Minggu, 27 Februari 2011

Analisa Forex Market 28 Februari 2011


Kawasan Australia: Indikator Construction Work Done q/q yang dirilis Rabu (23/02) mengalami kenaikan menjadi 0.8% dimana sebelumnya diperkirakan akan naik menjadi 1.5% dari nilai sebelumnya yaitu -1.5%. Hal ini member sinyalemen positif ekonomi Australia. Mata uang Aussie pada perdagangan pair AUD/USD sempat menguat pada Rabu (23/02). Namun hari ini (24/02) Dollar menekan Aussie jelang rilis Data Produksi AS, diperkirakan hal ini berpotensi menyebabkan Dollar Australia melemah lebih lanjut lagi

Kawasan Amerika: Indikator Existing Home Sales yang dirilis oleh National Association of Realtors, Rabu (23/02) menunjukkan adanya peningkatan performa pada sektor perumahan di Amerika Serikat.
Indikator Existing Home Sales dilaporkan meningkat menjadi 5.36M dimana sebelumnya diperkirakan akan turun menjadi 5.27M dari nilai sebelumnya yaitu 5.28M. Hal ini sempat membawa dampak menguatnya Dollar AS pada pasangan mata uang USD/CHF, namun ternyata pada perdagangan Kamis (24/02) dolar mengalami penurunan hingga mencapai rekor terendahnya terhadap swissie. Diperkirakan pergerakan nilai tukar USD/CHF akan masih cenderung mengalami penurunan. Hal ini diakibatkan adanya sentiment kekhawatiran bahwa defisit anggaran di Negara ini akan makin membengkak.

Kawasan Inggris dan Eropa: Meningkatnya Indikator MPC Meeting Minutes seperti yang dilaporkan Rabu (23/02) menjadi 3-0-6 dimana sebelumnya diperkirakan akan menjadi 3-0-6 dari nilai sebelumnya yaitu 2-0-7, direspon positif oleh investor pada perdagangan forex, terlihat dengan menguatnya Sterling pada pasangan mata uang GBP/USD, dan ini diperkirakan masih dapat menguat lebih lanjut. Sementara data aktual indikator BBA Mortgage Approvals dilaporkan mengalami peningkatan menjadi 28.9K, hal ini berpengaruh kepada penguatan Poundsterling kepada perdagangan pair GBP/JPY.
Sementara itu dari kawasan Eropa lainnya, data aktual indikator German Final GDP q/q dilaporkan tetap menjadi 0.4% dimana pada periode sebelumnya bernilai 0.4% . Hal ini menunjukkan sinyal adanya perkembangan yang tidak terlalu menggembirakan pada ekonomi Jerman . Diperkirakan Euro masih berpotensi melemah lebih lanjut.

FOREX. Dalam sehari terjadi berbaliknya arah penguatan mata uang. Dollar AS pada pasangan mata uang USD/CHF menguat pada Rabu (23/02), namun berbalik melemah pada hari ini karena adanya sentiment kekhawatiran bahwa defisit anggaran di Negara ini akan makin membengkak, dan kelihatannya akan terus melemah. Demikian juga Mata uang Aussie pada perdagangan pair AUD/USD sempat menguat pada Rabu (23/02). Namun hari ini (24/02) Dollar berbalik menekan Aussie jelang rilis Data Produksi AS, diperkirakan akan terus melemah lebih lanjut lagi. Sementara itu dengan konstannya data aktual indikator German Final GDP q/q, Euro sempat melemah Rabu (23/02), namun hari ini Euro berada di kisaran tertinggi dalam tiga minggu terhadap dolar AS di tengah spekulasi bahwa ECB akan meningkatkan suku bunga acuan sebelum Fed guna mencegah berkembangnya inflasi tinggi di kawasan Eropa.

POUNDSTERLING. Pada perdagangan pair GBP/USD sesi Eropa sore hari ini (24-02) mata uang Poundsterling terpantau kembali melemah terhadap Dollar AS dan berada pada kisaran 1.6172. Hal ini terjadi seiring dirilisnya laporan Indikator CBI Realized Sales mengalami penurunan menjadi 6 dimana sebelumnya diperkirakan hanya akan turun menjadi 30 dari nilai sebelumnya yaitu 37. Sterling pada pasangan mata uang GBP/USD ini diperkirakan masih dapat melemah lebih lanjut


Australian Region: Indicators of Construction Work Done q / q which was released Wednesday (02/23) increased to 0.8% where previously forecast to rise to 1.5% from the previous value of -1.5%. This positive signal member of the Australian economy. Aussie currency pairs trade on AUD / USD had gained on Wednesday (02/23). But today (02.24) ahead of the release of the Aussie dollar hit U.S. production data, estimated this could potentially lead to further weakening Australian dollar again
Regions America: Indicators of Existing Home Sales released by the National Association of Realtors on Wednesday (23/02) showed an increase in performance in the housing sector in the United States. Indicator Existing Home Sales were reported to increase to 5.36M where previously expected to drop to 5.27M from the previous value of 5.28M. It is time to bring the impact of the strengthening U.S. dollar on the currency pair USD / CHF, but in fact the trade on Thursday (02/24), the dollar fell to a record low against the swissie. Estimated exchange rate movements USD / CHF will still tend to decrease. This sentiment caused by concerns that the budget deficit in this country will increasingly swollen.
UK and European Regions: Increased Indicators MPC Meeting Minutes as reported on Wednesday (02/23) to 3-0-6 which was thought to be 3-0-6 from the previous value of 2-0-7, responded positively by investors on forex trading, seen by the strengthening of Sterling on the currency pair GBP / USD, and this is predicted to strengthen further. While the actual data reported indicators BBA Mortgage Approvals increased to 28.9K, this contributes to the strengthening pound sterling to trade GBP / JPY. Meanwhile, from other European regions, the actual data indicator Germany Final GDP q / q 0.4% reported to still be where in the previous period is worth 0.4%. This shows the signal of which is not too encouraging developments on the German economy. It is estimated that the Euro still has the potential to weaken further.

 
FOREX. In a reversal of direction occurs daily strengthening currency. U.S. Dollar on the currency pair USD / CHF rose on Wednesday (02/23), but turned lower today because of the sentiment concern that the budget deficit in this country will become more swollen, and apparently will continue to weaken. Likewise, the Aussie currency pairs trade on AUD / USD had gained on Wednesday (23/02). But today (02/24) Aussie Dollar turn suppress the release of data ahead of U.S. production, is expected to continue to weaken further. Meanwhile, with the constancy of the actual data indicator Germany Final GDP q / q, the euro had weakened on Wednesday (23/02), but today The euro was in the range of the highest in three weeks against the U.S. dollar amid speculation that the ECB will increase interest rates before the Fed in order to prevent the development of high inflation in the European region.
Pounds. In trading GBP / USD European session this afternoon (24-02) was observed to return Pounds currency weakened against the U.S. dollar and in the range of 1.6172. This happens as the release of the report Indicators of CBI Realized Sales decreased to 6 in which the previously estimated to only be down to 30 from the previous value of 37. Sterling on the currency pair GBP / USD is expected to weaken still further


Mrket Calendar :
Date Time & Date OptionsGMT+7 Currency Impact   Detail Actual Forecast Previous Chart
Mon
Feb 28
Up Next 4:45 NZD
Trade Balance
-25M
-250M
6:15 JPY
Manufacturing PMI
51.4
6:30 AUD
MI Inflation Gauge m/m
0.4%
6:50 JPY
Prelim Industrial Production m/m
4.1%
3.3%
6:50 JPY
Retail Sales y/y
-1.5%
-2.1%
7:30 AUD
Private Sector Credit m/m
0.3%
0.2%
7:30 AUD
Company Operating Profits q/q
0.8%
-1.5%
9:00 NZD
NBNZ Business Confidence
29.5
12:00 JPY
Housing Starts y/y
5.6%
7.5%
14:00 EUR
German Import Prices m/m
1.1%
2.3%
17:00 EUR
CPI y/y
2.4%
2.4%
17:00 EUR
Core CPI y/y
1.2%
1.1%
20:30 CAD
GDP m/m
0.3%
0.4%
20:30 CAD
Current Account
-9.4B
-17.5B
20:30 USD
Core PCE Price Index m/m
0.1%
0.0%
20:30 USD
Personal Spending m/m
0.5%
0.7%
20:30 USD
FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
20:30 USD
Personal Income m/m
0.4%
0.4%
21:45 USD
Chicago PMI
67.9
68.8
22:00 USD
Pending Home Sales m/m






























































































































































































Trading Plan





USD-JPY
BUY
82.04
SELL
81.59
BUY BREAK
82.63
SELL BREAK
81.04
TAKE PROFIT
0.50
STOP LOSS
0.30
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

81.95
81.80
81.55
             Trend : Down
82.20

81.40

82.35

81.15





AUD-USD
BUY
1.0183
SELL
1.0124
BUY BREAK
1.0210
SELL BREAK
1.0074
TAKE PROFIT
0.0050
STOP LOSS
0.0030
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

1.0205
1.0145
1.0114
Trend : Down
1.0236

1.0054

1.0296

1.0053





EUR-USD
BUY
1.3792
SELL
1.3747
BUY BREAK
1.3844
SELL BREAK
1.3687
TAKE PROFIT
0.0050
STOP LOSS
0.0030
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

1.3811
1.3768
1.3698
Trend : Up
1.3881

1.3655

1.3924

1.3585





GBP-USD
BUY
1.6120
SELL
1.6075
BUY BREAK
1.6189
SELL BREAK
1.6030
TAKE PROFIT
0.0050
STOP LOSS
0.0030
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

1.6163
1.6096
1.6033
Trend : Down
1.6226

1.5966

1.6293

1.5903





USD-CHF
BUY
0.9304
SELL
0.9259
BUY BREAK
0.9377
SELL BREAK
0.9214
TAKE PROFIT
0.0050
STOP LOSS
0.0030
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

0.9321
0.9280
0.9242
Trend : Down
0.9359

0.9201

0.9400

0.9163






EUR-JPY
BUY
112.90
SELL
112.45
BUY BREAK
113.28
SELL BREAK
111.74
TAKE PROFIT
000.50
STOP LOSS
000.30
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

113.07
112.66
111.88
Trend : Up
113.85

111.47

114.26

110.69

 

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