Senin, 21 Maret 2011

Analisa Forex Market 21 Maret 2011

Untuk indikator ekonomi global, pada pekan ini akan diisi hanya beberapa rilis berita ekonomi penting. Secara umum, rilis data ekonomi yang kiranya perlu diperhatikan investor minggu ini, adalah:
Dari kawasan Amerika: berupa rilis data Existing Home Sales pada Senin malam; selanjutnya New Home Sales pada Rabu malam; kemudian ke data Core Durable Goods Orders serta data tenaga kerja Unemployment Claims mingguan yang biasa menjadi perhatian pasar dirilis pada Kamis malam.
o Dari kawasan Inggris dan Eropa: berupa data MPC Meeting Minutes dari Inggris pada Rabu sore; dan data German Ifo Business Climate pada Jumat sore.

Minggu lalu di pasar forex, nilai tukar mata uang dollar melorot di tengah kesepakatan G7 untuk melakukan aksi intervensi bersama untuk melemahkan mata uang yen yang mendadak menguat tajam setelah isyu radiasi nuklir merebak di Jepang, dengan index dollar AS berakhir di level 75.570. Sementara itu, pekan yang lalu euro berbalik menguat dalam pelemahan dollar, dengan euro berakhir di level 1.4168. Untuk minggu berjalan ini market range akan berada antara level resistance pada 1.4278 dan berikutnya di 1.4560, sedangkan level support di 1.3862 dan kemudian pada 1.3703.

Poundsterling minggu lalu umumnya menguat terbatas terhadap dollar ke level 1.6222. Untuk minggu ini, level resistance terdekat pada 1.6343 dan kemudian 1.6460, sedang support berada pada 1.5977 dan kemudian 1.5745. Untuk USDJPY minggu lalu jatuh ke level terendahnya sepanjang sejarah setelah berita isyu radiasi nuklir merebak di Jepang sampai ke level 76.33 di Kamis subuh WIB, dan kemudian rebound lagi dengan intervensi Bank of Japan yang kemudian disepakati ditunjang oleh G7 yang menutup minggu di 80.69. Gejolak bahaya nuklir Jepang, telah mendorong pembelian yen sebagai safe haven investment yang kemudian dilawan dengan penjualan yen dalam koalisi intervensi anggota G7 yang pertama setelah satu decade. Pasar di minggu ini berada di antara resistance pada 83.28 dan 84.50, serta support level pada 76.33. Sementara itu, Aussie dollar terpantau seminggu lewat melemah dan flktuatif serta berakhir di 0.9969. Range minggu ini antara resistance 1.0230 dan 1.03 sementara support level di 0.9540.

Untuk pasar di stock index futures, pada minggu lalu indeks Nikkei mengalami tekanan besar setelah berita radiasi nuklir menguatirkan pasar dengan pasar yang sangat fluktuatif, berakhir pada 9140 setelah sempat anjlok sampai 7800. Minggu ini, dengan bencana nuklir yang menghadang dan serangan sekutu ke Libya, Nikkei berjangka akan cenderung tertekan dalam rentangan resistance terdekat yang turun lagi pada 9755 dan level berikutnya di 10325. Adapun support pada level 7800 dan lalu 7000. Sementara itu, Indeks Hang Seng berjangka di Hong Kong minggu lalu juga tertekan, ditutup di level 22255. Minggu ini akan tertekan dan berada dalam range level resistance di 23895 dan berikutnya 24945, sementara support-nya di 21520 selanjutnya 20240.
  

Untuk pasar emas, minggu lalu bergerak volatile di mana sempat melemah oleh kekuatiran pengurangan demand global, namun melonjak lagi dengan naiknya risiko bencana di Jepang serta panasnya situasi di Libya. Emas di LLG minggu lalu berakhir pada level $1418.45 per troy ounce. Untuk sepekan ke depan emas akan cenderung terangkat sebagai wujud investasi safe haven, dengan rentang berada antara resistance terdekat pada $1444 lalu level $1450. Sementara itu, support ada di $1380 serta support berikut $1307 per troy ounce. Di Indonesia, harganya berfluktuasi dan berakhir masih sekitar Rp400 ribu per gramnya, di tengah rupiah yang terapresiasi.

Volatilitas pasar terpantau meningkat pesat belakangan ini. Isyu panas dengan situasi geopolitik kawasan Arab dan Timur Tengah serta bencana dahsyat gempa bumi di Jepang yang berlanjut kepada radiasi reaktor nuklir negara dengan ekonomi terbesar ketiga di dunia ini menjadi pemicu utamanya. Banyak ketidakjelasan pasar sepertinya saat ini. Di sisi lain, kondisi sekarang bisa memberi keuntungan besar bagi investor yang bermain dalam jangka pendek. 


For the global economic indicators, in this week will be filled only some important economic news releases. In general, economic data releases that investors would need to be considered this week are: From the Americas: a data releases Existing Home Sales on Monday night, the next New Home Sales on Wednesday night, then to the Core Durable Goods Orders data and data workers Unemployment Claims Typical weekly market attention was released on Thursday night. o From the UK and European regions: the form data from the UK MPC Meeting Minutes on Wednesday afternoon, and data Ifo Business Climate Germany on Friday afternoon.
Last week in the forex market, the dollar exchange rate fell in the middle of the G7 agreement to conduct joint intervention action to weaken the yen is suddenly rose sharply after the issue of nuclear radiation spreading in Japan, with U.S. dollar index ended at 75,570 level. Meanwhile, last week turned the euro rose in the weakening dollar, the euro ended at 1.4168 level. To run this week market will be range between resistance level at 1.4278 and the next at 1.4560, while the support level at 1.3862 and then at 1.3703.
Pounds Sterling last week generally limited to the dollar strengthened to a level of 1.6222. For this week, the nearest resistance level at 1.6343 and then 1.6460, while support is at 1.5977 and then 1.5745. For USDJPY last week fell to its lowest level in history after news spread of nuclear radiation issues in Japan up to the 76.33 level on Thursday morning local time, and then rebounded again with the intervention of the Bank of Japan who later supported by the G7 agreed that closing the week at 80.69. Turmoil is the danger of nuclear Japan, have pushed the yen as a safe-haven buying an investment that later fought with the coalition intervention sales of yen in the first G7 members after a decade. Markets this week were among the resistance at 83.28 and 84.50, and the support level at 76.33. Meanwhile, the Aussie dollar weakened and monitored through flktuatif week and ending at 0.9969. This week range between 1.0230 resistance and 1:03 while the support level at 0.9540.
For the market in stock index futures, at last week's Nikkei index suffered great pressure after the news of nuclear radiation with the market worried that the market is very volatile, ending in 9140 after being dropped until 7800. This week, with nuclear disaster confronting us and attack allied to Libya, the Nikkei futures will tend to be depressed in the nearest resistance range is down again at the next level in 9755 and 10 325. The level of support in 7800 and then 7000. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng index futures in Hong Kong last week also depressed, closed at 22,255 level. This week will be depressed and be in the range of resistance level at 23,895 and 24,945 the next, while his support in the next 21 520 20 240.
  
For the gold market, last week's volatile moves where was weakened by worries of global demand reduction, but rose again with increased risk of disasters in Japan and the heat of the situation in Libya. Gold in LLG last week end at the level of $ 1,418.45 per troy ounce. For next week gold will likely rise as a form of safe haven investment, with the range being between closest resistance level at $ 1,444 and $ 1,450. Meanwhile, support is at $ 1,380 and below $ 1,307 support per troy ounce. In Indonesia, the price fluctuated and ended still around Rp400 thousand per gram, in the middle of the rupiah has appreciated.
Market volatility was observed to increase rapidly in recent years. Hot issue in the Arab region's geopolitical situation and the Middle East as well as catastrophic earthquake in Japan which continues to radiation, nuclear reactor with the country's third largest economy in the world to be the main trigger. Much like the current market uncertainty. On the other hand, current conditions could give a big advantage for investors who play in the short term.


Trading Plan



USD-JPY
BUY
80.73
SELL
80.28
BUY BREAK
82.01
SELL BREAK
78.54
TAKE PROFIT
0.50
STOP LOSS
0.30
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

82.06
80.49
79.02
             Trend : Up
83.53

77.45

85.10

75.98





AUD-USD
BUY
0.9936
SELL
0.9891
BUY BREAK
1.0084
SELL BREAK
0.9854
TAKE PROFIT
0.0050
STOP LOSS
0.0030
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

1.0038
0.9912
0.9837
Trend : Up
1.0113

0.9711

1.0239

0.9636





EUR-USD
BUY
1.4145
SELL
1.4100
BUY BREAK
1.4194
SELL BREAK
1.4064
TAKE PROFIT
0.0050
STOP LOSS
0.0030
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

1.4257
1.4121
1.4051
Trend : Up
1.4327

1.3915

1.4463

1.3845





GBP-USD
BUY
1.6204
SELL
1.6159
BUY BREAK
1.6269
SELL BREAK
1.6084
TAKE PROFIT
0.0050
STOP LOSS
0.0030
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

1.6310
1.6180
1.6107
Trend : Up
1.6383

1.5977

1.6513

1.5904





USD-CHF
BUY
0.9045
SELL
0.9000
BUY BREAK
0.9129
SELL BREAK
0.8904
TAKE PROFIT
0.0050
STOP LOSS
0.0030
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

0.9077
0.9021
0.8954
Trend : Down
0.9144

0.8898

0.9200

0.8831






EUR-JPY
BUY
114.14
SELL
113.69
BUY BREAK
114.89
SELL BREAK
112.89
TAKE PROFIT
000.50
STOP LOSS
000.30
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

116.44
113.50
111.41
Trend : Up
118.53

108.47

121.47

106.38



Market Data Calendar :
Mar 21Filter 
DateTime & Date OptionsGMT+7CurrencyImpactDetailActualForecastPreviousChart
Mon
Mar 21
10:00amUSD
Existing Home Sales
5.36M




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