Ada ekspektasi ECB akan menegaskan kesiapan untuk memperketat kebijakan bila tekanan inflasi meningkat. Ekspektasi itu menguat karena data dan pernyataan beberapa pejabatnya. Data terakhir yang memperkuat ekspektasi itu adalah indeks PPI.
Eurostat mengumumkan indeks PPI di Januari naik 1,5%, kenaikan bulanan terbesar sejak Januari 1982 dan lebih besar dari prediksi 1,0%. Secara tahunan, indeks itu naik 6,1%, lebih tinggi dari prediksi 5,6% dan tertinggi sejak Oktober 2008. Menurut lembaga itu, kenaikan bulanan didorong oleh energi.
Kenaikan tajam tersebut mendorong ekspektasi ECB, melalui Presidennya Jean-Claude Trichet, akan mengeluarkan pernyataan yang hawkish pasca rapat regulernya hari ini. Bila Trichet menyampaikan pernyataan anti-inflasi, euro bisa melanjutkan lajunya.
Euro berpeluang mendekati $1,40 bila pernyataan Trichet memperkuat ekspektasi ECB akan menaikkan suku bunga lebih cepat dari the Fed. Namun, bila berhasil, euro semakin rawan dengan aksi ambil untung.
Karena pasar sudah memfaktorkan sinyal kuat dari ECB untuk memperketat kebijakan, ada kemungkinan euro koreksi setelah pertemuan ECB. Euro telah menguat hampir 3% sejak 14 Februari lalu karena pernyataan hawkish pejabat ECB. Oleh karena itu, euro terancam didera profit taking, terutama bila pasar kembali terfokus ke isu krisis utang dan perbankan Eropa.
Menjelang ECB, beberapa data Eropa terjadwal antara lain indeks PMI jasa, penjualan ritel dan PDB zona euro. Data yang memperlihatkan kenaikan signifikan dapat menambah laju euro.
Selain terhadap euro, dollar juga melemah terhadap rival utama lainnya. Greenback melemah karena ekspektasi the Fed akan tertinggal dalam memperketat kebijakan dari bank sentral lain seperti BOE dan RBA.
Dollar melemah meski data ekonomi AS bagus, seperti ADP Employment Change, yang menunjukkan lapangan kerja sektor swasta bertambah sebanyak 217.000 bulan lalu, lebih besar dari prediksi 185.000.
Faktor lain yang melemahkan dollar adalah konflik Timur Tengah. Karena konflik itu, banyak investor yang beralih ke safe haven alternatif, yaitu franc. Kenaikan harga minyak akhir-akhir ini mendorong ekspektasi inflasi, dan pasar masih belum yakin the Fed bisa memperketat kebijakannya dalam waktu dekat.
Euro Terjebak 'Range Trading' ...USDCHF: Indikasi Penguatan ...GBPUSD: Jenuh Jual, Bidik ...EURUSD: Peluang Sentuh 1.3717Sterling ke 1.6415 ? Monexnews - Dollar Australia telah bergerak turun 10-15 pips setelah data building approvals Australia turun tajam sebanyak 15.9%, dengan private sector house approval yang turun 2.4% MoM, sementara trade balance naik ke 1.87 miliar dari revisi naiknya 2.01 miliar. Harga saat ini akan ditemukan di 1.0150, sesi rendahnya.
Pada perdagangan hari ini tampak nilai tukar aussie terhadap dolar AS bergerak dengan kecenderungan melemah (03/03). Aussie bergerak turun setelah data ekonomi yang diumumkan pemerintah Australia berupa persetujuan pembangunan mengalami penurunan terbesar sejak tahun 2002 lalu.
Bank Standard Chartered Plc membukukan kenaikan laba bersih sebesar 28% di 2010. Kenaikan laba bersih ini karena turunnya pencadangan kredit bermasalah. Kawasan yang memberi kontribusi laba terbesar adalah Asia.
Laba bank yang bermarkas di London ini ditopang kenaikan pendapatan bersih menjadi US$ 4,33 miliar, dari US$ 3,38 miliar di tahun sebelumnya. Pendapatan bersih ini melewati angka perkiraan 18 analis yang disurvei Bloomberg, yaitu US$ 4,21 miliar.
Pendapatan dari bunga atau net interest margin naik 11% menjadi US$ 8,47 miliar. Sedangkan pendapatan non bunga atau fee based income juga naik 19% menjadi US$ 4,56 miliar.
Biaya operasional Stanchart membengkak setelah pembukaan cabang di China dan merekrut 7.000 orang sepanjang 2010 lalu. Namun, efisiensi bisa dilakukan bank karena dana pencadangan untuk kredit bermasalah turun 56%, menjadi US$ 883 juta.
Euro naik hingga mendekati empat-bulan tinggi versus dolar dan sepertinya akan terus memperpanjang Rallynya seiring dengan menngkatnya ekspektasi suku bunga di zona euro yang akan naik lebih awal di berlakukan dari pada Amerika Serikat.
Bank Sentral Eropa mengadakan pertemuan kebijakan pada hari Kamis ini. Investor berharap ECB mempertajam retorika anti-inflasi nya.
Dari Amerika dilaporkan, Gubernur Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke pada mengatakan program pemangkasan belanja oleh partai Republik tidak akan mengakibatkan pelambatan yang signifikan pada pertumbuhan ekonomi AS, namun dapat menghilangkan sekitar 200,000 pekerjaan. Bernanke mengatakan bahwa pemangkasan sebanyak 60 milyar dollar selama ini yang diajukan oleh partai Republik pada House of Representatives yang akan memangkas tingkat pertumbuhan sebanyak 0.2% pada tahun pertama dan 0.1% di tahun selanjutnya.
Dewan yang dipimpin oleh partai Republik telah menyetujui anggaran untuk tahun fiskal 2011. Termasuk pemangkasan belanja sebesar 61 milyar dollar, namun partai Demokrat yang mayoritas di Senat mengatakan pemangkasan dapat membahayakan pemulihan ekonomi.
Euro bangkit kembali terhadap Dollar sepanjang sesi Eropa ditengah-tengah ekspektasi meeting ECB hari Kamis ini hal ini memungkinkan akan meningkatkan peluang kenaikan suku bunga di kawasan Eropa.
Penguatan Euro didorong oleh arus jangka pendek yang didukung oleh harapan Presiden ECB yang akan bernada lebih agresif pada konferensi pers hari Kamis paska meeting akan keputusan suku bunga. Namun penguatan Euro terhadap mata uang Swiss Franc masih terbatas, merefleksikan kekhawatiran yang konsisten pada kerusuhan Timur Tengah.
Euro wander near its highest level in four months against the dollar due to expectations the ECB will be more vigilant about inflation. However, the European single currency was increasingly vulnerable to profit taking.
There were expectations the ECB will confirm readiness to tighten policy if inflationary pressures increase. Expectations were strengthened because of the data and statements from officials. Latest data reinforce expectations that the PPI index.
Eurostat announced the PPI index in January rose 1.5%, the biggest monthly increase since January 1982 and greater than the predicted 1.0%. Annually, the index rose 6.1%, higher than the predicted 5.6% and the highest since October 2008. According to the institute, the monthly increase is driven by energy.
The sharp increase pushed expectations for the ECB, through its President Jean-Claude Trichet, will be issued a hawkish statement after its regular meeting today. Trichet made the remarks when anti-inflation, the euro could continue the pace.
Euro likely to approach $ 1.40 when Trichet's statements reinforce expectations the ECB will raise interest rates faster than the Fed. However, if successful, the euro increasingly vulnerable to profit taking.
Because the market is factoring a strong signal from the ECB to tighten policy, there is the possibility of correction euro after ECB meeting. The euro has gained nearly 3% since 14 February, because the statement hawkish ECB official. Therefore, the euro threatened suffered profit taking, especially when the market re-focused to the issue of debt crisis and the European banking.
Towards the ECB, some European data scheduled among other services PMI index, retail sales and eurozone GDP. The data show a significant rise could add to the rate of the euro.
In addition to the euro, the dollar also weakened against other major rivals. The greenback weakened by expectations the Fed will tighten policy from behind in other central banks like the BOE and RBA.
Dollar weaker despite good U.S. economic data, such as ADP Employment Change, which showed private sector employment increased by 217,000 last month, larger than the predicted 185,000.
Another factor that weakens the dollar is the Middle East conflict. Because of the conflict, many investors are turning to alternative safe haven, the franc. The increase in oil prices recently pushed inflation expectations, and the market is still not convinced the Fed could tighten its policy in the near future.
Euro Stuck 'Range Trading' ... USDCHF: Indications Strengthening ... GBPUSD: Saturated Sell, Shutter ... EURUSD: Opportunity to 1.6415 1.3717Sterling Touch? Monexnews - Australian Dollar has been moving down 10-15 pips after the data Australian building approvals fell sharply by 15.9%, with the approval of private sector houses fell 2.4% MoM, while the trade balance rose to 1.87 billion from a revised rise 2:01 billion. Current prices will be found at 1.0150, the session low.
In today's trading seemed exchange rate against the U.S. dollar Australian dollar moves with a tendency to weaken (3.3). Aussie move down after economic data that the Australian government announced a development agreement the biggest decline since 2002.
Standard Chartered Bank Plc posted a net profit increase of 28% in 2010. The increase in net income was due to lower provision for bad debts. Regions that contribute the greatest profit is in Asia.
Profit at the London-headquartered bank is supported by the increase in net income to $ 4.33 billion, from U.S. $ 3.38 billion in the previous year. This net income exceeded the estimated 18 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, at U.S. $ 4.21 billion.
Income from interest or net interest margin increased 11% to U.S. $ 8.47 billion. While non-interest income or fee-based income also rose 19% to U.S. $ 4.56 billion.
Stanchart operational costs to swell after opening branches in China and hired 7,000 people during 2010. However, efficiency can be done because the bank's reserve fund for bad debts fell 56%, to U.S. $ 883 million.
Euro rises to near four-month high versus the dollar and likely will continue to extend Rallynya menngkatnya line with expectations in the euro zone interest rates are going up early on into force of the United States.
European Central Bank policy meeting this Thursday. Investors expect the ECB to sharpen its anti-inflation rhetoric.
Of America reported, Federal Reserve Governor Ben Bernanke said the program cuts in spending by the Republican party will not cause a significant slowdown in U.S. economic growth, but to eliminate about 200,000 jobs. Bernanke said that the cuts as much as 60 billion dollars has been raised by the Republican party in the House of Representatives that would cut the growth rate of 0.2% in the first year and 0.1% in the next year.
The Board is chaired by the Republican party has approved the budget for fiscal year 2011. Including trimming spending by 61 billion dollars, but the majority Democrats in the Senate said the cuts could jeopardize the economic recovery.
The euro bounced back against the dollar during the European session amid expectations the ECB meeting this Thursday it will increase the chances of possible interest rate hikes in Europe.
The strengthening Euro is driven by short-term flows, supported by expectations that the ECB president will be more aggressive tone at a news conference Thursday after meeting a decision will be of interest rates. But the strengthening euro against the Swiss franc currency is still limited, reflecting a consistent concern in the Middle East unrest.
Market Calendar
Trading Plan
USD-JPY | |||
BUY | 82.12 | SELL | 81.67 |
BUY BREAK | 82.44 | SELL BREAK | 81.49 |
TAKE PROFIT | 0.50 | STOP LOSS | 0.30 |
RESISTANCE | PIVOT | SUPPORT | |
82.15 | 81.88 | 81.62 | Trend :Down |
82.41 | 81.35 | ||
82.68 | 81.09 | ||
AUD-USD | |||
BUY | 1.0164 | SELL | 1.0119 |
BUY BREAK | 1.0204 | SELL BREAK | 1.0079 |
TAKE PROFIT | 0.0050 | STOP LOSS | 0.0030 |
RESISTANCE | PIVOT | SUPPORT | |
1.0201 | 1.0140 | 1.0104 | Trend : Down |
1.0237 | 1.0043 | ||
1.0298 | 1.0007 | ||
EUR-USD | |||
BUY | 1.3860 | SELL | 1.3825 |
BUY BREAK | 1.3898 | SELL BREAK | 1.3787 |
TAKE PROFIT | 0.0050 | STOP LOSS | 0.0030 |
RESISTANCE | PIVOT | SUPPORT | |
1.3926 | 1.3836 | 1.3780 | Trend :Down |
1.3982 | 1.3690 | ||
1.4072 | 1.3634 | ||
GBP-USD | |||
BUY | 1.6320 | SELL | 1.6275 |
BUY BREAK | 1.6349 | SELL BREAK | 1.6216 |
TAKE PROFIT | 0.0050 | STOP LOSS | 0.0030 |
RESISTANCE | PIVOT | SUPPORT | |
1.6374 | 1.6296 | 1.6246 | Trend :Down |
1.6424 | 1.6168 | ||
1.6502 | 1.6118 | ||
USD-CHF | |||
BUY | 0.9259 | SELL | 0.9214 |
BUY BREAK | 0.9321 | SELL BREAK | 0.9179 |
TAKE PROFIT | 0.0050 | STOP LOSS | 0.0030 |
RESISTANCE | PIVOT | SUPPORT | |
0.9283 | 0.9235 | 0.9183 | Trend : Up |
0.9335 | 0.9135 | ||
0.9383 | 0.9083 | ||
EUR-JPY | |||
BUY | 113.46 | SELL | 113.01 |
BUY BREAK | 113.99 | SELL BREAK | 112.54 |
TAKE PROFIT | 000.50 | STOP LOSS | 000.30 |
RESISTANCE | PIVOT | SUPPORT | |
113.89 | 113.22 | 112.85 | Trend :Down |
114.26 | 112.18 | ||
114.93 | 111.81 | ||
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