Dollar berhasil rebound terhadap beberapa rivalnya, namun tipis. Hal ini mengindikasikan sentimen terhadap mata uang AS itu masihlah rentan.
Dollar terangkat oleh data manufaktur AS dan pernyataan Ketua the Fed Ben Bernanke. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) semalam mengumumkan indeks manufakturnya untuk Februari naik ke 61,4, tertinggi sejak Mei 2004, dari 60,8 di Januari. Data ini mengurangi keraguan mengenai tingkat pemulihan ekonomi AS.
Greenback juga terangkat oleh Bernanke, yang memberi kesaksian di hadapan Kongres. Ia mengatakan ancaman terhadap pertumbuhan sudah menurun dan risiko deflasi terkendali.
Dalam kesaksiannya, Bernanke juga mengatakan meski ia melihat pemulihan ekonomi, pertumbuhan lapangan kerja masih rendah. Ia juga mengatakan kenaikan harga minyak tidak akan membahayakan ekonomi AS kecuali berlangsung lama.
Pasar memang sudah menduga Bernanke tidak akan mengeluarkan pernyataan hawkish. Namun, Bernanke ternyata tidak menyampaikan pernyataan yang terlalu dovish.
Dollar berhasil menguat terhadap euro, sterling dan aussie. Sayangnya, penguatannya terhadap yen dan franc terkikis karena memburuknya situasi di Timur Tengah. Konflik yang berkecamuk di Libya semakin memanas, dimana pemberontak masih berperang melawan loyalis Gaddafi. Ketidakpastian yang menyelimuti kawasan itu membuat pasar resah.
Selain isu Timur Tengah, dollar akan dipengaruhi oleh data ADP Employment Change, yaitu pertumbuhan lapangan kerja sektor swasta AS. Data itu diperkirakan akan naik sebesar 185.000 di Februari. Data ini merupakan gambaran awal data payroll yang akan diumumkan Jumat nanti.
Pasar juga akan mencermati kesaksian Bernanke di Kongres hari kedua dan laporan ekonomi the Fed yang tertuang dalam Beige Book. Sinyal dovish dari Bernanke dan Beige Book, serta data ADP yang mengecewakan, bisa membuat dollar terkoreksi lagi.
Euro kini bergerak di kisaran $1,37. Meski terkoreksi, euro masih disupport oleh harapan Presiden ECB Jean-Claude Trichet akan menyampaikan pernyataan yang hawkish besok pasca rapat regulernya. Pasar akan mencermati data indeks PPI zona euro untuk Januari, yang bila menunjukkan indikasi inflasi, bisa memperkuat ekspektasi itu.
Bank Sentral Eropa diharapkan menahan suku bunga acuan sebesar 1,00% di bulan Maret. tetapi kemungkinan jika hal ini dilakukan akan memicu peningkatan volatilitas nilai tukar karena investor mempertimbangkan prospek untuk kebijakan di masa depan.
Sebuah survei yang dilakukan Bloomberg News menunjukkan semua dari 53 ekonom yang disurvei memperkirakan ECB akan mempertahankan biaya pinjaman dan tidak ada perubahan untuk bulan ini.
Uni Eropa dijadwalkan mengadakan pertemuan khusus pada 11 Maret. Dewan Pengatur ECB mungkin hanya mengulangi komentar dari tingkat keputusan bulan lalu. Mata uang-tunggal mungkin menghadapi headwinds dalam memasuki kuartal pertama. Dimana para pengambil kebijakan berjuang untuk menghadapi krisis utang eropa.
Sebuah survei yang dilakukan Bloomberg News menunjukkan semua dari 53 ekonom yang disurvei memperkirakan ECB akan mempertahankan biaya pinjaman dan tidak ada perubahan untuk bulan ini.
Uni Eropa dijadwalkan mengadakan pertemuan khusus pada 11 Maret. Dewan Pengatur ECB mungkin hanya mengulangi komentar dari tingkat keputusan bulan lalu. Mata uang-tunggal mungkin menghadapi headwinds dalam memasuki kuartal pertama. Dimana para pengambil kebijakan berjuang untuk menghadapi krisis utang eropa.
Menteri Pertahanan Jerman Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg akhirnya mengundurkan diri. Langkah ini dilakukan Guttenberg setelah ditemukan sejumlah bukti aksi plagiat atas mayoritas isi thesis doktoralnya pada 2006 lalu. Saat ini, gelar PhD sudah dicopot dari Guttenberg.
Sebelum kasus ini terungkap, puluhan ribu akademisi di Jerman sudah menuliskan surat protes kepada Kanselir Jerman Angela Merkel. Hingga akhirnya, skandal plagiat itu membuat Guttenberg dijuluki Baron Cut-and-Paste, Zu Copyberg, dan Zu Googleberg oleh media Jerman. Namun, Merkel terus berada di sisi Guttenberg.
Dalam konferensi pers, Guttenberg mengatakan, hal ini merupakan step yang paling menyakitkan dalam kehidupannya. "Saya dengan berat hati harus menyetujui pendapat musuh saya yang mengatakan saya tidak ditunjuk untuk menjadi menteri pertahanan diri melainkan menteri pertahanan," katanya.
Dia juga bilang, dirinya selalu siap untuk melawan namun Guttenberg mengakui dia sudah mencapai batas kekuatan maksimal untuk melawan.
Sementara itu, Kanselir Merkel bilang, dia sangat optimistis Guttenberg mampu menyelesaikan semua masalah terkait thesisnya. "Saya yakin kami memiliki kesempatan untuk kembali bekerjasama lagi di masa yang akan datang," jelas Merkel seraya menambahkan Guttenberg memiliki kemampuan unik dan tidak biasa dalam menghadapi orang lain.
Sebelum kasus ini terungkap, puluhan ribu akademisi di Jerman sudah menuliskan surat protes kepada Kanselir Jerman Angela Merkel. Hingga akhirnya, skandal plagiat itu membuat Guttenberg dijuluki Baron Cut-and-Paste, Zu Copyberg, dan Zu Googleberg oleh media Jerman. Namun, Merkel terus berada di sisi Guttenberg.
Dalam konferensi pers, Guttenberg mengatakan, hal ini merupakan step yang paling menyakitkan dalam kehidupannya. "Saya dengan berat hati harus menyetujui pendapat musuh saya yang mengatakan saya tidak ditunjuk untuk menjadi menteri pertahanan diri melainkan menteri pertahanan," katanya.
Dia juga bilang, dirinya selalu siap untuk melawan namun Guttenberg mengakui dia sudah mencapai batas kekuatan maksimal untuk melawan.
Sementara itu, Kanselir Merkel bilang, dia sangat optimistis Guttenberg mampu menyelesaikan semua masalah terkait thesisnya. "Saya yakin kami memiliki kesempatan untuk kembali bekerjasama lagi di masa yang akan datang," jelas Merkel seraya menambahkan Guttenberg memiliki kemampuan unik dan tidak biasa dalam menghadapi orang lain.
Sterling ke 1.6415 ?Momentum Bullish Euro Tembus ...EURUSD: Peluang Kembali ke ...GBPUSD: Potensi Bidik 1.6426GBPUSD: Menguat, Bidik 1.6191Monexnews - Reaksi dollar Aussie kembali negatif setelah rilis GDP, yang sebagian besar sesuai dengan ekspektasi. Sementara pertumbuhan di kuartal IV berada hanya +0.7% per tahun yang keluar menjadi +2.7% seperti yang diperkirakan.
Harga awalnya bergerak naik, mencapai 1.0150 tetapi dengan cepat berbalik yang saat ini berada di 1.0125, sesi rendahnya. Pergerakan tersebut terjadi karena adanya penurunan dalam dari 1.020 pada hari Selasa. Aussie masih bertahan kuat, tetapi beberapa koreksi mungkin akan terjadi.
Harga awalnya bergerak naik, mencapai 1.0150 tetapi dengan cepat berbalik yang saat ini berada di 1.0125, sesi rendahnya. Pergerakan tersebut terjadi karena adanya penurunan dalam dari 1.020 pada hari Selasa. Aussie masih bertahan kuat, tetapi beberapa koreksi mungkin akan terjadi.
Pada perdagangan pagi hari ini nilai tukar aussie tampak berpotensi untuk mengalami peningkatan meskipun akan cenderung tertahan oleh kondisi bursa saham Asia yang melemah (02/03). Aussie tampak berusaha untuk rebound setelah rilis data pertumbuhan ekonomi di Australia menunjukkan kenaikan yang lebih besar dari perkiraan.
Laporan pemerintah menunjukan, Belanja konstruksi AS turun dari yang diharapkan pada Januari ke level terendah dalam lima bulan. Diman penurunan ini dipicu oleh lemahnya pengeluaran konstruksi swasta.
Departemen perdagangan mengatakan belanja konstruksi turun 0,7% menjadi tingkat tahunan sebesar $ 791.820.000.000, yang merupakan nilai terendah sejak Agustus.
Departemen perdagangan mengatakan belanja konstruksi turun 0,7% menjadi tingkat tahunan sebesar $ 791.820.000.000, yang merupakan nilai terendah sejak Agustus.
Dalam kesaksian kepada komite pemerintah, Gubernur BoE Mervyn King menegaskan kembali pandangannya bahwa inflasi akan tetap berada di atas target 2,0% bank sentral untuk tahun ini.
Di lain pihak, Deputi Gubernur Charles Bean mengatakan ia prihatin bahwa peningkatan inflasi dapat berlangsung lebih lama dari perkiraan sebelumnya.
Para analis mengatakan komentar dari para pembuat kebijakan BoE menambah posisi bank sentral untuk tidak terburu-buru menaikkan suku bunga sebagai tekanan atas inflasi yang terus berkembang.
Di lain pihak, Deputi Gubernur Charles Bean mengatakan ia prihatin bahwa peningkatan inflasi dapat berlangsung lebih lama dari perkiraan sebelumnya.
Para analis mengatakan komentar dari para pembuat kebijakan BoE menambah posisi bank sentral untuk tidak terburu-buru menaikkan suku bunga sebagai tekanan atas inflasi yang terus berkembang.
Pertumbuhan bisnis AS pada Februari menunjukkan laju tercepat dalam dua dekade. Dimana sektor manufaktur memimpin pemulihan krisis di AS.
Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc mengatakan barometer bisnis naik menjadi 71,2 per Februari dari 68,8 pada bulan Januari. Titik tersebut merupakan level tertinggi sejak bulan Juli 1988. Indeks yang diperkirakan jatuh ternyata bergerak di atas ekspektasi analis yang dihimpun Bloomberg.
Produsen seperti Deere & Co menaikkan perkiraan keuntungan karena nilai ekspor mulai naik. Pembelian rumah meningkat 0,2%. Keputusan Presiden AS Barrack Obama memangkas pajak diperkirakan membuat pendapatan masyarakat menjadi naik. Secara otomatis, keinginan belanja konsumen bisa lebih tinggi. Federal Reserve juga memperkirakan, inflasi jangka panjang masih bisa terkendali.
Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc mengatakan barometer bisnis naik menjadi 71,2 per Februari dari 68,8 pada bulan Januari. Titik tersebut merupakan level tertinggi sejak bulan Juli 1988. Indeks yang diperkirakan jatuh ternyata bergerak di atas ekspektasi analis yang dihimpun Bloomberg.
Produsen seperti Deere & Co menaikkan perkiraan keuntungan karena nilai ekspor mulai naik. Pembelian rumah meningkat 0,2%. Keputusan Presiden AS Barrack Obama memangkas pajak diperkirakan membuat pendapatan masyarakat menjadi naik. Secara otomatis, keinginan belanja konsumen bisa lebih tinggi. Federal Reserve juga memperkirakan, inflasi jangka panjang masih bisa terkendali.
Dollar managed to rebound against some rivals, but thin. This indicates a sentiment against the U.S. currency was still fragile. Dollar lifted by U.S. manufacturing data and a statement of the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index last night announced for February rose to 61.4, the highest since May 2004, from 60.8 in January.This data is to reduce doubts about the level of U.S. economic recovery. The greenback was also lifted by Bernanke, testifying before Congress. He said the threat to growth has decreased and the risk of deflation control. In his testimony, Bernanke also said that while he sees economic recovery, job growth is still low. He also said rising oil prices will not harm the U.S. economy except the last. The market was already guessed Bernanke will not be issued a hawkish statement.However, Bernanke did not submit a statement that is too dovish. Dollar managed to strengthen against the euro, sterling and the Australian dollar.Unfortunately, the gains against the yen and franc eroded because of the deteriorating situation in the Middle East. Conflicts raging in Libya increasingly heated, where the rebels are still fighting against Gaddafi loyalists. The uncertainty that surrounds the area that makes the market nervous. In addition to the Middle East issue, the dollar will be influenced by ADP Employment Change data, namely the growth of U.S. private sector employment. The data is expected to increase by 185,000 in February. This data is an early picture of payroll data that will be announced Friday. The market also will look at Bernanke's testimony to Congress the second day and the Fed's economic report contained in the Beige Book. Dovish signals from Bernanke and the Beige Book, and the ADP data are disappointing, it could make the dollar slid again. The euro is now moving in the range of $ 1.37. Although corrected, the euro is still supported by expectations the ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet will deliver a hawkish statement tomorrow after its regular meeting. The market will look at the euro zone PPI index data for January, which when shown indications of inflation, can strengthen that expectation.
European Central Bank expected to hold interest rate steady at 1.00% in March. but chances are if this is done will lead to increased exchange rate volatility as investors consider the outlook for policy in the future.
A survey conducted by Bloomberg News shows all of the 53 economists surveyed expect the ECB will keep borrowing costs and no changes for this month.
The European Union is scheduled to hold a special meeting on 11 March. ECB Governing Council may only repeat the comments from last month's rate decision.Single-currency headwinds may face in entering the first quarter. Where policy makers struggling to deal with the debt crisis of Europe.
German Defence Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg eventually resigned. Guttenberg move comes after the discovery of evidence of plagiarism action on the majority of the contents of his doctoral thesis in 2006. Currently, a PhD has been removed from Guttenberg.
Before this case came to light, tens of thousands of academics in Germany have written a letter of protest to German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Until finally, it makes Guttenberg plagiarism scandal dubbed Baron Cut-and-Paste, Zu Copyberg, and Zu Googleberg by German media. However, Merkel continues to be on the side of Guttenberg.
In a press conference, Guttenberg said, this is the most painful step in his life. "I reluctantly have to accept the opinion of my enemy said I was not appointed to be minister of defense but the defense minister," he said.
He also said he was always ready to fight but Guttenberg admitted he has reached the limit of maximum strength to resist.
In the meantime, Chancellor Merkel said she was optimistic Guttenberg able to solve all the problems associated thesis. "I believe we have the opportunity to again work together again in the future," said Merkel, adding Guttenberg has a unique and unusual skills in dealing with others.
Sterling to 1.6415? Momentum Bullish Euro Translucent ... EURUSD: Opportunity Back to ... GBPUSD: Potential Shutter 1.6426GBPUSD: Stronger, Shutter 1.6191 Monexnews - Aussie dollar back negative reaction after the release of GDP, largely in accordance with expectations. While growth in the fourth quarter was only +0.7% per year that comes out to be +2.7% as expected. Prices initially moved up, reaching 1.0150 but quickly turned to who currently resides at 1.0125, the session low. The movement occurs because the decrease in from 1020 on Tuesday. The Australian dollar remained strong, but some correction is likely to occur.
In trading this morning the Australian dollar exchange rate seems potentially to have increased even though it would likely restrained by the condition that weakened Asian stock markets (02.03). The Aussie was trying to rebound after the release of economic growth data in Australia show a larger increase than expected.
Government report showed, down from U.S. construction spending is expected in January to its lowest level in five months. Diman decline was triggered by weak spending on private construction.
The Commerce Department said construction spending fell 0.7% to an annual rate of $ 791,820,000,000, which is the lowest value since August.
In testimony to the committee the government, BoE Governor Mervyn King reiterated his view that inflation will remain above the central bank's target of 2.0% this year.
On the other hand, the Deputy Governor Charles Bean said he is concerned that rising inflation could last longer than previous estimates.
Analysts said the comments from BoE policymakers to increase the central bank's position was in no hurry to raise interest rates as pressure on inflation which continues to grow.
U.S. business growth in February showed the fastest pace in two decades. Where the manufacturing sector led the recovery of the crisis in the U.S..
Institute for Supply Management-Chicago business barometer Inc. said as of February rose to 71.2 from 68.8 in January. The point is the highest level since July 1988. The index is expected to fall was moved above analyst expectations compiled by Bloomberg.
Manufacturers such as Deere & Co. to raise the estimated gains because the value of exports began to rise. Purchasing a house increased by 0.2%. U.S. President Barrack Obama's decision to cut taxes is expected to make public income to be rising.Automatically, consumer spending will be higher. The Federal Reserve also estimates, long-term inflation can still be controlled.
European Central Bank expected to hold interest rate steady at 1.00% in March. but chances are if this is done will lead to increased exchange rate volatility as investors consider the outlook for policy in the future.
A survey conducted by Bloomberg News shows all of the 53 economists surveyed expect the ECB will keep borrowing costs and no changes for this month.
The European Union is scheduled to hold a special meeting on 11 March. ECB Governing Council may only repeat the comments from last month's rate decision.Single-currency headwinds may face in entering the first quarter. Where policy makers struggling to deal with the debt crisis of Europe.
German Defence Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg eventually resigned. Guttenberg move comes after the discovery of evidence of plagiarism action on the majority of the contents of his doctoral thesis in 2006. Currently, a PhD has been removed from Guttenberg.
Before this case came to light, tens of thousands of academics in Germany have written a letter of protest to German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Until finally, it makes Guttenberg plagiarism scandal dubbed Baron Cut-and-Paste, Zu Copyberg, and Zu Googleberg by German media. However, Merkel continues to be on the side of Guttenberg.
In a press conference, Guttenberg said, this is the most painful step in his life. "I reluctantly have to accept the opinion of my enemy said I was not appointed to be minister of defense but the defense minister," he said.
He also said he was always ready to fight but Guttenberg admitted he has reached the limit of maximum strength to resist.
In the meantime, Chancellor Merkel said she was optimistic Guttenberg able to solve all the problems associated thesis. "I believe we have the opportunity to again work together again in the future," said Merkel, adding Guttenberg has a unique and unusual skills in dealing with others.
Sterling to 1.6415? Momentum Bullish Euro Translucent ... EURUSD: Opportunity Back to ... GBPUSD: Potential Shutter 1.6426GBPUSD: Stronger, Shutter 1.6191 Monexnews - Aussie dollar back negative reaction after the release of GDP, largely in accordance with expectations. While growth in the fourth quarter was only +0.7% per year that comes out to be +2.7% as expected. Prices initially moved up, reaching 1.0150 but quickly turned to who currently resides at 1.0125, the session low. The movement occurs because the decrease in from 1020 on Tuesday. The Australian dollar remained strong, but some correction is likely to occur.
In trading this morning the Australian dollar exchange rate seems potentially to have increased even though it would likely restrained by the condition that weakened Asian stock markets (02.03). The Aussie was trying to rebound after the release of economic growth data in Australia show a larger increase than expected.
Government report showed, down from U.S. construction spending is expected in January to its lowest level in five months. Diman decline was triggered by weak spending on private construction.
The Commerce Department said construction spending fell 0.7% to an annual rate of $ 791,820,000,000, which is the lowest value since August.
In testimony to the committee the government, BoE Governor Mervyn King reiterated his view that inflation will remain above the central bank's target of 2.0% this year.
On the other hand, the Deputy Governor Charles Bean said he is concerned that rising inflation could last longer than previous estimates.
Analysts said the comments from BoE policymakers to increase the central bank's position was in no hurry to raise interest rates as pressure on inflation which continues to grow.
U.S. business growth in February showed the fastest pace in two decades. Where the manufacturing sector led the recovery of the crisis in the U.S..
Institute for Supply Management-Chicago business barometer Inc. said as of February rose to 71.2 from 68.8 in January. The point is the highest level since July 1988. The index is expected to fall was moved above analyst expectations compiled by Bloomberg.
Manufacturers such as Deere & Co. to raise the estimated gains because the value of exports began to rise. Purchasing a house increased by 0.2%. U.S. President Barrack Obama's decision to cut taxes is expected to make public income to be rising.Automatically, consumer spending will be higher. The Federal Reserve also estimates, long-term inflation can still be controlled.
Market Calendar :
Trading Plan
USD-JPY | |||
BUY | 82.22 | SELL | 81.67 |
BUY BREAK | 82.89 | SELL BREAK | 81.49 |
TAKE PROFIT | 0.50 | STOP LOSS | 0.30 |
RESISTANCE | PIVOT | SUPPORT | |
82.20 | 81.98 | 81.67 | Trend : Up |
82.51 | 81.45 | ||
82.73 | 81.14 | ||
AUD-USD | |||
BUY | 1.0173 | SELL | 1.0128 |
BUY BREAK | 1.0201 | SELL BREAK | 0.9959 |
TAKE PROFIT | 0.0050 | STOP LOSS | 0.0030 |
RESISTANCE | PIVOT | SUPPORT | |
1.0177 | 1.0149 | 1.0100 | Trend : Down |
1.0226 | 1.0072 | ||
1.0254 | 1.0023 | ||
EUR-USD | |||
BUY | 1.3825 | SELL | 1.3780 |
BUY BREAK | 1.3861 | SELL BREAK | 1.3694 |
TAKE PROFIT | 0.0050 | STOP LOSS | 0.0030 |
RESISTANCE | PIVOT | SUPPORT | |
1.3836 | 1.3801 | 1.3745 | Trend : Up |
1.3892 | 1.3710 | ||
1.3927 | 1.3654 | ||
GBP-USD | |||
BUY | 1.6306 | SELL | 1.6261 |
BUY BREAK | 1.6364 | SELL BREAK | 1.6154 |
TAKE PROFIT | 0.0050 | STOP LOSS | 0.0030 |
RESISTANCE | PIVOT | SUPPORT | |
1.6316 | 1.6282 | 1.6233 | Trend : Up |
1.6365 | 1.6199 | ||
1.6399 | 1.6150 | ||
USD-CHF | |||
BUY | 0.9313 | SELL | 0.9267 |
BUY BREAK | 0.9449 | SELL BREAK | 0.9214 |
TAKE PROFIT | 0.0050 | STOP LOSS | 0.0030 |
RESISTANCE | PIVOT | SUPPORT | |
0.9310 | 0.9289 | 0.9262 | Trend : Up |
0.9337 | 0.9241 | ||
0.9358 | 0.9214 | ||
EUR-JPY | |||
BUY | 113.00 | SELL | 112.55 |
BUY BREAK | 113.55 | SELL BREAK | 111.93 |
TAKE PROFIT | 000.50 | STOP LOSS | 000.30 |
RESISTANCE | PIVOT | SUPPORT | |
113.44 | 113.10 | 112.45 | Trend : Up |
114.09 | 112.11 | ||
114.43 | 111.46 | ||
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