Pound rally sebesar 0.35% terhadap dollar dengan menyentuh level high di $1.6219, sementara euro merosot dengan tingkat yang sama terhadap sterling ke GBP0.8381. Sterling pun melonjak sebesar 0.5% terhadap yen ke Y135.24.
Anggota Komite Kebijakan Moneter eksternal (Monetary Policy Committee) Andrew Sentance Hawkish mengatakan telah mengisyaratkan saat makan malam Kamis bahwa laporan untuk meeting Februari akan "lebih menarik dari biasa," menurut Citigroup.
Walaupun USD/JPY gagal menembus level 84.00 Rabu dan kecenderungan melemah sejak itu.
Morgan Stanley mengatakan pasangan mata uang ini bisa naik ke 86.00 menjelang akhir 1Q 2011 dan 93.00 menjelang akhir 2011, mengutip ekspektasi naik pada perbedaan yield obligasi AS-Jepang dilatar belakangi pemulihan ekonomi AS lanjutan.
"Kami kemudian akan mengekspektasi investor Jepang mulai mencai yield lebih tinggi menyeluruh dan membiarkan lagi mata uang membuka 'unhedged' seiring yen mulai melemah," ujarnya.
Bagaimanapun, tambahnya, USD/JPY mungkin masih batas kisaran jangka pendek dan kemungkinan tidak rally karena sejumlah alasan: 1) pasokan uang AS tumbuh "sangat cepat;" 2) suku bunga AS "sangat rendah," 3) secara nyata, JPY "tidak begitu kuat."
Sekuritas mengatakan lingkungan resiko global dan sentimen USD akan menjadi penggerak JPY terbesar pada beberapa pekan mendatang.
Pasangan mata uang ini berada di 83.25.
Euro sedikit berubah terhadap dollar dan yen, Jum'at (18/2) di Asia seiring investor berdiri di disela-sela menjelang rilis kunci indikator ekonomi Inggris di hari global.
Pelaku pasar akan memperhatikan data retail sales Inggris untuk Januari pukul 16.30 WIB untuk memperoleh ide terbaik ketika the Bank of England (BOE) akan menaikkan kunci suku bunga--salah sati topik terpanas di pasar mata uang baru-baru ini.
"Pelaku pasar dalam suasana 'wait-and-see' menjelang rilis data, membuat arus pasar tak bernyawa di Asia," ujar Hideki Amikura, deputi manajer umum di Nomura Trust and Banking.
Dow Jones mempolling ekonom memprkirakan data akan naik 0.5% pada penjualan dari bulan lalu, ketika turun sebesar 0.8%.
Jika hasil itu melebihi perkiraan, pound akan naik sebagai akibat ekspektasi meninggi untuk pengetatan BOE dalam waktu dekat. Euro, pada gilirannya, harus sesuai mengikuti karena seperti memandang akan memacu selera resiko investor, ujar dealer.
Perkiraan data saat ini akan sulit, ujar kepala pakar mata uang Barclays Capital Masafumi Yamamoto, artinya mata uang Eropa dan Inggris keduanya menguat dan resiko menurun.
"Kami mengekspektasi hasil lebih kuat dari ekspektasi karena angka Desember tertimbang turun oleh cuaca buruk," ujarnya. "Tetapi mengingat pajak pertambahan nilai mendaki dan optimisme konsumen merosot di Januari, ketidakpastian selama hasil tersebut tinggi."
Pukul 11.50 WIB, euro berada di $1.3610 dari $1.3609 dan Y113.34 dari Y113.38 di New York Kamis kemarin.
Dollar AS berada di Y83.26 dari Y83.32 disebabkan penjualan oleh eksportir Jepang, ujar dealer.
Investor akan fokus pada data AS yang dirilis pekan depan, seperti Case-Shiller home price index Selasa untuk mengukur pengendalian kebijakan moneter the Federal Reserve ke depan, ujar Amikura.
"Outlook dollar tergantung tentang bagaimana data berubah dan bagaimana Treasury yields AS bereaksi," ujar Amikura. Treasury yields meninggi akan menarik investasi dari luar negeri dan membuat mata uang AS makin kuat.
Dia mengatakan item lain untuk mengamati kekacauan politik yang berlangsung di Timur Tengah. Jika kondisi memburuk, obligasi AS akan membeli pada tingkat alasan yang berkualitas, menuju Treasury yields lebih rendah dan dollar melemah.
Osamu Takashima, kepala pakar mata uang di Citibank Jepang yang memiliki pandangan dollar bullish jangka panjang, juga mencatat dollar AS bisa menderita jatuh cepat, mungkin turun di bawah Y83.00 dalam waktu dekat.
Sementara itu, keinginan investor pada meeting akhir pekan ini dari Grup 20 negara di Paris "rendah," ujar Amikura, "karena kami tidak mengekspektasi kelompok itu akan menghasilkan sesuatu yang rinci." walaupun komentar apapun tentang yuan China "layak diperhatikan."
Indeks Dollar, yang mengukur mata uangnya terhadap sejumlah mata uang utama, berada di sekitar 77.950 dari 77.970.
EUR/USD jatuh karena spekulan jangka pendek membuang posisi belinya setelah pasangan mata uang ini gagal naik di atas 1.3630 kendati upayanya memicu stop-loss order beli sekitar 1.3640 di tengah relatif kurangnya petunjuk perdagangan, ujar seorang dealer senior di bank besar Jepang.
Dia mengatakan perdagangan sempit seiring investor menunggu perkembangan dari para menteri keuangan dan gubernur bank sentral pada meeting the G-20 nanti di hari global.
"Eropa akan menjadi medan tempur utama," ujarnya. Dia mengatakan pasangan mata uang ini bisa jatuh ke 1.3500 di hari global nanti.
Pasangan mata uang tersebut berada di 1.3595 dari 1.3629 sebelumnya.
USD/JPY bisa turun dengan cepat ke 82.80 seiring investor terus melepas posisi beli setelah Treasury yields AS jatuh semalam di New York, ujar kepala pakar FX Citibank Jepang Osamu Takashima.
Treasury yield AS 10 tahun acuan jatuh 4.7 bps ke 3.576% semalam. Dia menambahkan, eksportir Jepang terus menjual, menimbang pada pasangan mata uang ini.
"Itu yang terbaik untuk mendapat kembali pasangan mata uang tersebut akan jatuh dengan cepat di bawah 83.00," ujarnya.
Untuk jangka menengah, walaupun, dia mengatakan yields obligasi AS bisa bergerak lebh tinggi seiring indikator ekonomi AS sedang meningkat, sementara naiknya harga komoditi meningkatkan tekanan inflasi.
Karena itu, dia menanggapi USD/JPY bisa naik kembali ke arah 84.50 di jangka menengah.
Perdagangan USD/JPY berada di 83.32.
Sterling rallied sharply above $ 1.62 against the dollar sparked talk that the vice governor of the Bank of England (BOE) Charles Bean voted for rate hike in February.
The pound rallied by 0.35% against the dollar to touch the high level at $ 1.6219, while the euro slumped to the same level against sterling to GBP0.8381. Sterling also jumped by 0.5% against the yen to Y135.24.
External Monetary Policy Committee Member (Monetary Policy Committee), Andrew Sentance said the hawkish has hinted at dinner Thursday that the report for February meeting will be "more interesting than usual," according to Citigroup.
Although USD / JPY failed to penetrate the 84.00 level on Wednesday and a tendency to weaken since then.
Morgan Stanley said this currency pair could rise to 86.00 by the end of 1Q 2011 and 93.00 by the end of 2011, citing increased expectations on the difference in the US-Japanese bond yield was based on continued U.S. economic recovery.
"We then would expect Japanese investors began mencai higher overall yield and allowed more open currency 'unhedged' as the yen began to weaken," he said.
However, he added, USD / JPY may still limit the range of short term and unlikely to rally for a number of reasons: 1) the U.S. money supply to grow "very quickly;" 2) U.S. interest rates "very low," 3) are real, JPY "not so strong. "
Securities said the global risk environment and sentiment JPY USD will be the biggest mover in the coming weeks.
These currency pairs are in 83.25.
The euro was little changed against the dollar and the yen on Friday (18 / 2) in Asia as investors stood on the sidelines ahead of the release of key UK economic indicators in the global day.
Market participants will pay attention to British retail sales data for January at 16.30 pm to get the best idea when the Bank of England (BOE) will raise the key interest rate - one of sati hottest topics in the currency markets recently.
"Market participants in an atmosphere of 'wait-and-see' ahead of the release of data, making the current lifeless market in Asia," said Hideki Amikura, deputy general manager at Nomura Trust and Banking.
Dow Jones mempolling economist memprkirakan data will rise 0.5% in sales from last month, when it fell by 0.8%.
If the result was more than forecast, the pound will rise as a result of rising expectations for tightening the BOE in the near future. The euro, in turn, should conform to follow because such views would spur investor risk appetite, dealers said.
Estimated current data will be difficult, said the head of Barclays Capital currency strategist Masafumi Yamamoto, currency means Europe and the UK both strengthened and reduced risk.
"We expect the stronger-than-expected results due in December figures weighted down by bad weather," he said. "But given the climbing value added tax and consumer optimism fell in January, the uncertainty over the outcome is high."
At 11:50 GMT, the euro was at $ 1.3610 from $ 1.3609 and Y113.34 from Y113.38 in New York Thursday.
U.S. Dollar at Y83.26 from Y83.32 due to sales by Japanese exporters, dealers said.
Investors will focus on U.S. data is released next week, like the Case-Shiller home price index on Tuesday to measure the control of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy in the future, said Amikura.
"Outlook of dollars depending on how the data changed and how the U.S. Treasury yields react," said Amikura. Rising Treasury yields will attract investment from abroad and make U.S. currency is getting stronger.
He said other items to observe the political turmoil that took place in the Middle East. If conditions worsen, the U.S. will buy the bonds at a quality level of reason, toward the lower Treasury yields and the dollar weakened.
Osamu Takashima, chief currency strategist at Citibank Japan which has a long-term bullish dollar view, also noted the U.S. dollar could suffer from falling faster, probably fell below Y83.00 in the near future.
Meanwhile, the desire of investors at this weekend's meeting of Group of 20 countries in Paris "low," said Amikura, "because we do not expect the group will produce something that detailed." although any comment about the Chinese yuan "noteworthy."
The Dollar Index, which measures the currency against a number of major currencies, was at around 77,950 from 77,970.
EUR / USD fell as short-term speculators bought it after removing the position of this currency pair failed to rise above 1.3630 despite efforts to trigger stop-loss buy orders around 1.3640 in the middle of the relative lack of trade lead, said a senior dealer at a big Japanese bank.
He said the narrow trading as investors waited for developments from the finance ministers and central bank governors of the G-20 meeting later in the global day.
"Europe will become the main battlefield," he said. He said that this currency pair can fall to 1.3500 in the global day later.
The currency pair is located at 1.3595 from 1.3629 previously.
USD / JPY could fall rapidly to 82.80 as investors hold off buying position after U.S. Treasury yields fell overnight in New York, said the head of Citibank Japan's FX experts Osamu Takashima.
U.S. Treasury 10-year benchmark yield fell 4.7 bps to 3576% overnight. He added that Japanese exporters continued to sell, weighing on the currency pair.
"It's best to get back the currency pair will fall quickly under 83.00," he said.
For the medium term, though, he said the U.S. bond yields could move higher lebh as U.S. economic indicators are rising, while rising commodity prices increase inflation pressures.
Because of that, he responded to the USD / JPY could rise back towards 84.50 in the medium term.
Trade USD / JPY was at 83.32.
Market Calendar :
Trading Plan
USD-JPY | |||
BUY | 83.50 | SELL | 83.01 |
BUY BREAK | 83.95 | SELL BREAK | 82.38 |
TAKE PROFIT | 0.50 | STOP LOSS | 0.30 |
RESISTANCE | PIVOT | SUPPORT | |
83.40 | 83.22 | 82.92 | Trend : Down |
83.70 | 82.74 | ||
83.88 | 82.44 | ||
AUD-USD | |||
BUY | 1.0155 | SELL | 1.0119 |
BUY BREAK | 1.0220 | SELL BREAK | 1.0039 |
TAKE PROFIT | 0.0050 | STOP LOSS | 0.0030 |
RESISTANCE | PIVOT | SUPPORT | |
1.0168 | 1.0130 | 1.0104 | Trend : Up |
1.0194 | 1.0066 | ||
1.0232 | 1.0040 | ||
EUR-USD | |||
BUY | 1.3672 | SELL | 1.3627 |
BUY BREAK | 1.3734 | SELL BREAK | 1.3543 |
TAKE PROFIT | 0.0050 | STOP LOSS | 0.0030 |
RESISTANCE | PIVOT | SUPPORT | |
1.3750 | 1.3648 | 1.3581 | Trend : Up |
1.3817 | 1.3479 | ||
1.3919 | 1.3412 | ||
GBP-USD | |||
BUY | 1.6242 | SELL | 1.6197 |
BUY BREAK | 1.6266 | SELL BREAK | 1.6101 |
TAKE PROFIT | 0.0050 | STOP LOSS | 0.0030 |
RESISTANCE | PIVOT | SUPPORT | |
1.6288 | 1.6218 | 1.6174 | Trend : Up |
1.6322 | 1.6104 | ||
1.6402 | 1.6060 | ||
USD-CHF | |||
BUY | 0.9501 | SELL | 0.9456 |
BUY BREAK | 0.9632 | SELL BREAK | 0.9324 |
TAKE PROFIT | 0.0050 | STOP LOSS | 0.0030 |
RESISTANCE | PIVOT | SUPPORT | |
0.9517 | 0.9477 | 0.9417 | Trend : Down |
0.9577 | 0.9377 | ||
0.9617 | 0.9317 | ||
EUR-JPY | |||
BUY | 113.87 | SELL | 113.22 |
BUY BREAK | 114.19 | SELL BREAK | 112.97 |
TAKE PROFIT | 000.50 | STOP LOSS | 000.30 |
RESISTANCE | PIVOT | SUPPORT | |
114.11 | 113.53 | 113.14 | Trend : Up |
114.50 | 112.56 | ||
115.08 | 112.17 | ||
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