Kamis, 17 Februari 2011

Analisa 17 Februari 2011

EUR/USD naik di 1.3558, menyentuh level high di 1.3571 dari perdagangan sore Tokyo di level low 1.3521 dipicu pembelian dari broker rumah Amerika, ujar seorang senior fund manger di dana investasi besar di Tokyo.

Dia menambahkan kenaikan awal terpicu stop-loss order beli di atas 1.3540. Dia memberi tips resistance di 1.3600 selama hari global.

Seorang trader bank Jepang awalnya mengatakan bahwa SWF Timur Tengah berada di belakang perdagangan itu, totalnya $1 miliar.

EUR/USD naik dengan tajam dipicu penjualan USD untuk EUR oleh dana kekayaan negara Timur Tengah (SWF), ujar seorang trader bank Jepang.

Trader mengatakan bahwa penjualan total sekitar $1 miliar, sementara alasn tidak diketahui. EUR/USD naik dengan tajam ke 1.3571 dari 1.3528 sebelum pergerakan itu dan sekarang berada di 1.3543.

Bankir lain menegaskan terdapat stop-loss beli di 1.3550 oleh pelaku pasar Timur Tengah.

Euro menguat di perdagangan Asia, Rabu (16/2) setelah WestLB Jerman mencapai kesepakatan restrukturisasi sebelum batas waktu krusial.

Berdasarkan rencana yang diajukan oleh pemerintah Jerman terhadap Komisi Eropa, bank yang dikendalikan negara akan menyusutkan neraca dan mengurangi aset tertimbang resiko selanjutnya menjelang tahun 2015, kurang lebih sepertiga lebih dari bawah rencana restrukturisasi sebelumnya. Hal ini juga mengusulkan pemisahan empat unit bisnis untuk mempersiapkan penjualan atau kemitraan nanti.

Berita muncul seiring leganya pada pasar, menghapus potensi negatif jika grup itu menghadapi pembongkaran.

"Kekhawatiran atas WestLB melukai euro sebelumnya, jadi kesepakatan ini menajamkan orang-orang betah dan mendorong investor menjual mata uang itu karena kegelisahan pada bank untuk membeli kembali," ujar Yuzo Sakai, manajer foreign exchange di brokers Tokyo Forex & Ueda Harlow.

Berita tersebut mendorong euro ke $1.3535 di awal perdagangan sore, dibanding dengan $1.3485 di New York lalu, menurut angka dari EBS. Pukul 11.50 WIB, mata uang umum itu berada di $1.3531.

Sakai mengatakan euro bisa menyentuh $1.3560 meskipun kenaikan di atas level itu tidak mungkin karena persoalan bertahan lama atas utang negara Eropa yang tetap faktor negatif.

Sementara itu, trader di Singapura mengatakan ada pembicaraan di pasar bahwa bank sentral Asia membeli euro terhadap dollar untuk memakai lagi dollar yang mereka beli sebagai intervensi menjaga mata uangnya dari penguatan.

Dollar masih menawarkan baik terhadap yen setelah menyentuh level high 2 bulan di New York. Itu berada di Y83.67, sedikit turun dari Y83.78 di perdagangan AS lalu.

Jalur dollar/yen, euro berada di Y113.27 dari Y113.00 semalam.

Sementara tidak mungkin lama menjadi tempat favorit untuk menaruh uang, analis mengatakan pembelian oleh eksportir Jepang artinya yen akan menurun yang mungkin terukur. Mereka tunjukkan bahwa surplus besar current account Jepang, seperti permintaan akan terus menekan level harga dollar-yen dan euro-yen.

Lihatlah ke depan ke trading day, fokus pada laporan inflasi kuartalan the Bank of England (BOE), akan dirilis pukul 17.30 WIB. Sterling menguat di $1.6158 dari $1.6124 di New York lalu. Investor mengatakan isyarat bank sentral mungkin menaikkan suku bunga--kendati perekonomian lemah--akan mendukung pound lebih lanjut. Gubernur BOE Mervyn King mengatakan hari Selasa bahwa inflasi Inggris dengan jelas suatu "tantangan besar."

Juga pada kalender untuk hari ini yaitu harga produsen AS, dirilis pukul 2030 WIB. dengan kekuatan dollar saat ini digerakkan oleh perbedaan yield, menandakan inflasi naik mungkin akan membantu melambungkan dollar AS, ujar trader.

Indeks Dollar, yang mengukur mata uangnya terhadap sejumlah mata uang utama, berada di 78.389 dari 78.602 di New York.

USD/JPY bisa naik ke 84.00 jika indikator ekonomi AS akan dirilis di hari global nanti menandakan pemulihan ekonomi AS kuat, ujar Sumino Kamei, analis senior di Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.

Data housing starts AS Januari akan dirlis pukul 20.30 WIB dan data industrial production January dirilis pukul 21.15 WIB.
Investor "tampak sedang mencari isyarat pembelian dollar," tambahnya, "Dolar diperdagangkan tegas (semalam) kendati data retail sales AS lebih lemah dari ekspektasi."

USD/JPY sedikit berubah hingga kini di perdagangan Asia di 83.74 dari 83.78 di New York Selasa kemarin.

AUD/USD mendekam di bawah paritas untuk saat ini, trader mencari arah baru yang mungkin datang hari ini nanti dengan perilisan laporan inflasi Bank of England (BOE) kemudian data inflasi AS Januari hari Kamis, ujar Greg Gibbs, kepala pakar FX di RBS.

Di tengah naik turunnya gelombang kekhawatiran tentang tekanan harga secara global, dia mengatakan data dapat memicu langkah ke arah kenaikan suku bunga, terutama di Inggris.

"Ada beberapa resiko inflasi dapat mendatangkan 'radar' di AS." Tetapi dia menambahkan, itu adalah gambaran variatif untuk AUD/USD sekarang ini.
Komentar Dovish oleh RBA baru-baru ini variarif dengan kenaikan harga komoditi untuk menjaga batasan kisaran pasangan mata uang ini.

Perdagangan AUD/USD berada di 0.9990.

EUR / USD rose at 1.3558, touched the high level in Tokyo afternoon trade from 1.3571 at 1.3521 low level triggered the purchase of U.S. brokerage house, said a senior fund manger at a large investment fund in Tokyo.
He added the initial increase triggered stop-loss buy orders above 1.3540. He gave tips on resistance at 1.3600 during the global day.
A Japanese bank traders initially said that SWF Middle East are behind the trade that, in total $ 1 billion.

 
EUR / USD rose sharply to EUR USD sales triggered by the Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds (SWF), said a Japanese bank trader.
Traders said that total sales of about $ 1 billion, while alasn unknown. EUR / USD rose sharply to 1.3571 from 1.3528 before the movement was and is now at 1.3543.
Other bankers have asserted buy stop-loss at 1.3550 by the Middle East market.

 
The euro rose in Asian trade on Wednesday (16 / 2) after Germany's WestLB restructuring to reach an agreement before a crucial deadline.
Under the plan proposed by the German government against the European Commission, the state-controlled banks will shrink the balance sheet and reduce further the risk weighted assets by 2015, about one-third more than under previous restructuring plan. It also proposed the separation of four business units to prepare for later sale or partnership.
News comes as a relief to the market, remove the negative potential if the group was facing demolition.
"Concerns over WestLB hurt the euro before, so this deal sharpens the people at ease and encourage investors to sell the currency because of anxiety on banks to buy back," said Yuzo Sakai, manager of foreign exchange at Tokyo Forex & Ueda brokers Harlow.
The news pushed the euro to $ 1.3535 in early afternoon trade, compared with $ 1.3485 in New York and, according to figures from the EBS. At 11:50 pm, the common currency was at $ 1.3531.
Sakai said the euro could touch $ 1.3560 despite the increase above that level is not possible because of long-lasting problems for the debt of European countries which remained a negative factor.
Meanwhile, traders in Singapore said there is talk in the market that Asian central bank buying euros against the dollar to wear again they are buying dollars as an intervention to keep its currency from strengthening.
Dollar still offer both against the yen after touching a high level of 2 months in New York. It was at Y83.67, down slightly from Y83.78 in U.S. trade last.
Track the dollar / yen, the euro was at Y113.27 from Y113.00 overnight.
While it is impossible long been a favorite place to put money, analysts said the purchase by the yen means that Japanese exporters will be reduced which may be measured. They show that the large current account surpluses of Japan, as demand will continue to push the price of dollar-yen level and euro-yen.
Look forward to the trading day, the focus on quarterly inflation report the Bank of England (BOE), to be released at 17:30 pm. Sterling strengthened at $ 1.6158 from $ 1.6124 in New York last. Investors said the central bank signals may raise interest rates - despite the weak economy - will support the pound further. BOE Governor Mervyn King said on Tuesday that UK inflation is clearly a "huge challenge."
Also on the calendar for today is the U.S. producer prices, released at 2030 GMT. with the current dollar strength is driven by differences in yield, signaling rising inflation may be helpful to toss the U.S. dollar, traders said.
The Dollar Index, which measures the currency against a number of major currencies, was at 78,389 from 78,602 in New York.

USD / JPY could rise to 84.00 if the U.S. economic indicators to be released in the global day later indicating strong U.S. economic recovery, said Sumino Kamei, a senior analyst at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.
January U.S. housing starts data will dirlis at 20:30 pm and January industrial production data released at 21:15 pm.
Investors "are looking for cues seem purchases of dollars," he added, "The dollar traded firm (overnight), even though U.S. retail sales data is weaker than expectations."
USD / JPY was little changed up to now in Asian trade at 83.74 from 83.78 in New York Tuesday.

 
AUD / USD languishing below parity for the moment, traders looking for new directions that may come later today with the release of inflation reports the Bank of England (BOE) U.S. inflation data later in January on Thursday, said Greg Gibbs, head of FX experts at RBS.
Amid a wave of concern about the rise and fall of global price pressures, he said the data could trigger a move toward higher interest rates, especially in England.
"There is some risk inflation could bring 'radar' in the U.S.." But he added, it is a varied picture for AUD / USD now.
Dovish comments by the RBA recently variarif with commodity price increases to maintain the range limits of this currency pair.
Trade AUD / USD is at 0.9990. 






USD-JPY
BUY
83.95
SELL
83.45
BUY BREAK
84.50
SELL BREAK
83.15
TAKE PROFIT
0.50
STOP LOSS
0.30
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

83.85
83.68
83.39
                        Trend : Down
84.14

83.22

84.31

82.93





AUD-USD
BUY
1.0045
SELL
1.0000
BUY BREAK
1.0130
SELL BREAK
0.9942
TAKE PROFIT
0.0050
STOP LOSS
0.0030
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

1.0072
1.0020
0.9985
Trend : Up
1.0107

0.9933

1.0159

0.9898





EUR-USD
BUY
1.3576
SELL
1.3521
BUY BREAK
1.3630
SELL BREAK
1.3460
TAKE PROFIT
0.0050
STOP LOSS
0.0030
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

1.3620
1.3542
1.3496
Trend : Up
1.3666

1.3418

1.3744

1.3372





GBP-USD
BUY
1.6111
SELL
1.6066
BUY BREAK
1.6195
SELL BREAK
1.5987
TAKE PROFIT
0.0050
STOP LOSS
0.0030
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

1.6188
1.6087
1.5992
Trend : Down
1.6283

1.5891

1.6384

1.5796





USD-CHF
BUY
0.9650
SELL
0.9625
BUY BREAK
0.9742
SELL BREAK
0.9524
TAKE PROFIT
0.0050
STOP LOSS
0.0030
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

0.9699
0.9626
0.9517
Trend : Down
0.9808

0.9444

0.9881

0.9335






EUR-JPY
BUY
113.60
SELL
113.14
BUY BREAK
114.00
SELL BREAK
112.
TAKE PROFIT
000.50
STOP LOSS
000.30
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

113.73
113.35
113.06
Trend : Up
114.02

112.68

114.40

112.39

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