Senin, 14 Maret 2011

Analisa Forex Market 14 Maret 2011

Untuk indikator ekonomi global, pada pekan ini akan diisi beberapa rilis berita ekonomi penting, di antaranya pengumuman suku bunga di Jepang dan Amerika; keduanya diperkirakan bertahan tetap. Secara umum, rilis data ekonomi yang kiranya perlu diperhatikan investor minggu ini, adalah:
• Dari kawasan Amerika: berupa rilis data TIC Long-Term Purchases yaitu besarnya obligasi jangka panjang pemerintah AS yang dipegang orang asing pada Selasa malam; selanjutnya pengumuman suku bunga the Fed (Fed Fund Rate) yang hampir pasti bertahan pada level rndah 0.25% pada Rabu dini hari; data Producer Price Index (PPI) pada Rabu malam; berlanjut ke data inflasi CPI (Consumer Price Index) serta data tenaga kerja Unemployment Claims mingguan yang biasa menjadi perhatian pasar dirilis pada Kamis malam.
o Dari kawasan Inggris dan Eropa: berupa data German ZEW Economic Sentiment pada Selasa sore; dan data klaim pengangguran Inggris atau Claimant Count Change pada Rabu sore.
o Dari kawasan Jepang: berupa pengumuman suku bunga Jepang (BoJ) pada Selasa siang yang dipastikan akan bertahan rendah di level 0.1%.

Minggu lalu di pasar forex, nilai tukar mata uang dollar bergerak balik menguat terhadap kelompok major currencies lainnya setelah pemangkasan credit rating di Spanyol dan data deficit perdagangan dari China, dengan index dollar AS berakhir di level 76.560 sedikit menguat dari posisi minggu sebelumnya. Sementara itu, pekan yang lalu euro cenderung terkoreksi karena isyu belitan hutang pemerintah yang kembali mencuat, walaupun kemudian sempat rebound di akhir minggu, dengan euro berakhir di level 1.3936. Untuk minggu berjalan ini market range akan berada antara level resistance pada 1.4037 dan berikutnya di 1.4278, sedangkan level support di 1.3703 dan kemudian pada 1.3423.

Poundsterling minggu lalu umumnya melemah tipis terhadap dollar ke level 1.6070. Untuk minggu ini, level resistance terdekat pada 1.6343 dan kemudian 1.6460, sedang support berada pada 1.5977 dan kemudian 1.5745. Untuk USDJPY minggu lalu sempat menguat setelah berita tsunami di Jepang, tetapi kemudian berbalik lagi karena pilihan yen sebagai safe haven investment di tengah isyu bencana nuklir di Jepang. Pasar di minggu ini berada di antara resistance pada 83.90 dan 84.50, serta support level pada 80.22 dan 79.74. Sementara itu, Aussie dollar terpantau seminggu lewat melemah tipis dan berakhir di 1.0097. Range minggu ini tetap antara resistance 1.0230 dan 1.03 sementara support level di 0.9945 dan 0.9794.

Untuk pasar di stock index futures, pada minggu lalu indeks Nikkei mengalami tekanan yang makin besar setelah berita gempa dan tsunami, berakhir di bawah 10000 pada 9970. Minggu ini, dengan bencana nuklir yang menghadang, Nikkei berjangka akan tertekan dalam rentangan resistance terdekat yang turun pada 10223 dan level berikutnya di 10630. Adapun support pada level 9111 dan lalu 8738. Sementara itu, Indeks Hang Seng berjangka di Hong Kong minggu lalu juga ikut tertekan, ditutup di level 23215. Minggu ini akan tertekan dan berada dalam range level resistance di 23895 dan berikutnya 24945, sementara support-nya di 22427 selanjutnya 21520.

Bursa saham Wall Street minggu lalu juga tertekan dengan isyu harga minyak yang tinggi dan kekuatiran dampak gempa di Jepang yang akan menghambat perekonomian global. Perang saudara Libya serta laporan keuangan sejumlah emiten yang kurang menggembirakan ikut menekan bursa. Secara teknikal, Dow Jones Industrial minggu ini masih dalam situasi konsolidasi dengan rentang pasar antara level resistance di 12387 dan 12600, sementara support di level 11800 dan kemudian pada 11450. Index S&P 500 minggu lalu juga terkoreksi; di mana resistance sekarang di level 1345 dan 1440, sementara level support berada di 1252 dan 1218.

Untuk pasar emas, minggu lalu sempat melemah oleh kekuatiran pengurangan demand global, namun melonjak lagi setelah berita gempa bumi dahsyat di Jepang. Emas di LLG minggu lalu berakhir pada level $1416.20 per troy ounce. Untuk sepekan ke depan emas akan cenderung terangkat sebagai wujud investasi safe haven, dengan rentang berada antara resistance terdekat pada $1444 lalu level $1450. Sementara itu, support ada di $1393 serta support berikut $1307 per troy ounce. Di Indonesia, harganya agak surut ke level harga Rp400 ribu per gramnya, di tengah rupiah yang terapresiasi.

Banyak isyu panas dan di luar prediksi belakangan ini. Situasi geopolitik kawasan Arab dan Timur Tengah yang masih tetap panas, serta bencana dahsyat gempa bumi di Jepang yang berpengaruh kepada reactor nuklir negara dengan ekonomi terbesar ketiga di dunia ini.


For the global economic indicators, this week will be filled some important economic news releases, including announcement of interest rates in Japan and America, both expected to survive anyway. In general, economic data releases that investors would need to be considered this week are: • From the Americas: a TIC data release of the Long-Term Purchases namely the long-term U.S. government bonds held by foreigners on Tuesday night; subsequent announcement of the Fed's interest rate (Fed Funds rate) is almost certainly survive at the level of 0.25% on Wednesday rndah early days; data Producer Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday night; inflation data continues to CPI (Consumer Price Index) and employment data Unemployment Claims Typical weekly market attention was released on Thursday night. o From the UK and European regions: a data Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment on Tuesday afternoon, and the British jobless claims data or Claimant Count Change on Wednesday afternoon. o From the Japanese region: the form of interest rate announcement Japan (BoJ) on Tuesday afternoon that will certainly stay low at 0.1% level.
Last week in the forex market, currency exchange rate moves back dollar strengthened against other currencies after the major credit rating cuts in Spain and the data from the China trade deficit, with the U.S. dollar index ended at levels slightly rose from 76,560 the previous week's position. Meanwhile, last week the euro tend to be corrected because the issues are winding back government debt that stuck out, though then had a rebound at the end of the week, the euro ended at 1.3936 level. To run this week market will be range between resistance level at 1.4037 and the next at 1.4278, while the support level at 1.3703 and then at 1.3423.
Pounds Sterling last week generally thin weakened to as low as 1.6070 against the dollar. For this week, the nearest resistance level at 1.6343 and then 1.6460, while support is at 1.5977 and then 1.5745. For USDJPY weeks ago had escalated after the tsunami news in Japan, but then turned again by choice yen as a safe haven investment amid nuclear disaster issues in Japan. Markets this week were among the resistance at 83.90 and 84.50, and the support level at 80.22 and 79.74. Meanwhile, the Aussie dollar weakened monitored weekly through thin and ended at 1.0097. This week range between resistance remains 1.0230 and 1:03 while the support level at 0.9945 and 0.9794.
For the market in stock index futures, at last week's Nikkei index experiencing a growing pressure after the news of the earthquake and tsunami, ends below 10,000 in 9970. This week, faced with nuclear holocaust, the Nikkei futures will be depressed in the nearest resistance range is down at the next level at 10 223 and 10 630. The level of support in 9111 and then 8738. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng index futures in Hong Kong last week also depressed, closed at 23,215 level. This week will be depressed and be in the range of resistance level at 23,895 and 24,945 the next, while his support in the next 22 427 21 520.
Wall Street stock market last week was also depressed by high oil price issue and concerns the impact of the earthquake in Japan which will hamper a global economy. Libya's civil war and the financial statements of issuers that are less encouraging participate pressing the stock. Technically, the Dow Jones industrial is still in a situation this week with a range of market consolidation among the resistance level at 12,387 and 12,600, while the support at 11,800 level and then at 11,450. S & P 500 Index last week was also corrected; in which resistance is now at the level of 1345 and 1440, while the level of support was in 1252 and 1218.
For the gold market, last week was weakened by worries of global demand reduction, but surged again after the news of earthquake in Japan. Gold in LLG last week end at the level of $ 1,416.20 per troy ounce. For next week gold will likely rise as a form of safe haven investment, with the range being between closest resistance level at $ 1,444 and $ 1,450. Meanwhile, support is at $ 1,393 and below $ 1,307 support per troy ounce. In Indonesia, the price is somewhat receded to the level of the price of Rp 400 thousand per gram, in the middle of the rupiah has appreciated.
Many hot issues and predictions on the outside lately. Geopolitical situation of the Arab region and the Middle East is still hot, and the catastrophic earthquake in Japan which affected the country's nuclear reactors with the third largest economy in the world. 






 Market Data Calendar :
Date GMT+7 Currency
 Impact Detail Actual Forecast Previous Chart

Mon
Mar 14
14th-18th NZD
REINZ HPI m/m

-2.6%
14th-15th CNY
New Loans
604B
1040B
14th-15th CNY
M2 Money Supply y/y
17.0%
17.2%
9:30 GBP
BOE Gov King Speaks
14th-15th CNY
Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y

23.4%
11:30 JPY
Revised Industrial Production m/m

2.4%
12:00 JPY
Household Confidence

41.1
17:00 EUR
Industrial Production m/m

-0.1%
19:30 CAD
Capacity Utilization Rate

78.1%
 


Trading Plan




USD-JPY
BUY
82.49
SELL
82.04
BUY BREAK
83.19
SELL BREAK
81.54
TAKE PROFIT
0.50
STOP LOSS
0.30
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

82.86
82.25
81.22
             Trend : Down
83.89

80.61

84.50

79.58





AUD-USD
BUY
1.0116
SELL
1.0071
BUY BREAK
1.0179
SELL BREAK
1.0014
TAKE PROFIT
0.0050
STOP LOSS
0.0030
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

1.0211
1.0092
1.0021
Trend : Up
1.0282

0.9902

1.0401

0.9831





EUR-USD
BUY
1.3877
SELL
1.3832
BUY BREAK
1.3941
SELL BREAK
1.3748
TAKE PROFIT
0.0050
STOP LOSS
0.0030
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

1.3956
1.3853
1.3794
Trend : Up
1.4015

1.3691

1.4118

1.3632





GBP-USD
BUY
1.6075
SELL
1.6030
BUY BREAK
1.6199
SELL BREAK
1.5978
TAKE PROFIT
0.0050
STOP LOSS
0.0030
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

1.6123
1.6051
1.6013
Trend : Up
1.6161

1.5941

1.6233

1.5903





USD-CHF
BUY
0.9331
SELL
0.9286
BUY BREAK
0.9376
SELL BREAK
0.9225
TAKE PROFIT
0.0050
STOP LOSS
0.0030
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

0.9347
0.9307
0.9256
Trend : Down
0.9398

0.9216

0.9438

0.9165






EUR-JPY
BUY
114.14
SELL
113.69
BUY BREAK
114.89
SELL BREAK
112.89
TAKE PROFIT
000.50
STOP LOSS
000.30
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

114.89
113.90
112.80
Trend : Down
115.99

111.81

116.98

110.71

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