USD / JPY telah kembali ke level ingkat itu setelah kenaikan cepat mengikuti perubahan outlook Moody's Investors Service pada rating Aa2 Jepang menjadi negatif dari stabil.
"Penjualan yen akan sementara seiring rasio dari pemegang JGB luar negeri (pada total pemegang) adalah rendah," ujar Masafumi Yamamoto, kepala pakar FX di Barclays Bank di Tokyo.
Dia juga mengatakan kondisi fiskal Jepang memburuk akan menuju perlambatan di perekonomian global, yang bisa mendorong kekhawatiran resiko investor untuk membeli JPY.
Dia memberi tips USD/JPY berada di kisaran 82.50-83.50 untuk hari global. Pasangan mata uang ini berada di 83.07 setelah kenaikan awal ke 83.25 mengikuti langkah Moody's dari low sebelumnya di 82.84.
EUR akan menghadapi tantangan dari pemilu Irlandia hari Jum'at, dengan EUR/USD kemungkinan jatuh ke 1.3450 pekan ini dibanding dengan saat ini 1.3673, ujar Sumino Kamei, analis senior di Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.
Jika partai oposisi Fine Gael keluar sebagai pemenang, seperti polling baru-baru ini menunjukkan kemungkinan, ini akan menimbang EUR, ujar Kamei.
Pemimpin partai Enda Kenny mengatakan baru-baru ini senior pemegang obligasi dalam bank lain selain dari dinasionalisasi Anglo Irish Bank dan Irish Nationwide Building Society bisa diminta untuk terlibat dalam "berbagi beban," posisi ketakutan beberapa dapat menyebabkan penularan dari keterpurukan Irlandia tempat lain di Eropa.
Kekhawatiran muncul setelah partai Kanselir Jerman Angela Merkel menderita kekalahan di pemilihan regional di Hamburg hari Minggu, di tengah ketidakpuasan publik dengan uang pajak ke arah bailout fiskal di negara-negara Eropa lain.
"Tema minggu ini adalah pemilihan," ujar Kamei. "Pemilihan Jerman dan Irlandia sepertinya terlihat sebagai faktor negatif euro."
Euro menandakan level high baru 3 pekan di Asia, Senin (21/2) karena memuncaknya spekulasi tekanan inflasi yang mungkin mendesak the European Central Bank (ECB) untuk pengetatan sebelum mitranya mendorong investor membeli mata uang umum ini.
Terlambungnya oleh outlook yang meningkat setelah komentar hawkish Jum'at dari anggota dewan eksekusi ECB Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, euro naik di perdagangan pagi Tokyo ke Y113.98, tertinggi sejak 27 Januari.
Untuk sisa hari global, dealer mengatakan perhatian akan berada pada sederetan laporan purchasing managers index (PMI) Eropa, dengan tanda-tanda kekuatan membantu euro. Perancis merilis PMI untuk Februari pukul 15.00 WIB, diikuti Jerman pukul 15.30 WIB dan seluruh Uni Eropa (EU) pukul 16.00 WIB. Investor juga mengamati survei bulanan reguler sentimen bisnis di Jerman Ifo dirilis pukul 16.00 WIB.
"Data ini terfokus sekarang sebagai sesuatu yang dapat memperkuat ekspektasi ECB untuk melangkah ke arah sikap lebih hawkish, bahkan jika tidak benar-benar mengetatkan kebijakan, akan membantu euro," ujar Hideaki Inoue, delaer senior foreign exchange di Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking.
Pegolakan di Timur Tengah dan Afrika Utara, di mana pertumpahan darah di Libya di tengah protes anti-pemerintah menjadi perkembangan terbaru, tidak mungkin melukai mata uang umum tersebut, ujar dealer. Sementara investor kadang-kadang menyingkirkan euro sensitif terhadap risiko ketika kekhawatiran geopolitik seperti berkobar, fakta bahwa kekacauan di regional yang kaya dengan minyak dapat mengantar harga minyak mentah meninggi yang bisa benar-benar mendukung euro sekarang, ujar mereka.
"Jika harga minyak naik lebih lanjut, yang bisa menambah tekanan inflasi di Eropa dan persepsi perubahan selanjutnya tentang sikap ECB pada kenaikan suku bunga akhirnya, yang akan membantu euro," ujar Inoue Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking.
Pukul 11.50 WIB, euro berada di Y113.65 dari Y113.93 di New York Jum'at lalu, setelah mengalah dengan sedikit ambil untung mengikuti kenaikan sebelumnya di hari ini. Tetapi masih naik bias untuk mata uang umum ini, ujar dealer. Jika euro menembus Y114.00 di beberapa sesi mendatang, bisa target resistance sekitar Y114.50, ujar Inoue.
Terhadap dollar, mata uang umum ini berada di $1.3667 dari $1.3675.
Sementara itu, yuan China naik ke rekor high baru terhadap dollar di bawah sistem perdagangan saat ini, beberapa dealer menafsirkan sebagai sikap yang baik akan mengikuti meeting para menteri keuangan G-20 dan bankir sentral di Paris selama akhir pekan. Meskipun China memenuhi syarat persetujuan pada meeting itu untuk pengawasan yang lebih besar dari kebijakan nilai tukar, hasil G-20 memberi Beijing peluang lega tentang pengaturan indikator untuk mengukur ketidakseimbangan global.
Tingkat paritas sentral The People's Bank of China fixed the dollar-yuan di CNY6.5705, rekor low baru di bawah sistem saat ini, turun dari CNY6.5781 Jum'at.
Dollar sedikit berubah di Y83.12 dari Y83.14. Laporan The Commitments of Traders terakhir dari the Chicago Mercantile Exchange menunjukkan posisi non-komersial yang condong ke arah taruhan terhadap yen untk pertama kali sejak Juni. Ini suatu tanda sekarang banyak investor mengekspektasi dollar akan naik terhadap yen di beberapa pekan mendatang, dealer mengatakan mata uang ini bisa target Y85.00, kendati penjualan oleh eksportir Jepang mungkin menjaga kenaikan bertahap.
Euro berdiri teguh di awal perdagangan Asia pada hari Senin setelah komentar dari seorang pejabat Bank Sentral Eropa menghidupkan prospek bagi ECB untuk menaikkan suku bunga sebelum The Fed, sementara Australia tangguh dalam menghadapi langkah Cina terbaru untuk mengatasi inflasi.
Mata uang berama Eropa diperdagangkan terakhir di dekat 1,3700, setelah sebentar meningkat menjadi sekitar 1,3727, setelah Anggota Dewan Eksekutif ECB Lorenzo Bini Smaghi pada Jumat mengatakan ECP berdiri siap untuk menaikkan suku bunga yang diperlukan untuk menghadapi tekanan dan ekspektasi inflasi.
Dealer menjaga focus waspada pada perkembangan di Timur Tengah dan khususnya protes anti-pemerintah Libya bertambah kecepatannya.
Namun, kenaikan euro terlihat dibatasi oleh kekhawatiran yang sedang berlangsung tentang krisis utang Eropa.
Indeks dolar, yang melacak kinerja dolar terhadap sejumlah mata uang utama, datar di 77,608, berjuang setelah berulang kali mencoba untuk memecahkan rata-rata bergerak 100 hari minggu lalu gagal.
Terhadap yen, dolar berdiri di 83,13, tidak jauh dari terendah satu minggu di 83,00 Jumat lalu.
Langkah untuk menaklukkan inflasi yang tinggi, Beijing Jumat lalu menaikkan syarat cadangan bank yang diperlukan ke rekor 19,5%, yang berarti pemberi pinjaman negara harus mengunci sepotong deposito mereka di bank sentral daripada meminjamkannya.
Sejauh tahun ini, pasar telah menyambut langkah-langkah pengetatan Cina dengan rasa lega, daripada kepanikan bahwa upaya ini akan mengancam untuk menggelincirkan pertumbuhan ekonomi.
Perubahan dalam sikap pasar telah membantu mendukung Aussie, yang nasibnya terkait erat dengan kebijakan Beijing, mengingat bahwa Cina sekarang adalah pasar ekspor terbesarnya.
Aussie sedikit berubah pada 1,0142, masih mendekati tertinggi 1 minggu sekitar 1,0158 yang terjadi Jumat lalu.
Hasil dari pertemuan G20 berdampak kecil terhadap pasar. Menteri Keuangan ekonomi utama dunia mencapai kesepakatan agak kurang meyakinkan tentang cara untuk mengukur ketidakseimbangan dalam ekonomi global setelah Cina mencegah penggunaan nilai tukar dan cadangan mata uang sebagai indikator.
USD / JPY has returned to levels ingkat after rapid increase following the change in outlook for Moody's Investors Service in Japan AA2 rating to negative from stable. "Sales of the yen will be temporary as the ratio of JGB holders abroad (in total shareholder) is low," said Masafumi Yamamoto, head of FX at Barclays Bank experts in Tokyo. He also said Japan's deteriorating fiscal condition will lead to slowdown in the global economy, which could encourage risk concerns of investors to buy JPY. He gave tips on USD / JPY was in the range of 82.50-83.50 for the global day. These currency pairs are in 83.07 after earlier rising to 83.25 following the Moody's move from the previous low at 82.84.
EUR will face the challenge of Ireland's general election Friday, with EUR / USD likely to fall to 1.3450 this week compared with 1.3673 today, said Sumino Kamei, a senior analyst at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ. If the opposition Fine Gael party emerged as the winner, such as the recent polls indicate the likelihood, this will weigh EUR, Kamei said. Party leader Enda Kenny said the recent senior bondholders in banks other than nationalized the Anglo Irish Bank and Irish Nationwide Building Society may be asked to engage in "sharing the burden," a position of fear some can cause infections of the Irish slump elsewhere in Europe. Concerns emerged after German Chancellor Angela Merkel's party suffers defeat in regional elections in Hamburg on Sunday, amid public discontent with the tax money toward fiscal bailout in other European countries. "The theme this week is the election," Kamei said. "The choice of Germany and Ireland seem to be seen as a negative factor of the euro."
Euro marks a new high level of 3 weeks in Asia on Monday (21 / 2) because of mounting speculation that inflationary pressures may be urging the European Central Bank (ECB) for tightening prior to its partners to encourage investors to buy the common currency this. Terlambungnya by an increased outlook Friday after hawkish comments from ECB board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi execution, the euro rose in morning trade in Tokyo to Y113.98, the highest since 27 January. For the rest of the global day, dealers said attention would be on a series of consolidated purchasing managers index (PMI) Europe, with signs of strength help the euro. France released the PMI for February at 15.00 pm, followed by Germany at 15.30 pm and the entire European Union (EU) at 16.00 pm. Investors are also watching a regular monthly survey on the German Ifo business sentiment released at 16.00 pm. "This data is focused now as something that can reinforce expectations the ECB to move towards more hawkish stance, even if not actually tighten policy, will help the euro," said Hideaki Inoue, a senior delaer foreign exchange at Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking. Pegolakan in the Middle East and North Africa, where bloodshed in Libya amid anti-government protests became the latest developments, not the common currency may hurt it, dealers said. While investors sometimes get rid of the euro is sensitive to geopolitical concerns such as risk when burned, the fact that the chaos in the region rich with oil to bring crude oil prices rising that could actually support the euro right now, they said. "If oil prices rise further, which could add to inflationary pressures in Europe and the subsequent change in perceptions about the attitude of the ECB on interest rates eventually rise, which will help the euro," said Inoue of Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking. At 11:50 GMT, the euro was at Y113.65 from Y113.93 in New York last Friday, after succumbing to some profit taking following the previous rise in today. But still ride bias to this common currency, dealers said. If the euro through Y114.00 in the next few sessions, could target resistance around Y114.50, Inoue said. Against the dollar, the common currency this was at $ 1.3667 from $ 1.3675. Meanwhile, the Chinese yuan rose to a record new high against the dollar under the current trading system, some dealers interpreted as a good attitude will follow the meeting of the G-20 finance ministers and central bankers in Paris over the weekend. Although China is eligible for approval at the meeting that greater oversight of exchange rate policy, the G-20 gave Beijing an opportunity of relief on setting up indicators to measure the global imbalances. The central parity level People's Bank of China fixed the dollar-yuan in CNY6.5705, a record new low under the current system, down from CNY6.5781 Friday. Dollar little changed at Y83.12 from Y83.14. The Commitments of Traders report last of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange showed a non-commercial positions are leaning towards betting against the yen Untk the first time since June. It's a sign many investors now expect the dollar will rise against the yen in the coming weeks, dealers said the currency could be the target Y85.00, despite selling by Japanese exporters may keep rising gradually.
The euro stood firm in early Asian trading on Monday after comments from European Central Bank official turn on the prospects for the ECB to raise interest rates before the Fed, while Australia resilient in the face of China's latest steps to tackle inflation. Berama European currency last traded at close to 1.3700, after briefly rising to around 1.3727, after ECB Executive Board Member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi on Friday said the ECP stand ready to raise interest rates needed to deal with pressures and inflation expectations. Dealers keep vigilant focus on developments in the Middle East and especially anti-government protests Libyan increased speed. However, the increase in the euro seen limited by ongoing concerns about the debt crisis of Europe. Dollar index, which tracks the performance of the dollar against several major currencies, flat at 77.608, to struggle after repeatedly trying to solve the moving average 100 days of last week failed. Against the yen, the dollar stood at 83.13, not far from the lowest one week at 83.00 last Friday. Step to conquer the high inflation, Beijing on Friday to raise bank reserve requirements necessary to record 19.5%, which means the lender deposits the state should lock them in a piece of the central bank rather than lend it. So far this year, the market has welcomed China's tightening measures with a sense of relief, rather than panic that this effort will threaten to derail economic growth. The change in attitude has helped support the Aussie market, whose fate is closely linked with Beijing's policies, given that China is now the biggest export market. Aussie little changed at 1.0142, still near the highest 1 week around 1.0158 which occurred last Friday. Results from the G20 meeting have little impact on the market. Minister of Finance of the world's major economies to agree somewhat less convincing on how to measure the imbalances in the global economy after China to prevent the use of exchange rates and currency reserves as an indicator.
EUR will face the challenge of Ireland's general election Friday, with EUR / USD likely to fall to 1.3450 this week compared with 1.3673 today, said Sumino Kamei, a senior analyst at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ. If the opposition Fine Gael party emerged as the winner, such as the recent polls indicate the likelihood, this will weigh EUR, Kamei said. Party leader Enda Kenny said the recent senior bondholders in banks other than nationalized the Anglo Irish Bank and Irish Nationwide Building Society may be asked to engage in "sharing the burden," a position of fear some can cause infections of the Irish slump elsewhere in Europe. Concerns emerged after German Chancellor Angela Merkel's party suffers defeat in regional elections in Hamburg on Sunday, amid public discontent with the tax money toward fiscal bailout in other European countries. "The theme this week is the election," Kamei said. "The choice of Germany and Ireland seem to be seen as a negative factor of the euro."
Euro marks a new high level of 3 weeks in Asia on Monday (21 / 2) because of mounting speculation that inflationary pressures may be urging the European Central Bank (ECB) for tightening prior to its partners to encourage investors to buy the common currency this. Terlambungnya by an increased outlook Friday after hawkish comments from ECB board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi execution, the euro rose in morning trade in Tokyo to Y113.98, the highest since 27 January. For the rest of the global day, dealers said attention would be on a series of consolidated purchasing managers index (PMI) Europe, with signs of strength help the euro. France released the PMI for February at 15.00 pm, followed by Germany at 15.30 pm and the entire European Union (EU) at 16.00 pm. Investors are also watching a regular monthly survey on the German Ifo business sentiment released at 16.00 pm. "This data is focused now as something that can reinforce expectations the ECB to move towards more hawkish stance, even if not actually tighten policy, will help the euro," said Hideaki Inoue, a senior delaer foreign exchange at Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking. Pegolakan in the Middle East and North Africa, where bloodshed in Libya amid anti-government protests became the latest developments, not the common currency may hurt it, dealers said. While investors sometimes get rid of the euro is sensitive to geopolitical concerns such as risk when burned, the fact that the chaos in the region rich with oil to bring crude oil prices rising that could actually support the euro right now, they said. "If oil prices rise further, which could add to inflationary pressures in Europe and the subsequent change in perceptions about the attitude of the ECB on interest rates eventually rise, which will help the euro," said Inoue of Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking. At 11:50 GMT, the euro was at Y113.65 from Y113.93 in New York last Friday, after succumbing to some profit taking following the previous rise in today. But still ride bias to this common currency, dealers said. If the euro through Y114.00 in the next few sessions, could target resistance around Y114.50, Inoue said. Against the dollar, the common currency this was at $ 1.3667 from $ 1.3675. Meanwhile, the Chinese yuan rose to a record new high against the dollar under the current trading system, some dealers interpreted as a good attitude will follow the meeting of the G-20 finance ministers and central bankers in Paris over the weekend. Although China is eligible for approval at the meeting that greater oversight of exchange rate policy, the G-20 gave Beijing an opportunity of relief on setting up indicators to measure the global imbalances. The central parity level People's Bank of China fixed the dollar-yuan in CNY6.5705, a record new low under the current system, down from CNY6.5781 Friday. Dollar little changed at Y83.12 from Y83.14. The Commitments of Traders report last of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange showed a non-commercial positions are leaning towards betting against the yen Untk the first time since June. It's a sign many investors now expect the dollar will rise against the yen in the coming weeks, dealers said the currency could be the target Y85.00, despite selling by Japanese exporters may keep rising gradually.
The euro stood firm in early Asian trading on Monday after comments from European Central Bank official turn on the prospects for the ECB to raise interest rates before the Fed, while Australia resilient in the face of China's latest steps to tackle inflation. Berama European currency last traded at close to 1.3700, after briefly rising to around 1.3727, after ECB Executive Board Member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi on Friday said the ECP stand ready to raise interest rates needed to deal with pressures and inflation expectations. Dealers keep vigilant focus on developments in the Middle East and especially anti-government protests Libyan increased speed. However, the increase in the euro seen limited by ongoing concerns about the debt crisis of Europe. Dollar index, which tracks the performance of the dollar against several major currencies, flat at 77.608, to struggle after repeatedly trying to solve the moving average 100 days of last week failed. Against the yen, the dollar stood at 83.13, not far from the lowest one week at 83.00 last Friday. Step to conquer the high inflation, Beijing on Friday to raise bank reserve requirements necessary to record 19.5%, which means the lender deposits the state should lock them in a piece of the central bank rather than lend it. So far this year, the market has welcomed China's tightening measures with a sense of relief, rather than panic that this effort will threaten to derail economic growth. The change in attitude has helped support the Aussie market, whose fate is closely linked with Beijing's policies, given that China is now the biggest export market. Aussie little changed at 1.0142, still near the highest 1 week around 1.0158 which occurred last Friday. Results from the G20 meeting have little impact on the market. Minister of Finance of the world's major economies to agree somewhat less convincing on how to measure the imbalances in the global economy after China to prevent the use of exchange rates and currency reserves as an indicator.
Date |  GMT+7 | Currency | Impact | Detail | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Chart |
Wed | 0:00 | GBP | MPC Member Posen Speaks |  | |||||
1:00 | USD | FOMC Member Kocherlakota Speaks |  | ||||||
5:00 | AUD | RBA Gov Stevens Speaks | | ||||||
6:50 | JPY | Trade Balance | | 0.70T | 0.71T |  | |||
6:50 | JPY | CSPI y/y | | -1.3% | -1.3% | | |||
7:30 | AUD | Construction Work Done q/q | | 1.5% | -2.1% | | |||
7:30 | AUD | Wage Price Index q/q | | 0.9% | 1.1% | | |||
13:30 | EUR | French CPI m/m | | -0.1% | 0.5% | | |||
15:15 | CHF | PPI m/m | | 0.1% | 0.3% | | |||
16:30 | GBP | MPC Meeting Minutes |  | 3-0-6 | 2-0-7 | ||||
16:30 | GBP | BBA Mortgage Approvals | | 29.0K | 28.7K | | |||
17:00 | EUR | Industrial New Orders m/m | | -0.8% | 2.1% | | |||
20:30 | CAD | Corporate Profits q/q | | -0.3% | | ||||
22:00 | USD | Existing Home Sales | | 5.30M | 5.28M | |
Trading Plan
USD-JPY | |||
BUY | 83.19 | SELL | 82.74 |
BUY BREAK | 83.61 | SELL BREAK | 82.39 |
TAKE PROFIT | 0.50 | STOP LOSS | 0.30 |
RESISTANCE | PIVOT | SUPPORT | |
83.34 | 82.95 | 82.48 | Trend : Down |
83.81 | 82.09 | ||
84.20 | 81.62 | ||
AUD-USD | |||
BUY | 1.0046 | SELL | 1.0001 |
BUY BREAK | 1.0160 | SELL BREAK | 0.9963 |
TAKE PROFIT | 0.0050 | STOP LOSS | 0.0030 |
RESISTANCE | PIVOT | SUPPORT | |
1.0079 | 1.0022 | 0.9971 | Trend : Down |
1.0130 | 0.9914 | ||
1.0187 | 0.9863 | ||
EUR-USD | |||
BUY | 1.3665 | SELL | 1.3620 |
BUY BREAK | 1.3718 | SELL BREAK | 1.3524 |
TAKE PROFIT | 0.0050 | STOP LOSS | 0.0030 |
RESISTANCE | PIVOT | SUPPORT | |
1.3754 | 1.3641 | 1.3579 | Trend : Down |
1.3816 | 1.3466 | ||
1.3929 | 1.3404 | ||
GBP-USD | |||
BUY | 1.6189 | SELL | 1.6134 |
BUY BREAK | 1.6260 | SELL BREAK | 1.6064 |
TAKE PROFIT | 0.0050 | STOP LOSS | 0.0030 |
RESISTANCE | PIVOT | SUPPORT | |
1.6211 | 1.6155 | 1.6115 | Trend : Down |
1.6251 | 1.6059 | ||
1.6307 | 1.6019 | ||
USD-CHF | |||
BUY | 0.9441 | SELL | 0.9396 |
BUY BREAK | 0.9518 | SELL BREAK | 0.9314 |
TAKE PROFIT | 0.0050 | STOP LOSS | 0.0030 |
RESISTANCE | PIVOT | SUPPORT | |
0.9467 | 0.9417 | 0.9328 | Trend : Down |
0.9556 | 0.9278 | ||
0.9606 | 0.9189 | ||
EUR-JPY | |||
BUY | 113.54 | SELL | 113.17 |
BUY BREAK | 114.21 | SELL BREAK | 112.74 |
TAKE PROFIT | 000.50 | STOP LOSS | 000.30 |
RESISTANCE | PIVOT | SUPPORT | |
114.17 | 113.20 | 112.50 | Trend : Down |
114.87 | 111.53 | ||
115.84 | 110.83 | ||
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