Senin, 07 Maret 2011

Analisa Forex Market 7 Maret 2011

Mata uang rupiah seminggu lalu masih terus menguat dengan masuknya lagi dana asing ke pasar uang, di antaranya ke SUN yang sudah melebihi angka Rp200 triliun, dengan rupiah berakhir di 8790 terhadap USD. Kurs USDIDR pada minggu mendatang berada dalam range resistance 8838 dan 8890, sementara support mengarah ke 8778 dan 8750.

Untuk indikator ekonomi global, pada pekan ini akan diisi beberapa rilis berita ekonomi penting, di antaranya pengumuman suku bunga di New Zealand dan Inggris; keduanya diperkirakan bertahan tetap. Secara umum, rilis data ekonomi yang kiranya perlu diperhatikan investor minggu ini, adalah:
Dari kawasan Amerika: berupa rilis data Neraca Perdagangan serta data tenaga kerja Unemployment Claims mingguan yang biasa menjadi perhatian pasar dirilis pada Kamis malam; kemudian data Retail Sales serta sentiemn konsumen atau Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment di Jumat malam.
o Dari kawasan Inggris dan Eropa: berupa pengumuman suku bunga dari MPC Inggris pada Kamis sore yang kemungkinan tetap di 0.5% yang akan jadi perhatian investor.
o Dari kawasan Australia: berupa pengumuman suku bunga New Zealand (RBNZ) pada Kamis dini hari yang kemungkinan bertahan di 3%, walau ada yang sebutkan akan turun ke 2.75%.

Minggu lalu di pasar forex, nilai tukar mata uang dollar bergerak melemah kembali terhadap kelompok major currencies lainnya di antara signal kuat bahwa ECB akan segera menaikkan suku bunganya sementara the Fed masih bertahan menjaga kestabilan harga umum, dengan index dollar AS berakhir di level 76.400. Sementara itu, pekan yang lalu euro masih cenderung menguat setelah pimpinan ECB, Trichet sendiri menyinggung akan mungkin menaikkan suku bunga bulan depan, dengan euro berakhir di level 1.3982. Untuk minggu berjalan ini market range akan berada antara level resistance pada 1.4278 dan berikutnya di 1.4560, sedangkan level support di 1.3703 dan kemudian pada 1.3423.

Poundsterling minggu lalu umumnya menguat terhadap dollar ke level 1.6268. Untuk minggu ini, level resistance terdekat pada 1.6460 dan kemudian 1.6878, sedang support berada pada 1.6030 dan kemudian 1.5960. Untuk USDJPY minggu lalu cenderung menguat walau masih dalam rentang pasar yang sama selama ini. Pasar di minggu ini berada di antara resistance pada 83.90 dan 84.50, serta support level pada 80.90 dan 80.22. Sementara itu, Aussie dollar terpantau seminggu lewat dalam konsolidasi pasar 1.0135. Range minggu ini tetap antara resistance 1.0230 dan 1.03 sementara support level di 0.9945 dan 0.9794.

Untuk pasar di stock index futures, pada minggu lalu indeks Nikkei mengalami penguatan secara terbatas tertopang oleh melemahnya yen yang memberi dukungan ekspor negeri Jepang, berakhir di 10585. Minggu ini Nikkei berjangka akan dalam rentangan resistance terdekat pada 10900 dan level berikutnya di 11210. Adapun support pada level 10350 dan lalu 10150. Sementara itu, Indeks Hang Seng berjangka di Hong Kong minggu lalu juga merangkak naik, ditutup di level 22321. Minggu ini akan berada dalam range level resistance di 24000 dan berikutnya 24945, sementara support-nya di 22373 selanjutnya 21520.

Bursa saham Wall Street minggu lalu mengalami konsolidasi, setelah pernah mencapai level 32 bulan tertingginya sejak Juni 2008 untuk S&P 500. Situasi harga minyak yang terus membumbung di tengah panasnya perang saudara Libya yang telah menjadi penyebabnya. Secara teknikal, Dow Jones Industrial minggu ini masih dalam situasi konsolidasi dengan rentang pasar antara level resistance di 12387 dan 12600, sementara support di level 11800 dan kemudian pada 11450. Index S&P 500 minggu lalu juga nyaris flat; di mana resistance sekarang di level 1345 dan 1440, sementara level support berada di 1295 dan 1252.

Untuk pasar emas, minggu lalu masih menguat mencetak rekor tertinggi yang baru di $1440 oleh memanasnya situasi geopolitik di khususnya Libya. Emas di LLG minggu lalu berakhir pada level $1429.10 per troy ounce. Untuk sepekan ke depan emas akan diuji untuk menyentuh level rekor tertinggi barunya di $1440, dengan rentang berada antara resistance terdekat pada $1440 lalu level $1450. Sementara itu, support ada di $1393 serta support berikut $1307 per troy ounce. Di Indonesia, harganya terus menanjak ke level harga Rp403 ribu per gramnya, walaupun rupiah sedang terapresiasi.

Situasi geopolitik kawasan Arab dan Timur Tengah masih tetap panas. Barangkali ini masih akan berlangsung terus untuk waktu yang tidak sebentar. Apa yang akan terjadi nantinya di kawasan yang dikenal sejak dulu sebagai hot spot? Sejumlah prediksi kami sebelum ini tentang komoditas dan pergerakan bursa ternyata akurat di antara gejolak kawasan yang terjadi. Di tengah gejolak, investor bisa tetap untung. Itulah baiknya investasi.

Last week the rupiah continues to strengthen with the entry of more foreign funds into the money market, including the GS has exceeded 200 trillion figure, with the rupiah ended at 8790 against the USD. USDIDR Exchange in the coming weeks are in the range of resistance 8838 and 8890, while support led to the 8778 and 8750.
For the global economic indicators, this week will be filled some important economic news releases, including announcement of interest rates in New Zealand and England, both expected to survive anyway. In general, economic data releases that investors would need to be considered this week are: • From the Americas: a release of Trade Balance data and data workers Unemployment Claims Typical weekly market attention was released on Thursday night, and Retail Sales data and consumer sentiemn or Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment on Friday night. o From the UK and European regions: in the form of the MPC interest rate announcement on Thursday afternoon England are likely to remain at 0.5% which will be the attention of investors. o From the Australian region: the form of interest rate announcement in New Zealand (RBNZ) on Thursday morning are likely to survive at 3%, although there is a mention would fall to 2.75%.
Last week in the forex market, currency exchange rates weaken the dollar moved back towards the other major currencies between a strong signal that the ECB will soon raise interest rates while the Fed still survive maintain general price stability, with the U.S. dollar index ended at 76,400 level. Meanwhile, last week the euro was likely to strengthen the leadership of the ECB, Trichet himself alluded will probably raise interest rates next month, with the euro ending at 1.3982 level. To run this week market will be range between resistance level at 1.4278 and the next at 1.4560, while the support level at 1.3703 and then at 1.3423.
Pounds Sterling last week generally strengthened against the dollar to as low as 1.6268. For this week, the nearest resistance level at 1.6460 and then 1.6878, while support is at 1.6030 and then 1.5960. For USDJPY last week tends to strengthen although still within the same range for this market. Markets this week were among the resistance at 83.90 and 84.50, and the support level at 80.90 and 80.22. Meanwhile, the Aussie dollar a week monitored by the market consolidation 1.0135. This week range between resistance remains 1.0230 and 1:03 while the support level at 0.9945 and 0.9794.
For the market in stock index futures, the benchmark Nikkei index suffered last week in a limited strengthening tertopang by the weakening yen, which provides support for Japan's exports of the country, ending at 10,585. This week the Nikkei futures will be in the range of the nearest resistance level at 10,900 and the next at 11,210. The level of support at 10,350 and then 10,150. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng index futures in Hong Kong last week also crept up, closed at 22,321 level. This week will be in the range of resistance level at 24,000 and 24,945 the next, while his support in the next 22 373 21 520.
Wall Street stock market last week suffered consolidation, after 32 months had reached its highest level since June 2008 for the S & P 500. The situation in oil prices continued to soar in the middle of the heat of the Libyan civil war that has become the cause. Technically, the Dow Jones industrial is still in a situation this week with a range of market consolidation among the resistance level at 12,387 and 12,600, while the support at 11,800 level and then at 11,450. S & P 500 Index last week was also nearly flat, in which resistance is now at the level of 1345 and 1440, while the level of support was in 1295 and 1252.
For the gold market, last week still gained a new scoring record highs in 1440 U.S. dollars by the warming of the geopolitical situation in Libya in particular. Gold in LLG last week end at the level of $ 1,429.10 per troy ounce. For the week ahead will be tested for gold touched new record highs at $ 1440, with ranges located between the nearest resistance level at $ 1,440 and $ 1,450. Meanwhile, support is at $ 1,393 and below $ 1,307 support per troy ounce. In Indonesia, the price continued to rise to the level of the price of Rp403 thousand per gram, although the rupiah was appreciated.
Geopolitical situation of the Arab region and the Middle East remains hot. Maybe it still will continue for a long time. What will happen later on in the area known long ago as a hot spot? A number of our earlier predictions about the movement of commodities and the stock was accurate in the region between the shocks that occur. In the midst of turmoil, investors can still profit. That's the best investment.


Market Economic Data Calandar :
Date GMT+7 Currency
 Impact Detail Actual Forecast Previous Chart
Mon
Mar 7
4:45 NZD
Building Consents m/m
-18.6%
5:30am AUD
AIG Construction Index
40.2
7:30am AUD
ANZ Job Advertisements m/m
2.4%
12:00pm JPY
Leading Indicators
101.4%
4:30pm EUR
Sentix Investor Confidence
16.7
7:00pm EUR
ECB President Trichet Speaks
8:30pm CAD
Building Permits m/m
2.4%

Trading Plan



USD-JPY
BUY
82.89
SELL
82.44
BUY BREAK
82.19
SELL BREAK
81.54
TAKE PROFIT
0.50
STOP LOSS
0.30
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

82.70
82.65
82.24
             Trend : Up
83.11

82.19

83.16

81.78





AUD-USD
BUY
1.0141
SELL
1.0096
BUY BREAK
1.0202
SELL BREAK
1.0054
TAKE PROFIT
0.0050
STOP LOSS
0.0030
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

1.0162
1.0117
1.0088
Trend : Down
1.0191

1.0043

1.0236

1.0014





EUR-USD
BUY
1.4005
SELL
1.3960
BUY BREAK
1.4064
SELL BREAK
1.3864
TAKE PROFIT
0.0050
STOP LOSS
0.0030
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

1.4019
1.3981
1.3953
Trend : Down
1.4047

1.3915

1.4085

1.3887





GBP-USD
BUY
1.6313
SELL
1.6268
BUY BREAK
1.6359
SELL BREAK
1.6216
TAKE PROFIT
0.0050
STOP LOSS
0.0030
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

1.6306
1.6271
1.6236
Trend : No trend
1.6341

1.6201

1.6376

1.6166





USD-CHF
BUY
0.9304
SELL
0.9259
BUY BREAK
0.9429
SELL BREAK
0.9184
TAKE PROFIT
0.0050
STOP LOSS
0.0030
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

0.9312
0.9270
0.9207
Trend : Up
0.9375

0.9165

0.9417

0.9102






EUR-JPY
BUY
115.58
SELL
115.13
BUY BREAK
116.14
SELL BREAK
114.09
TAKE PROFIT
000.50
STOP LOSS
000.30
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

115.80
115.34
114.68
Trend : Up
116.46

114.22

116.92

113.56

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