Jumat, 11 Maret 2011

Analisa Forex Market 11 Maret 2011

Ekonomi Global; Pada penutupan perdagangan di Wall Street kemarin  (10/03), Bursa mencapai level terendah dalam 12 tahun. Indeks S&P 500 mengalami penurunan sebesar 1.8 poin (0.1%) dan ditutup pada posisi 1320.02 poin. Indeks Dow Jones mengalami penurunan tipis 1.29 poin dan berakhir pada posisi 12213.09 poin. Nasdaq komposit mengalami penurunan sebesar 14.05 poin (0.5%) dan ditutup pada posisi 2751.72 poin. Diperkirakan pada perdagangan selanjutnya, bursa saham Wall Street masih akan kuat dipengaruhi sentimen yang berkaitan dengan kondisi ekonomi AS dan global secara umum serta perkembangan konflik di Timur Tengah.

Kawasan Australia: Harapan meningkatnya data pertumbuhan jumlah pekerja di Australia sebesar 20.000 orang, ternyata malah mengalami penurunan pada pengumuman Kamis (10/03), yaitu penurunan jumlah pekerja sebesar 10.000 orang. Hal ini berimbas dengan tertekannya Aussie, dan diperkirakan Aussie cenderung bergerak defensive.

Kawasan Amerika: Rilis data Neraca Perdagangan serta data tenaga kerja Unemployment Claims mingguan akan menjadi perhatian pasar khusus pada Kamis malam ini; demikian juga data Retail Sales serta sentiemn konsumen atau Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment di Jumat malam.

Kawasan Inggris dan Eropa: Pengumuman Official Bank Rate yang baru saja dirilis oleh Bank of England Kamis (10/03) hari ini, sesuai perkiraan pasar, tetap ditahan 0.50% dari nilai sebelumnya yaitu 0.50. Hal ini berimbas melemah Sterling terhadap Dollar AS.

FOREX; GDP Q4 Jepang yang diharapkan mengalami kontraksi sebesr 1.2% ternyata melampaui estimasi yaitu sebesar 1.3% dibandingkan periode yang sama tahun sebelumnya, hal ini berimbas penurunan nilai tukar dolar terhadap yen. Pada perdagangan hari ini, Yen kembali menjadi pilihan yang lebih aman di tengah gejolak ekonomi. Dolar-yen saat ini berada pada posisi 82.70.

Jajak pendapat sejumlah ekonom yang menyatakan data terkini indikator French Industrial Production m/m diperkirakan dapat semakin baik menjadi 0.6% dari 0.3% , teryata justru ditanggapi dengan spekulasi terhadap data aktual menyebabkan pergerakan yang berlawanan arah dengan estimasi ekonom, akibatnya pair EUR/USD tertekan hingga berada pada kisaran 1.3819.

POUNDSTERLING; Hasil pengumuman National Statistics pada hari ini (10/03) melaporkan adanya peningkatan performa pada sektor manufaktur Inggris, direspon positif di pasar forex sehingga Poundsterling bergerak menguat pada pair GBP/JPY . Namun sore hari ini (10/03) saat Bank Of England mengumumkan ditahannya Official Bank Rate pada level 0.50%, Sterling terpantau kembali melemah terhadap Dollar AS dan berada pada kisaran 1.6175.

EMAS; Harga emas untuk perdagangan malam hari ini (10/3) mengalami penurunan sebesar 11,6 dollar menjadi 1418,75 dollar per troy ons dengan level support sebesar 1416,05 dollar per troy ons dan level resistant sebesar 1431,65 dollar per troy ons.. Turunnya pergerakan emas dipicu oleh naiknya nilai tukar dollar terhadap beberapa mata uang mayoritas seperti pounds dan euro. Turunnya pounds disebabkan oleh kebijakan bank sentral Inggris yang tetap menahan suku bunga di posisi 0,5%. Harga emas diperkirakan akan masih berpeluang melemah terkait sentimen negatif dari rencana OPEC yang akan menambah pasokan minyaknya.
 
Global Economy; At the close of trading on Wall Street yesterday (03/10), Exchange reached its lowest level in 12 years. S & P 500 Index declined 1.8 points (0.1%) and closed at 1320.02 points. The Dow Jones experienced a slight decline points 1:29 and ends at the position of 12213.09 points. The Nasdaq composite declined by 14.05 points (0.5%) and closed at 2751.72 points. It is estimated that on the next trading, Wall Street is still going strongly influenced sentiment associated with the U.S. and global economic conditions in general and the development of conflict in the Middle East.
Regions Australia: Expectations increase in data growth in the number of workers in Australia of 20,000 people, turned out to experience a decrease in the announcement Thursday (03/10), the decrease in the number of workers amounted to 10,000 people. This was affected by depressed Aussie, Aussie, and is expected to tend to move defensive.
Regions America: Release Trade Balance data and employment data weekly Unemployment Claims will be a special market attention on Thursday night, as well as Retail Sales data and consumer sentiemn or Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment on Friday night.
UK and European Regions: Official Bank Rate Announcement has just been released by the Bank of England on Thursday (03/10) today, according to market estimates, remained in detention 0.50% from the previous value of 0.50. This affects Sterling weakened against the U.S. dollar.

 
FOREX; Japan Q4 GDP expected to contract 1.2% sebesr which turned out to exceed estimates of 1.3% over the same period the previous year, it affects the exchange rate of dollar decline against the yen. In trading today, the yen back into safer option amid economic turmoil. Dollar-yen is currently located at position 82.70.
The poll of economists who claim the most recent data indicator French Industrial Production m / m is estimated to be 0.6% better than 0.3%, teryata instead responded with speculation on the cause of actual data movement in the opposite direction with economist estimates, resulting in the pair EUR / USD depressed until in the range of 1.3819.
Pounds; The National Statistics announced today (03/10) reported an increase in performance in the UK manufacturing sector, responded positively in the forex market so the move to strengthen the pound sterling GBP / JPY. But this afternoon (03/10) when the Bank of England announced the arrest of the Official Bank Rate at 0.50% level, was observed to re-Sterling weakened against the U.S. Dollar and in the range of 1.6175.
GOLD: Gold prices to trade this evening (10 / 3) has decreased by 11.6 dollars to 1418.75 dollars per troy ounce with the support level at 1416.05 dollars per troy ounce and resistant level at 1431.65 dollars per troy oz .. The fall in gold movements triggered by the rising exchange value of the dollar against some currencies such as pounds and euros majority. The descent of pounds is caused by the UK central bank's policy while continuing to hold interest rates at 0.5% position. Gold prices are expected to weaken still more likely related to the negative sentiment from the OPEC plan that will increase the supply of oil.
   
 Market Data Calendar :
Date GMT+7 Currency
 Impact Detail Actual Forecast Previous Chart
Fri
Mar 11
2:00 USD
Federal Budget Balance
-235.1B
-49.8B
11th-13th NZD
REINZ HPI m/m
-2.6%
4:45 NZD
FPI m/m
1.8%
9:00 CNY
CPI y/y
4.8%
4.9%
9:00 CNY
Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y
23.3%
24.5%
9:00 CNY
Industrial Production y/y
13.3%
13.5%
9:00 CNY
NBS Press Conference
9:00 CNY
PPI y/y
7.0%
6.6%
9:00 CNY
Retail Sales y/y
19.0%
19.1%
10th-15th CNY
New Loans
604B
1040B
10th-15th CNY
M2 Money Supply y/y
17.0%
17.2%
9:45 AUD
RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks
11th-15th CNY
Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y
23.4%
14:00 EUR
German Final CPI m/m
0.5%
0.5%
14:00 EUR
German WPI m/m
1.0%
1.2%
All Day EUR
EU Economic Summit
16:30 GBP
PPI Input m/m
1.3%
1.7%
16:30 GBP
PPI Output m/m
0.7%
1.0%
19:00 CAD
Employment Change
31.3K
69.2K
19:00 CAD
Unemployment Rate
7.7%
7.8%
20:30 USD
Core Retail Sales m/m
0.7%
0.3%
20:30 USD
Retail Sales m/m
0.6%
0.3%
20:30 USD
FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
21:55 USD
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
77.3
77.5
21:55 USD
Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations
3.4%
22:00 USD
Business Inventories m/m



Trading Plan



USD-JPY
BUY
83.18
SELL
82.73
BUY BREAK
83.59
SELL BREAK
82.34
TAKE PROFIT
0.50
STOP LOSS
0.30
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

83.19
82.94
82.72
             Trend : Up
83.41

82.47

83.66

82.25





AUD-USD
BUY
1.0066
SELL
1.0021
BUY BREAK
1.0139
SELL BREAK
0.9974
TAKE PROFIT
0.0050
STOP LOSS
0.0030
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

1.0090
1.0042
0.9962
Trend : Down
1.0170

0.9914

1.0218

0.9834





EUR-USD
BUY
1.3853
SELL
1.3808
BUY BREAK
1.3941
SELL BREAK
1.3746
TAKE PROFIT
0.0050
STOP LOSS
0.0030
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

1.3887
1.3829
1.3737
Trend : Down
1.3979

1.3679

1.4037

1.3587





GBP-USD
BUY
1.6131
SELL
1.6086
BUY BREAK
1.6199
SELL BREAK
1.6014
TAKE PROFIT
0.0050
STOP LOSS
0.0030
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

1.6171
1.6107
1.5999
Trend : Down
1.6279

1.5935

1.6343

1.5827





USD-CHF
BUY
0.9349
SELL
0.9304
BUY BREAK
0.9376
SELL BREAK
0.9226
TAKE PROFIT
0.0050
STOP LOSS
0.0030
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

0.9365
0.9325
0.9283
Trend : Down
0.9407

0.9243

0.9447

0.9201






EUR-JPY
BUY
115.18
SELL
114.73
BUY BREAK
115.69
SELL BREAK
114.14
TAKE PROFIT
000.50
STOP LOSS
000.30
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

115.10
114.67
114.06
Trend : Down
115.71

113.63

116.14

113.02

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