Kamis, 10 Maret 2011

Analisa Forex Market 10 Maret 2011

Euro berdiri sendirian Rabu, karena peningkatan ketegangan perifer. EUR/USD menembus intraday low 1,3872, EUR/JPY mengikuti dengan turun 30 poin rendah 114,82.

Sementara EUR/CHF turun tajam 30 poin menembus intraday low 1,2955 setelah rilis CPI Swiss Februari.

CPI di 0,4 % bukan 0,3% seperti ekspektasi analis. Di negara perifer zona-eropa yield spread melebar, dengan Irlandia dan Portugal di bawah tekanan.
Dollar naik moderat terhadap yen di Asia, Rabu (9/3) karena investor Jepang mengambil naik tipis di Treasury yields AS hari Selasa sebagai petunjuk untuk membeli dollar AS, kendati dealer mengatakan order jual eksportir Jepang akan membatasi kenaikan selanjutnya.

Untuk sisa hari global, perhatian akan pada penawaran Departemen Keuangan AS di $21 miliar pada catatan 10 tahun, dengan yield naik mungkin mendorong dollar ke sekitar Y83.00, ujar dealer.

Analis mengatakan Treasury yields dapat berlanjut untuk berfluktuasi bahkan jika tawaran penjualan 10 tahun kuat setelah lelang baik dari penjualan catatan 3 tahun hari Selasa belum cukup menutup hasil seluruh kurva.

"Hasil lelang catatan 3 tahun kemarin kuat, tetapi Treasury yields AS terus berkisar," ujar Sumino Kamei, seorang analis senior di global currency research di Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.

Dealer mengatakan dollar pun terbantu pada yen karena faktor musiman, seiring investor Jepang membeli AS untuk keperluan pembukuan sebelum akhir tahun fiskal Jepang pada akhir bulan.

"Bias ini dengan kenaikan lebih, meskipun yang bertahap dan moderat, untuk dollar terhadap yen di sisa bulan tersebut," ujar Hiroshi Maeba, seorang dealer senior foreign exchange di Nomura Securities.

Kenaikan tajam di atas Y83.00, bagaimanapun, sepertinya tampak tidak untuk sekarang sebagian karena eksportir Jepang akan berselera menjual memasuki kenaikan terbesar, ujar dealer dan analis.

Pelemahan yen selanjutnya bisa juga mendesak investor ritel, yang mengakumulasi taruhan besar baru-baru ini terhadap yen, dengan membeli kembali untuk mengunci dalam profit, ujar Osamu Takashima, kepala pakar foreign exchange di Citibank Japan.

Pukul 11.50 WIB, dollar berada di Y82.84, naik dari Y82.67 di New York Selasa kemarin. Euro di Y115.05, naik dari Y114.96.

Tidak ada dampak pasar signifikan dari gempa berkekuatan 7,3 yang menghantam timur laut Jepang di pagi hari lalu. Laporan awal menunjukkan sedikit kerusakan dari gempa itu, yang terpusat di lepas pantai.

Dealer mengatakan euro dapat menghadapi resiko turun dari lelang obligasi pemerintah Portugal di hari nanti. Pelemahan bisa menyorot kekhawatiran yang masih ada atas masalah utang negara di zona-eropa terhadap penurunan mata uang tersebut.

Tetapi ekspektasi harga minyak meninggi dan faktor-faktor lain meningkatkan kesempatan langkah dekat oleh the European Central Bank (ECB) untuk mengetatkan kebijakan moneter akan terus mendukung euro, ujar dealer.

"Pasar tampak lebih terfokus pada ekspektasi itu sebagai kemungkinan naiknya suku bunga oleh ECB segera dari ekspektasi sebelumnya pada penurunan resiko fiskal sekarang," ujar Maeba dari Nomura Securities.

Pukul 11.50 WIB, euro berada di $1.3888 dibanding dengan $1.3905 di New York Selasa kemarin. Indeks Dollar, yang mengukur mata uangnya terhadap sejumlah mata uang utama termasuk yen dan euro, berada di 76.870 dari 76.786.

Pembelian oleh investor Jepang menjelang akhir tahun fiskal negara pada akhir Maret tengah melambungkan USD/JPY dan sedikit EUR/JPY, dengan gempa bumi yang melanda lepas pantai utara Jepang waktu Tokyo pagi lalu bukan faktor turunnya JPY, ujar seorang dealer senior di bank besar Jepang.

USD/JPY bisa naik ke 83.00, tetapi kenaikan tajam kemungkinan tidak sekarang seiring "ada cukup banyak penawaran di level itu juga," ujarnya.

USD/JPY naik di 82.89, menjauhi low sebelumnya di 82.65, sementara EUR/JPY berada di 115.04 dari low sebelumnya di 114.94.
Pembelian oleh investor Jepang menjelang akhir tahun fiskal negara pada akhir Maret tengah melambungkan USD/JPY dan sedikit EUR/JPY, dengan gempa bumi yang melanda lepas pantai utara Jepang waktu Tokyo pagi lalu bukan faktor turunnya JPY, ujar seorang dealer senior di bank besar Jepang.

USD/JPY bisa naik ke 83.00, tetapi kenaikan tajam kemungkinan tidak sekarang seiring "ada cukup banyak penawaran di level itu juga," ujarnya.

USD/JPY naik di 82.89, menjauhi low sebelumnya di 82.65, sementara EUR/JPY berada di 115.04 dari low sebelumnya di 114.94.

AUD/USD sedikit turun karena data keuangan perumahan mengecewakan, tetapi tidak banyak mengekspektasi turun dengan tetap adanya laporan pekerjaan besok, ujar Chris Gore, seorang analis mata uang dan trader bersama Go Markets.

AUD/USD berada di 1.0072 dari 1.0104 sebelum data keuangan perumahan Januari menunjukkan turun 4.5% di bulan tersebut, hingga bagian penurunan pun muncul dari kekhawatiran global meluas.

"Ada sedikit keraguan unit lokal itu akan sangat tergantung pada data pekerjaan besok, bagaimanapun kami mengekspektasi petunjuk utama jangka pendek datang dari luar negeri- khususnya harga minyak dan dan dugaan seputar kejatuhan ekonomi daripadanya," ujar Gore.
USD/JPY bisa melonjak ke 83.50 dalam waktu dekat jika ketidakpastian atas perekonomian AS memudar dan ini menggerakkan Treasurys yields AS naik, ujar Keiji Matsumoto, pakar mata uang di Nikko Cordial Securities.

"Satu titik fokus besar adalah arah kredit AS yang disebabkan quantitative easing," ujarnya, menambahkan, "pandangan terbagi saat ini" antara para anggota dewan Fed tentang bagaimana untuk menangani program pembelian obligasi $600 miliar yang diekspekatsi berlangsung sampai Juni.

Matsumoto mengatakan ketika sikap Fed menjadi jelas, itu dapat memberikan petunjuk untuk USD/JPY. Pasangan mata uang tersebut sangat mungkin tetap pada kisaran 81-84 untuk sementara.

Seorang trader di bank besar Jepang mengatakan eksportir sebagian besar telah menyelesaikan penjualan USD mereka menjelang penutupan bukunya pada akhir Maret dan tidak terburu-buru menjual USD di level saat ini.

Pasangan mata uang ini berada di 82.85 dari 82.67 di perdagangan New York Selasa kemarin.

USD/JPY sepertinya terjebak pada kisaran 81.00-83.00 untuk sementara karena order jual eksportir di atas 83.00 dapat menghambat kenaikan pasangan mata uang tersebut, Osamu Takashima, kepala pakar di Citi Bank Japan, mengatakan dalam catatan harian.

Di sana dapat juga permintaan kuat untuk yen jika jatuh, dari investor ritel yang memegang besar posisi jual JPY, tambah Takashima.

Sementara itu, perhatian pasar tengah merubah pemulihan ekonomi AS dari resiko geopolitik di Timur Tengah dan Afrika Utara. Kenaikan baru-baru ini di pasar suku bunga AS dipertajam dengan merobohkan dollar AS, ujar Takashima.

USD/JPY berada di 82.85 setelah naik ke 82.90 sebelumnya dari 82.67 di New York Selasa kemarin.
The euro stood alone Wednesday as tensions increased peripheral. EUR / USD through the intraday low 1.3872, EUR / JPY down 30 points, followed by low 114.82.
While EUR / CHF fell sharply by 30 points through the intraday low 1.2955 after the release of CPI Switzerland February.
CPI at 0.4% not 0.3% as analysts' expectations. In the peripheral countries the euro zone yield spread widened, with Ireland and Portugal under pressure.

Dollar rises moderately against the yen in Asia on Wednesday (9 / 3) because Japanese investors took in Treasury yields edged up on Tuesday the U.S. as a guide to buying U.S. dollars, although dealers said Japanese exporters sell order will restrict further increases.
For the rest of the global day, attention will be on offer at the U.S. Treasury $ 21 billion in 10-year notes, with a yield increase may push the dollar to around Y83.00, dealers said.
Analysts said Treasury yields may continue to fluctuate even if 10 years of strong sales of bids after the auction either from sales of 3-year notes on Tuesday was not enough to close the entire curve.
"The 3-year note auction yesterday's strong, but U.S. Treasury yields continue to range," said Sumino Kamei, a senior analyst in global currency research at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.
Dealers said the dollar also helped the yen due to seasonal factors, as Japanese investors bought U.S. for bookkeeping purposes before the end of Japanese fiscal year at the end of the month.
"This bias to increase more, although a gradual and moderate, for the dollar against the yen in the rest of the month," said Hiroshi Maeba, a senior foreign exchange dealer at Nomura Securities.
A sharp rise above Y83.00, however, does not seem likely for now partly because Japanese exporters will have appetite to sell into the largest increases, dealers and analysts said.
Further weakening yen could also urged retail investors, who accumulate large stakes recently against the yen, to buy back to lock in profits, said Osamu Takashima, chief foreign exchange expert at Citibank Japan.
At 11:50 pm, the dollar was at Y82.84, up from Y82.67 in New York Tuesday. Euro at Y115.05, up from Y114.96.
There is no significant market impact from the quake measuring 7.3 that struck northeastern Japan in the morning last. Initial reports showed little damage from the quake, centered off the coast.
Dealers said the euro may face the risk out of the Portuguese government bond auction later in the day. The weakening can highlight that there are still concerns over the debt problems of countries in the euro zone to the decline of the currency.
But expectations of rising oil prices and other factors increase the chance step closer by the European Central Bank (ECB) to tighten monetary policy will continue to support the euro, dealers said.
"The market seems more focused on expectations that a possible rise in interest rates by the ECB immediately from previous expectations of a reduction in fiscal risks now," said Maeba from Nomura Securities.
At 11:50 GMT, the euro was at $ 1.3888 compared with $ 1.3905 in New York Tuesday. The Dollar Index, which measures the currency against a number of major currencies including the yen and the euro, was at 76,870 from 76,786.

 
Purchases by Japanese investors towards the end of state fiscal year in late March was catapulted USD / JPY and slightly EUR / JPY, with the earthquake that struck off the northern coast of Japan in Tokyo morning and was not JPY falling factor, said a senior dealer at a big Japanese bank.
USD / JPY could rise to 83.00, but a sharp rise unlikely now as "there are quite a lot of bidding on that level too," he said.
USD / JPY rose at 82.89, away from the previous low at 82.65, while EUR / JPY was at 115.04 from the previous low at 114.94.

Purchases by Japanese investors towards the end of state fiscal year in late March was catapulted USD / JPY and slightly EUR / JPY, with the earthquake that struck off the northern coast of Japan in Tokyo morning and was not JPY falling factor, said a senior dealer at a big Japanese bank.
USD / JPY could rise to 83.00, but a sharp rise unlikely now as "there are quite a lot of bidding on that level too," he said.
USD / JPY rose at 82.89, away from the previous low at 82.65, while EUR / JPY was at 115.04 from the previous low at 114.94.

 
AUD / USD slightly down due to housing finance data disappointing, but not many expect the fall to keep the jobs report tomorrow, said Chris Gore, a currency analyst and trader with Go Markets.
AUD / USD was at 1.0072 from 1.0104 before the data in January showed housing finance fell 4.5% in the month, until the decline arose from widespread global concern.
"There is little doubt that the local unit would be dependent on the jobs data tomorrow, however we expect the short-term major clue came from abroad-particularly oil prices and expectations about the economic fallout from it," said Gore.

USD / JPY could rise to 83.50 in the near future if the uncertainty over the U.S. economy is fading and yields move U.S. Treasurys rose, said Keiji Matsumoto, currency strategist at Nikko Cordial Securities.
"One major focal point is the direction the U.S. credit that caused quantitative easing," he said, adding, "currently divided views" between the Fed board members about how to handle the bond purchase program diekspekatsi $ 600 billion, which lasted until June.
Matsumoto said that when the Fed's attitude became clear, it can provide clues for USD / JPY. Currency pair is likely to remain in the range of 81-84 for a while.
A trader at a big Japanese bank said exporters had been largely completed the sale of USD them towards the close of his book in late March and not in a hurry to sell USD at current levels.
Currency pair is in the 82.85 from 82.67 in New York trading Tuesday.

 
USD / JPY seemed stuck in the range of 81.00-83.00 for a while because exporters selling orders above 83.00 can inhibit the increase in the currency pair, Osamu Takashima, chief expert at the Citi Bank Japan, said in a diary.
There can also be strong demand for yen if it falls, from retail investors who hold large positions JPY selling, Takashima added.
Meanwhile, middle market attention alter the U.S. economic recovery from geopolitical risks on the Middle East and North Africa. The recent increase in U.S. interest rates markets sharpened by pulling down the U.S. dollar, Takashima said.
USD / JPY was at 82.85 after earlier rising to 82.90 from 82.67 in New York Tuesday.


Market Data Calendar :
DateTime & Date OptionsGMT+7CurrencyImpactDetailActualForecastPreviousChart
Thu
Mar 10
1:30amUSD
Treasury Sec Geithner Speaks
3:00amNZD
Official Cash Rate
2.75%
3.00%
3:00amNZD
RBNZ Press Conference
3:00amNZD
RBNZ Rate Statement
3:00amNZD
RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
4:00amEUR
Buba President Weber Speaks
10th-13thNZD
REINZ HPI m/m
-2.6%
6:50amJPY
Final GDP q/q
-0.3%
-0.3%
6:50amJPY
CGPI y/y
1.9%
1.6%
6:50amJPY
Final GDP Price Index y/y
-1.6%
-1.6%
7:30amAUD
Employment Change
21.5K
24.0K
7:30amAUD
Unemployment Rate
5.0%
5.0%
TentativeCNY
Trade Balance
4.9B
6.5B
10th-15thCNY
Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y
23.4%
1:00pmJPY
Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y
89.8%
1:30pmEUR
French Final Non-Farm Payrolls q/q
0.2%
0.2%
2:00pmEUR
German Trade Balance
14.3B
14.0B
2:45pmEUR
French Industrial Production m/m
0.8%
0.3%
4:00pmEUR
ECB Monthly Bulletin
4:00pmEUR
Italian Industrial Production m/m
0.7%
0.3%
4:30pmGBP
Manufacturing Production m/m
0.8%
-0.1%
4:30pmGBP
Industrial Production m/m
0.5%
0.5%
7:00pmGBP
Asset Purchase Facility
200B
200B
7:00pmGBP
Official Bank Rate
0.50%
0.50%
TentativeGBP
MPC Rate Statement
8:15pmAUD
RBA Gov Stevens Speaks
8:30pmCAD
Trade Balance
2.4B
3.0B
8:30pmUSD
Trade Balance
-41.3B
-40.6B
8:30pmUSD
Unemployment Claims
373K
368K
10:00pmEUR
Buba President Weber Speaks
TentativeGBP
NIESR GDP Estimate
-0.1%
10:30pmUSD
Natural Gas Storage
-72B
-85B





Trading Plan



USD-JPY
BUY
82.98
SELL
82.53
BUY BREAK
83.59
SELL BREAK
82.04
TAKE PROFIT
0.50
STOP LOSS
0.30
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

82.91
82.74
82.56
             Trend : Down
83.10

82.38

83.27

82.19





AUD-USD
BUY
1.0128
SELL
1.0075
BUY BREAK
1.0198
SELL BREAK
1.0024
TAKE PROFIT
0.0050
STOP LOSS
0.0030
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

1.0143
1.0104
1.0072
Trend : Up
1.0175

1.0033

1.0214

1.0001





EUR-USD
BUY
1.3922
SELL
1.3877
BUY BREAK
1.3992
SELL BREAK
1.3804
TAKE PROFIT
0.0050
STOP LOSS
0.0030
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

1.3944
1.3898
1.3858
Trend : Up
1.3984

1.3812

1.4030

1.3772





GBP-USD
BUY
1.6220
SELL
1.6175
BUY BREAK
1.6279
SELL BREAK
1.6125
TAKE PROFIT
0.0050
STOP LOSS
0.0030
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

1.6252
1.6196
1.6148
Trend : Up
1.6300

1.6092

1.6356

1.6044





USD-CHF
BUY
0.9338
SELL
0.9293
BUY BREAK
0.9376
SELL BREAK
0.9264
TAKE PROFIT
0.0050
STOP LOSS
0.0030
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

0.9356
0.9314
0.9256
Trend : Down
0.9414

0.9214

0.9456

0.9156






EUR-JPY
BUY
115.18
SELL
114.73
BUY BREAK
115.69
SELL BREAK
114.14
TAKE PROFIT
000.50
STOP LOSS
000.30
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

115.33
115.06
114.83
Trend : Up
115.56

114.56

115.83

114.33


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