Jumat, 18 Maret 2011

Analisa Forex Market 18 Maret 2011

Ekonomi Global; Adanya ledakan reaktor nuklir di Jepang, krisis di negera-negara Arab seperti Libya yang masih berlanjut dan data ekonomi Amerika Serikat yang lemah, membangkitkan kekhawatiran yang mengakibatkan melorotnya pasar saham Wall Street di Amerika Serikat pada perdagangan Kamis (17/03). Dow Jones Industrial Average mencatat penurunan tajam tiga digit, jatuh 242,12 poin (2,04 persen) menjadi berakhir pada 11.613,30. Indeks komposit teknologi Nasdaq anjlok 50,51 poin (1,89 persen) menjadi 2.616,82, sementara pasar yang luas indeks S & P 500 turun 24,99 poin (1,95 persen) pada 1.256,88.

Kawasan Australia: Rilis data indikator MI Leading Index m/m yang dirilis oleh Melbourne Institute Australia, Rabu (16/03) menunjukkan sinyal adanya perkembangan yang kurang menggembirakan pada ekonomi Australia. Data aktual indikator MI Leading Index m/m dilaporkan mengalami penurunan menjadi -0.1% dari nilai 0.9% pada periode sebelumnya.

Kawasan Amerika: Penahanan suku bunga oleh The Fed, dimana Indikator Federal Funds Rate dilaporkan tetap ditahan pada angka <0.25% dari nilai sebelumnya yaitu <0.25%, direspon positif oleh investor pada perdagangan forex. Federal Open Market Committee dari The Fed AS menyampaikan pada Rabu (16/03) bahwa landasan recovery ekonomi AS semakin kuat, yang ditandai dengan berangsur angsur pulihnya sektor tenaga kerja dan meningkatnya belanja masyarakat dan investasi bisnis dalam perlengkapan dan software. Demikian juga Dollar AS semakin diminati investor forex seiring dengan adanya Indikator Unemployment Claims yang dirilis oleh Department of Labor (17/03) menunjukkan adanya peningkatan performa pada sektor tenaga kerja, yang ditandai dengan turunnya jumlah penduduk AS yang mengajukan klaim tunjangan pengangguran.

Kawasan Inggris dan Eropa: National Statistics Inggris pada Rabu (16/03) melaporkan adanya penurunan performa pada sektor tenaga kerja Inggris. Tingkat pengangguran di Inggris dilaporkan mengalami peningkatan dalam tiga bulan samapi Januari 2011. Rilis aktual menunjukkan bahwa indikator Unemployment Rate naik menjadi 8.0% dimana sebelumnya diperkirakan akan tetap menjadi 7.9% dari nilai pada periode sebelumnya yaitu 7.9% . Laporan memburuknya kinerja tersebut direspon dengan meningkatnya minat investor di pasar forex untuk melepas Poundsterling.


FOREX; Peningkatan performa pada sektor tenaga kerja AS, yang ditandai dengan turunnya jumlah penduduk AS yang mengajukan klaim tunjangan pengangguran, memperkuat Dollar AS terhadap Yen Jepang dan berada pada kisaran 78.86, dimana hal ini diperkirakan akan membawa mata uang USD/JPY dapat menguat lebih lanjut. Sementara itu adanya ekspektasi peningkatan kinerja pada sektor industri di Swiss, berimbas ditekannya Dollar AS oleh Swiss Franc, diperkirakan mata uang USD/CHF ini akan menguat lebih lanjut.

POUNDSTERLING; Indikator Philly Fed Manufacturing Index yang dirilis oleh Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (17/03), menunjukkan adanya peningkatan performa pada sektor manufaktur di negara tersebut, yaitu meningkat menjadi 43.4 dimana sebelumnya diperkirakan akan turun menjadi 29.9 dari nilai sebelumnya yaitu 35.9, yang berimbas pada Dollar AS berbalik menguat terhadap Poundsterling Inggris dan berada pada kisaran 1.6113.

EMAS; Spekulasi adanya penjualan cadangan emas yang dilakukan oleh bank-bank Jepang menyusul adanya kenaikan kebutuhan uang cash masyarakat Jepang paska terjadinya bencana gempa dan tsunami, menurunkan harga emas (17/03). Emas spot turun sebesar 6,6 dollar menjadi 1392,7 dollar per troy ons dengan level support sebesar 1386,22 dollar per troy ons dan level resistant sebesar 1403,89 dollar per troy ons. Untuk selanjutnya pergerakan harga emas diperkirakan akan bergerak terbatas mengingat labilnya kondisi fundamental ekonomi global dan perekonomian Jepang yang belum pulih.

INDEKS; Anjloknya perdagangan di bursa Jepang dan bursa Asia umumnya (17/03) mengakibatkan melemahnya Indeks Hangseng, yang ditutup turun 416,45 poin atau 1,83% menjadi 22284,43 basis poin. Sementara itu di bursa Jepang sendiri, kekhawatiran akan kondisi perekonomian Jepang semakin melemahkan Indeks Nikkei yang anjlok 1,4% menjadi 8962,67 basis poin. Sementara itu
Indeks Kospi ditutup naik 1,06 poin atau 0,05% menjadi 1959,03 basis poin. Rilis data-data ekonomi AS yang dinantikan ini seperti data klaim pengangguran dan tingkat inflasi, akan mempengaruhi perdagangan ketiga indeks ini selanjutnya.



Global Economy: The explosion of a nuclear reactor in Japan, the crisis in the country-Arab countries like Libya that still continues and the United States economic data are weak, raising concerns that resulted melorotnya Wall Street stock market in the United States in trading Thursday (03/17). Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded a sharp triple-digit decline, falling 242.12 points (2.04 percent) to end at 11613.30. Technology-heavy Nasdaq composite index fell 50.51 points (1.89 percent) to 2616.82, while the broad market S & P 500 index fell 24.99 points (1.95 percent) to 1256.88.
Regions Australia: Released MI Leading Index indicator data m / m which was released by the Melbourne Institute of Australia, on Wednesday (03/16) showed signals that are less favorable developments in the Australian economy. Actual data MI Leading Index indicator m / m was reported to drop to -0.1% of the value of 0.9% in the previous period.
Regions America: Detention interest rates by the Fed, where the Federal Funds Rate Indicator reportedly remained in detention at the rate <0.25% from the previous value of <0.25%, responded positively by investors in forex trading. The Federal Open Market Committee of the U.S. Fed delivered on Wednesday (03/16) that the basis of stronger U.S. economic recovery, which is characterized by slowly starting the recovery of the labor sector and increasing public spending and business investment in equipment and software. Likewise, the U.S. dollar forex investors increasingly in demand in line with the Unemployment Claims Indicators released by the Department of Labor (03/17) showed an increase in performance on the labor sector, which is marked by the decline of the U.S. population who filed claims for unemployment benefits.
UK and European Regions: National Statistics UK on Wednesday (03/16) reported a decrease in performance in the UK sector workforce. The unemployment rate in the UK reported an increase in three months till January 2011. The actual release showed that the indicator Unemployment Rate rose to 8.0% where the previously estimated 7.9% will still be of value in the previous period is 7.9%. Deteriorating performance report was responded with increasing interest of investors in the forex market to remove the pound sterling.
FOREX; improvements in performance on the U.S. labor sector, which is characterized by decrease in the number of U.S. residents who filed claims for unemployment benefits, strengthening U.S. dollar against Japanese yen and in the range of 78.86, which is expected to bring the USD / JPY to strengthen further Meanwhile, the expectations for performance improvement in industrial sector in Switzerland, the impact punched by the Swiss Franc U.S. Dollar, the currency is estimated to USD / CHF will be strengthened further.
Pounds; Indicators Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (03/17) resulted in improved performance in the manufacturing sector in these countries, which increased to 43.4 where previously expected to fall to 29.9 from 35.9 the previous value, which impact on the U.S. dollar strengthened against the pound sterling turned Britain and in the range of 1.6113.
GOLD; speculation the sale of gold reserves by Japanese banks following a rising need for cash for the Japanese people after the earthquake and tsunami disasters, reducing the price of gold (17.03). Spot gold fell by 6.6 dollars to 1392.7 dollars per troy ounce with the support level at 1386.22 dollars per troy ounce and resistant level at 1403.89 dollars per troy ounce. For the next movement in gold prices is expected to move is limited given the volatility in global economic conditions and economic fundamentals of Japan are yet to recover.
INDEX: The fall of trade on the stock exchange of Japan and Asia generally (3.17) result in the weakening Hangseng Index, which closed down 416.45 points or 1.83% to 22284.43 basis points. Meanwhile in Japan the stock itself, fears of Japanese economic conditions further weakening the Nikkei Index tumbled 1.4% to 8962.67 basis points. While it Kospi Index closed up 1.06 points, or 0.05% to 1959.03 basis points. Release of U.S. economic data that was anticipated as jobless claims data and the inflation rate, will affect trade in the next third of this index.
Trading Plan





USD-JPY
BUY
78.40
SELL
78.19
BUY BREAK
79.40
SELL BREAK
77.35
TAKE PROFIT
0.50
STOP LOSS
0.30
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

80.26
78.36
76.98
             Trend : Up
81.64

75.08

83.54

73.70





AUD-USD
BUY
0.9821
SELL
0.9776
BUY BREAK
0.9939
SELL BREAK
0.9704
TAKE PROFIT
0.0050
STOP LOSS
0.0030
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

0.9885
0.9797
0.9718
Trend : Up
0.9964

0.9630

1.0052

0.9551





EUR-USD
BUY
1.4008
SELL
1.3963
BUY BREAK
1.4089
SELL BREAK
1.3890
TAKE PROFIT
0.0050
STOP LOSS
0.0030
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

1.4096
1.3984
1.3913
Trend : Up
1.4167

1.3801

1.4279

1.3730





GBP-USD
BUY
1.6119
SELL
1.6074
BUY BREAK
1.6209
SELL BREAK
1.6024
TAKE PROFIT
0.0050
STOP LOSS
0.0030
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

1.6207
1.6095
1.6020
Trend : Up
1.6282

1.5908

1.6394

1.5833





USD-CHF
BUY
0.9902
SELL
0.8957
BUY BREAK
0.9159
SELL BREAK
0.8904
TAKE PROFIT
0.0050
STOP LOSS
0.0030
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

0.9032
0.8978
0.8879
Trend : Down
0.9131

0.8825

0.9185

0.8726






EUR-JPY
BUY
114.14
SELL
113.69
BUY BREAK
114.89
SELL BREAK
112.89
TAKE PROFIT
000.50
STOP LOSS
000.30
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

112.19
109.47
107.88
Trend : Up
113.78

105.16

116.50

103.57



Market Data Calendar :



Mar 18  
Date Time & Date OptionsGMT+7 Currency
 Impact Detail Actual Forecast Previous Chart


Fri
Mar 18
Up Next 7:01 GBP
Nationwide Consumer Confidence
48

47
All Day ALL
G7 Meetings
14:00 EUR
German PPI m/m
0.7%

1.2%
15:15 CHF
PPI m/m
0.4%

0.1%
16:00 EUR
Current Account
-10.6B

-13.3B
16:00 EUR
Italian Trade Balance
-1.98B

-2.72B
16:30 GBP
Prelim Mortgage Approvals
47K

46K
17:00 EUR
Trade Balance
-2.0B

-2.3B
18:00 CAD
Core CPI m/m
0.5%

0.0%
18:00 CAD
CPI m/m
0.4%

0.3%

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