Inventories m/m
0.8%
0.9%
21:30 CAD
BOC Monetary Policy Report
21:30 USD
Crude Oil Inventories
2.0M
22:15 CAD
BOC Press Conference
Thu
Apr 14
0:00 AUD
RBA Gov Stevens Speaks
1:00 USD
Beige Book
5:30 NZD
Business NZ Manufacturing Index
53.7
Tentative GBP
Nationwide Consumer Confidence
40
38
8:00 AUD
MI Inflation Expectations
3.6%
8:30 AUD
New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m
0.2%
15:00 EUR
ECB Monthly Bulletin
16:00 CHF
ZEW Economic Expectations
-13.5
19:30 CAD
Manufacturing Sales m/m
0.6%
4.5%
19:30 CAD
New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m
2.8%
3.2%
19:30 USD
PPI m/m
1.2%
1.6%
19:30 USD
Unemployment Claims
379K
382K
19:30 USD
Core PPI m/m
0.2%
0.2%
20:00 USD
FOMC Member Duke Speaks
20:20 USD
FOMC Member Kocherlakota Speaks
All Day ALL
G7 Meetings
21:30 USD
Natural Gas Storage
-45B
23:30 USD
FOMC Member Plosser Speaks
Fri
Apr 15
0:15 USD
FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks
9:00 CNY
CPI y/y
5.2%
4.9%
9:00 CNY
GDP q/y
9.5%
9.8%
9:00 CNY
Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y
25.3%
24.9%
9:00 CNY
Industrial Production y/y
14.1%
14.1%
9:00 CNY
NBS Press Conference
9:00 CNY
PPI y/y
7.2%
7.2%
9:00 CNY
Retail Sales y/y
16.5%
15.8%
15th-22nd CNY
Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y
27.1%
11:30 JPY
Revised Industrial Production m/m
0.4%
0.4%
15:00 EUR
Italian Trade Balance
-4.36B
-6.56B
16:00 EUR
CPI y/y
2.6%
2.6%
16:00 EUR
Core CPI y/y
1.1%
1.0%
16:00 EUR
Trade Balance
-3.4B
-3.3B
19:30 USD
Core CPI m/m
0.2%
0.2%
19:30 USD
CPI m/m
0.6%
0.5%
19:30 USD
Empire State Manufacturing Index
17.3
17.5
20:00 USD
TIC Long-Term Purchases
59.4B
51.5B
20:15 USD
Capacity Utilization Rate
77.5%
76.3%
20:15 USD
Industrial Production m/m
0.5%
-0.1%
20:55 USD
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
68.8
67.5
20:55 USD
Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations
4.6%
All Day ALL
G20 Meetings
22:15 USD
FOMC Member Evans Speaks
Sat
Apr 16
Day 1 ALL
IMF Meetings
 
 
Trading Plan :



USD-JPY
BUY
85.19
SELL
84.34
BUY BREAK
86.48
SELL BREAK
83.05
TAKE PROFIT
0.50
STOP LOSS
0.30
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

85.63
84.75
83.94
             Trend : Up
86.44

83.06

87.32

82.25





AUD-USD
BUY
1.0509
SELL
1.0433
BUY BREAK
1.0669
SELL BREAK
1.0180
TAKE PROFIT
0.0050
STOP LOSS
0.0030
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

1.0665
1.0474
1.0372
Trend : Up
1.0767

1.0181

1.0958

1.0079





EUR-USD
BUY
1.4412
SELL
1.4337
BUY BREAK
1.4605
SELL BREAK
1.4040
TAKE PROFIT
0.0050
STOP LOSS
0.0030
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

1.4601
1.4378
1.4264
Trend : Up
1.4715

1.4041

1.4938

1.3927





GBP-USD
BUY
1.6349
SELL
1.6274
BUY BREAK
1.6643
SELL BREAK
1.6178
TAKE PROFIT
0.0050
STOP LOSS
0.0030
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

1.6512
1.6305
1.6179
Trend : Up
1.6639

1.5971

1.6846

1.5844





USD-CHF
BUY
0.9188
SELL
0.9103
BUY BREAK
0.9386
SELL BREAK
0.8987
TAKE PROFIT
0.0050
STOP LOSS
0.0030
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

0.9266
0.9144
0.8988
Trend : Down
0.9382

0.8906

0.9464

0.8750



EUR-JPY
BUY
122.17
SELL
121.32
BUY BREAK
124.25
SELL BREAK
117.80
TAKE PROFIT
0.0050
STOP LOSS
0.0030
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

124.25
121.73
120.33
Trend : Up
125.65

117.81

128.17

116.41