Minggu, 13 Februari 2011

Analisa 14 Februari 2011

MARKET OUTLOOK.

Kawasan Australia: Pengumuman Australian Bureau of Statistics (07/02) yang menyatakan bahwa nilai data aktual indikator Retail Sales m/m mengalami penurunan menjadi 0.2% memperlemah Aussie pada pair AUD/USD , karena sebelumnya diperkirakan akan naik menjadi 0.5% dari nilai periode sebelumnya yaitu sebesar 0.4%. Demikian juga pengumuman Unemployment Rate (10/02) sampai pada bulan Januari lalu masih berada pada angka 5.0%, meningkatkan kecenderungan menjual Aussie pada pair AUD/USD . Hal ini berpotensi memperlemah Aussie lebih lanjut lagi.

Kawasan Amerika: masih menunggu rilis data Unemployment Claims mingguan pada Kamis malam ini; kemudian Trade Balance atau Neraca Perdagangan dan Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment di Jumat malam.

Kawasan Inggris dan Eropa: masih menunggu data Manufacturing Production Inggris pada Kamis petang berlanjut dengan pengumuman suku bunga Inggris yang kemungkinan bertahan di level 0.5%. Yang pasti jug adalah investor global sedang menantikan hasil MPC meeting yang bisa mengindikasikan kemungkinan kenaikan suku bunga pada periode berikutnya. 


FOREX – EMAS. Hasil jajak pendapat terhadap sejumlah ekonom terkait akan diumumkannya perkembangan terkini sektor produksi Italia menunjukkan adanya perkiraan bahwa indikator Italian Industrial Production m/m dapat mengalami penurunan menjadi 0.4% dari nilai pada periode sebelumnya yaitu 1.1% .EUR/USD terpantau berada pada kisaran 1.3658. Sementara itu informasi terakhir mengenai indikator CPI m/m yang baru saja dirilis oleh Federal Statistical Office menunjukkan adanya penurunan performa pada sektor konsumsi di Swiss mengarahkan pada pasangan mata uang USD/CHF ini diperkirakan masih dapat melemah.

Harga emas spot mengalami penurunan sebesar 64 sen dan diperdagangkan pada posisi 1362.25 dolar per troy ons, Belum stabilnya kondisi akibat kerusuhan di Mesir tampaknya dapat meningkatkan kembali harga logam mulia ini. Harga emas berjangka untuk kontrak April mengalami penurunan sebesar 2.8 dolar dan ditransaksikan pada posisi 1362.8 dolar per troy ons. Harga emas masih berpotensi untuk mengalami sesi yang sideways. Emas berpotensi mengalami pergerakan pada kisaran 1320 – 1375 dolar per troy ons.

POUNDSTERLING. Rilis data terakhir indikator Trade Balance (09/02) yang dirilis oleh National Statistics menunjukkan sinyal adanya perkembangan terjadinya pelemahan Poundsterling, pair GBP/JPY berada pada kisaran 132.84. Demikian juga rilis data terakhir indikator Core Machinery Orders m/m yang dirilis oleh Cabinet Office (10/02), mengakibatkan Yen Jepang masih berpotensi menguat lebih lanjut terhadap Sterling.

Regions Australia: Australian Bureau of Statistics Announcement (02/07) stating that the actual data value indicators Retail Sales m / m decreased to 0.2% at the Aussie weakened the pair AUD / USD, as previously expected to increase to 0.5% from the previous period that is equal to 0.4%. Similarly, announcement Unemployment Rate (10/02) until last January still stands at 5.0%, increasing the likelihood of selling the Aussie at the pair AUD / USD. This potentially weakens the Aussie further.

America: still waiting for the release of Unemployment Claims data weekly on Thursday night, then Trade Balance or Balance of Trade and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment on Friday night.

Regions UK and Europe: still waiting for UK Manufacturing Production data on Thursday evening continues with the announcement of UK interest rates are likely to persist at levels of 0.5%. What is certain is jug global investors were waiting for the results of the MPC meeting that could indicate the possibility of higher interest rates in the next period.


FOREX - GOLD. The poll results on a number of economists will be the announcement of the latest developments related to the production sectors Italian indicates that the indicator estimates the Italian Industrial Production m / m can be decreased to 0.4% of the value in the previous period is 1.1% .EUR / USD was observed to be in the range 1.3658. Meanwhile, the latest information about the indicator CPI m / m has just been released by the Federal Statistical Office showed a decrease in performance on the consumption sector in Switzerland led to the currency pair USD / CHF is estimated to still be weakened.

Spot gold prices declined by 64 cents and traded on the position of 1362.25 dollars per troy ounce, yet stable condition due to the unrest in Egypt seems to increase again this precious metal prices. Prices of gold futures for April contract fell 2.8 dollars and traded on the position of 1362.8 dollars per troy ounce. The price of gold still has the potential to experience a sideways session. Gold has the potential to experience movement in the range 1320 - 1375 dollars per troy ounce.
Pounds. Released last data indicator Trade Balance (02.09), released by National Statistics show a growth signal of weakening Pound, GBP / JPY in the range of 132.84. Similarly, recent data releases Core indicators Machinery Orders m / m which was released by the Cabinet Office (02/10), Japanese Yen is still potentially result in further strengthened against the Sterling.



TRADING PLAN FOREX




USD-JPY
BUY
83.70
SELL
83.20
BUY BREAK
84.30
SELL BREAK
82.55
TAKE PROFIT
0.50
STOP LOSS
0.30
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

83.69
83.43
83.20
                        Trend : Up
83.92

82.94

84.14

82.71





AUD-USD
BUY
1.0035
SELL
0.9985
BUY BREAK
1.0145
SELL BREAK
0.9930
TAKE PROFIT
0.0050
STOP LOSS
0.0030
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

1.0056
1.0008
0.9972
Trend : Down
1.0092

0.9924

1.0140

0.9888





EUR-USD
BUY
1.3580
SELL
1.3535
BUY BREAK
1.3620
SELL BREAK
1.3490
TAKE PROFIT
0.0050
STOP LOSS
0.0030
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

1.3612
1.3555
1.3490
Trend :Down
1.3677

1.3433

1.3734

1.3368





GBP-USD
BUY
1.6050
SELL
1.6005
BUY BREAK
1.6140
SELL BREAK
1.5960
TAKE PROFIT
0.0050
STOP LOSS
0.0030
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

1.6087
1.6026
1.5939
Trend : Down
1.6174

1.5878

1.6235

1.5791





USD-CHF
BUY
0.9675
SELL
0.9635
BUY BREAK
0.9730
SELL BREAK
0.9585
TAKE PROFIT
0.0050
STOP LOSS
0.0030
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

0.9777
0.9728
0.9681
Trend :Up
0.9824

0.9632

0.9873

0.9585






EUR-JPY
BUY
113.35
SELL
112.85
BUY BREAK
114.00
SELL BREAK
112.35
TAKE PROFIT
000.50
STOP LOSS
000.30
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

113.40
113.09
112.74
Trend :Down
113.75

112.43

114.06

112.08

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