USD/JPY terakhir berada di posisi 81.65. Perdagangan mungkin akan relatif sepi dengan liburnya beberapa bursa saham Asia dalam memperingati hari libur tahun baru Imlek, ujarnya.
Meskipun Ketua Fed Bernanke denagn nada sedikit lebih optimis pada kecepatan pemulihan AS, termasuk sektor ketenagakerjaan, itu terlalu dini untuk menebak apa jalan Fed yang akan diambil setelah putaran kedua pelonggaran kuantitatif berakhir pada bulan Juni, kata Hoshino.
Sebaliknya, ia memandang "kepercayaan pada pelonggaran moneter, mengingat dia tidak berbicara tentang dampak negatif itu", seperti kenaikan harga komoditas pada likuiditas seperti membuat lebih sulit untuk memprediksi apakah program ini akan berakhir pada bulan Juni.
EUR/USD diperkirakan akan berkisar pada level 1.3580-1.3680 sedangkan EUR/JPY diperkirakan akan berkisar pada level 111.00-112.00.
Euro jatuh terhadap safe-haven dollar dan yen di Asia, Kamis (3/2) karena kekhawatiran atas kerusuhan politik di Mesir, dan dealer mengatakan mata uang tunggal itu bisa jatuh lagi dipicu hasil meeting dewan kebijakan European Central Bank (ECB).
Bank sentral itu akan mengadakan meeting dewan kebijakan reguler nanti di hari global, bersama konferensi pers oleh Presiden ECB Jean-Claude Trichet yang dijadwalkan pukul 20.30 WIB.
Investor akan memperhatikan terhadap tekanan komentar Trichet untuk mengukur jika bank tersebut bisa menjadi lebih hawkish, seiring indikator ekonomi kuat saat ini telah mendorong beberapa faktor kenaikan suku bunga ECB dalam waktu dekat, ujar analis.
Indikasi apapun bank tidak akan mengambil tindakan seperti ekspektasi yang dapat mendorong euro turun, ujar mereka.
Beberapa analis di Tokyo mengatakan kesempatan ECB lebih hawkish adalah tipis, kendati ekspektasi pasar tinggi.
"Kami tidak yakin ECB akan memperkuat pandangannya hari ini, dan jika akan melakukannya, itu akan di Maret, ketika revisi outlook ekonomi ECB jatuh tempo," ujar Masafumi Yamamoto, kepala pakar mata uang Jepang di Barclays Capital.
Soichiro Mori, Kepala Riset Pasar di FXOnline Japan, mengatakan dia juga berpikir meeting ECB mungkin akan menjadi isyarat untuk mengantar euro melemah.
Selain ECB, investor juga akan fokus pada data services PMI zona-eropa untuk Januari akan dirilis pukul 16.00 WIB, ujar Mori. Jika hasilnya lebih baik dari ekspekatsi 55.2, euro mungkin melihat kenaikan cepat, ujarnya.
Pukul 11.50 WIB, euro berada di $1.3794 dari $1.3810 di New York Rabu kemarin, dan di Y112.63 dari Y112.64. Dealer di Tokyo mengatakan kekacauan politik berlangsung di Timur Tengah telah mendorong investor menjual euro.
Dollar AS berada di Y81.64 dari Y81.55, dan Indeks Dollar, yang mengukur mata uangnya terhadap sejumlah mata uang utama, berada di 77.162 dari 77.086.
Investor mengatakan arus yang sempit karena liburan Tahun Baru Imlek di Asia. Sisi puncak unit ini tertimbang oleh eksportir Jepang di Y81.80, sementara pelemahan juga terdukung di Y81.30 oleh importir Jepang dan perusahaan asuransi jiwa, tambah mereka.
Pelaku pasar juga memperhatikan pidato Ketua Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke di the National Press Club dari pukul 00.30 WIB, ujar Satoshi Tate, dealer senior di Mizuho Corporate Bank.
"Ini adalah kesempatan besar untuk menilai seberapa kuat bank tetap berkomitmen terhadap program quantitative easing," ujarnya.
Tate mencatat, jika tekanan Bernanke masih tidak berubah dari pandangan bank tersebut saat ini, kemudian "hal itu akan memberikan kami suatu tanda untuk mengantar dollar melemah terhadap yen."
Minyak jatuh pada hari Kamis seiring dolar yang lebih kuat menarik minyak mentah dari tertinggi 28-bulan yang tersentuh pada kekhawatiran kerusuhan di Mesir bisa menyebar dan mengganggu pengiriman minyak dari Timur Tengah.
Euro turun secara luas terhadap dolar AS setelah Presiden Bank Sentral Eropa Jean-Claude Trichet melontarkan komentar dingin pada ekspektasi pasar bahwa suku bunga zona Eropa akan naik dalam waktu dekat.
Minyak mentah Brent turun 73 sen menjadi $101,61 pada 01:21WIB dinihari. Pada awal sesi naik menjadi $ 103,37, level tertinggi sejak 26 September 2008.
Minyak mentah AS untuk bulan Maret, turun 60 sen menjadi $90,26 per barel, menurun dari sesi tertinggi $92,05.
Dukungan lebih lanjut untuk dolar datang dari data ekonomi AS yang positif pada pekerjaan, layanan dan produktivitas non-pertanian.
Badan Energi Internasional mengatakan kepada Kongres AS pada hari Kamis bahwa permintaan kuat diatas perkiraan dari reboundnya ekonomi serta kerusuhan di negara-negara Arab membantu mendorong harga Brent diatas $100 per barel.
Brent, patokan untuk penjualan minyak mentah di Eropa, Timur Tengah, Afrika dan Asia, Kamis sebelumnya mencapai $103 per barel karena kerusuhan di Mesir meningkat, dengan pendukung anti dan pro pemerintah terjebak dalam bentrokan kekerasan.
The movement of the USD / JPY is likely to lack clear direction and potentially will revolve around the 81.40-81.90 levels ahead of the release of non-farm payrolls report U.S. today, said Akira Hoshino, senior dealer of Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.
USD / JPY was last in 81.65 position. Trade may be relatively quiet with her off some Asian stock markets in commemorating the Chinese New Year holiday, he said.
Although Fed Chairman Bernanke denagn slightly more optimistic tone on the speed of the U.S. recovery, including the employment sector, it is too early to guess what path the Fed will be taken after the second round ended quantitative easing in June, said Hoshino.
Instead, he looked "reliance on monetary easing, given that he was not talking about the negative impact," such as commodity price increases in liquidity, such as making it more difficult to predict whether this program will expire in June.
EUR / USD is expected to revolve around the 1.3580-1.3680 level while EUR / JPY is expected to revolve around the 111.00-112.00 level.
The euro fell against the safe-haven dollar and yen in Asia on Thursday (3 / 2) due to concerns over political unrest in Egypt, and dealers say the single currency could fall again triggered the policy board meeting European Central Bank (ECB).
The central bank's policy board will hold its regular meeting later in the global day, along with a press conference by ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet is scheduled at 20:30 pm.
Investors will pay attention to the pressure of Trichet's comments to gauge if the bank could become more hawkish, as the current strong economic indicators have prompted a number of factors ECB rate hike in the near future, analysts said.
Any indication the bank will not take action, such as expectations that could push the euro down, they said.
Some analysts in Tokyo said the more hawkish ECB chance is slim, despite the high market expectations.
"We're not sure the ECB would strengthen his view today, and if it will do, it will in March, when the ECB's revised economic outlook due," said Masafumi Yamamoto, head currency strategist at Barclays Capital Japan.
Soichiro Mori, Head of Market Research at FXOnline Japan, said he also thought the ECB meeting will probably be a signal to drive the euro to weaken.
In addition to the ECB, investors also will focus on data services, the euro-zone PMI for January will be released at 16:00 pm, said Mori. If the result is better than 55.2 ekspekatsi, the euro may see a rapid rise, he said.
At 11:50 GMT, the euro was at $ 1.3794 from $ 1.3810 in New York Wednesday, and at Y112.63 from Y112.64. Dealers in Tokyo said the ongoing political turmoil in the Middle East have prompted investors to sell euros.
U.S. Dollar at Y81.64 from Y81.55, and the Dollar Index, which measures the currency against a number of major currencies, was at 77,162 from 77,086.
Investors say a narrow stream due to the Lunar New Year holidays in Asia. Top side of this unit weighted by Japanese exporters at Y81.80, while the attenuation is also supported at Y81.30 by Japanese importers and life insurance companies, they added.
Market participants also note speech Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke at the National Press Club from 0:30 o'clock pm, said Satoshi Tate, senior dealer at Mizuho Corporate Bank.
"This is a great opportunity to assess how strong the bank remains committed to the quantitative easing program," he said.
Tate noted, if the pressure Bernanke still has not changed from the current view of the bank, then "it will give us a sign to take the dollar weakened against the yen."
Oil fell on Thursday as a stronger dollar pulled from the highest crude oil which touched 28-month on fears of unrest in Egypt can spread and disrupt oil shipments from the Middle East.
The euro fell broadly against the dollar after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet's comments threw cold on market expectations that euro zone interest rates will rise in the near future.
Brent crude fell 73 cents to $ 101.61 at 1:21 pm dawn. At the beginning of the session rose to $ 103.37, its highest level since 26 September 2008.
U.S. crude for March, down 60 cents to $ 90.26 per barrel, down from a session high $ 92.05.
Further support for the dollar came from a positive U.S. economic data on jobs, services and non-farm productivity.
International Energy Agency told the U.S. Congress on Thursday that strong demand above the forecast of economic reboundnya and unrest in the Arab countries helped push the price of Brent above $ 100 per barrel.
Brent, the benchmark for crude oil sales in Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia, on Thursday before reaching $ 103 per barrel because of unrest in Egypt increased, with anti-and pro-government supporters caught up in violent clashes.
TRADING PLAN FOREX | |||
| USD-JPY | |||
| BUY | 81.95 | SELL | 81.45 |
| BUY BREAK | 82.30 | SELL BREAK | 81.20 |
| TAKE PROFIT | 0.50 | STOP LOSS | 0.30 |
| RESISTANCE | PIVOT | SUPPORT | |
| 81.98 | 81.69 | 81.32 | Trend :Down |
| 82.35 | | 81.03 | |
| 82.64 | | 80.66 | |
| AUD-USD | |||
| BUY | 1.0175 | SELL | 1.0125 |
| BUY BREAK | 1.0215 | SELL BREAK | 1.0050 |
| TAKE PROFIT | 0.0050 | STOP LOSS | 0.0030 |
| RESISTANCE | PIVOT | SUPPORT | |
| 1.0208 | 1.0146 | 1.0111 | Trend :Up |
| 1.0243 | | 1.0049 | |
| 1.0305 | | 1.0014 | |
| EUR-USD | |||
| BUY | 1.3710 | SELL | 1.3660 |
| BUY BREAK | 1.3765 | SELL BREAK | 1.3550 |
| TAKE PROFIT | 0.0050 | STOP LOSS | 0.0030 |
| RESISTANCE | PIVOT | SUPPORT | |
| 1.3758 | 1.3684 | 1.3543 | Trend : Up |
| 1.3899 | | 1.3469 | |
| 1.3973 | | 1.3328 | |
| GBP-USD | |||
| BUY | 1.6205 | SELL | 1.6155 |
| BUY BREAK | 1.6285 | SELL BREAK | 1.6045 |
| TAKE PROFIT | 0.0050 | STOP LOSS | 0.0030 |
| RESISTANCE | PIVOT | SUPPORT | |
| 1.6234 | 1.6178 | 1.6078 | Trend : Up |
| 1.6334 | | 1.6022 | |
| 1.6390 | | 1.5922 | |
| USD-CHF | |||
| BUY | 0.9485 | SELL | 0.9435 |
| BUY BREAK | 0.9570 | SELL BREAK | 0.9315 |
| TAKE PROFIT | 0.0050 | STOP LOSS | 0.0030 |
| RESISTANCE | PIVOT | SUPPORT | |
| 0.9524 | 0.9459 | 0.9396 | Trend :Down |
| 0.9587 | | 0.9331 | |
| 0.9652 | | 0.9268 | |
LLG | |||
| BUY | 1346.20 | SELL | 1342.10 |
| BUY BREAK | 1366.50 | SELL BREAK | 1334.50 |
| TAKE PROFIT | 5 | STOP LOSS | 3 |
| RESISTANCE | PIVOT | SUPPORT | |
| 1363.37 | 1344.18 | 1332.62 | Trend :Down |
| 1374.93 | | 1313.43 | |
| 1394.12 | | 1301.87 | |
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