Kamis, 24 Februari 2011

Analisa Forex Market 24 Februari 2011

pertumbuhan ekspor tahunan Jepang melambat dalam satu tahun pada bulan Januari ini. Dan neraca perdagangan berayun ke defisit untuk pertama kalinya dalam hampir dua tahun. Tetapi ekonom mengatakan perkiraan bank sentral untuk pemulihan ekspor  tetap kokoh.

Para ekonom mengatakan perlambatan itu kemungkinan untuk sementara saja. Dan perusahaan masih harus tetap melakukan persediaan untuk eksport selanjutnya.

Namun data yang ada tidak membuat nyaman. Hal ini diungkinkan atas terjadinya keteganga di daratan Afrika Utara dan Timur Tengah.
Perbaikan ekspor dan output industri mendorong pemerintah dan Bank of Japan untuk meningkatkan penilaian ekonomi mereka untuk bulan ini. Tapi permintaan domestik yang lesu dan deflasi  yang kuat , hal ini memungkinkan  bahwa BOJ akan ikut pada kebijakan moneter untuk sementara waktu.

JPY berada pada 82.88 level teringgi harian terhadap pasanga USD



AUD/USD menguat ke 1.0034 dari 0.9987 hari Rabu akibat aksi short covering dikarenakan penguatan NZD/USD ke level 0.7500 dari 0.7433, menurut pemerhati mata uang senior Westpac, Sean Callow.

"Aksi short covering pada Kiwi membantu penguatan Aussie," katanya.

Kiwi menguat setelah RBNZ menetapkan suku bunga tidak berubah dan terus menguat setelah Moody mengatakan tidak melihat imbas yang tajam pada kenaikan rating Selandia Baru.

Namun Callow melihat potensi penguatan untuk AUD/USD dalam jangka pendek. "Ini lebih dikarenakan oleh adanya kecemasan global karena tidak seorang pun tahu apakah situasi Libya akan segera berakhir. Meningkatnya harga minyak yang sangat merugikan pertumbuhan Asia."



Menurut Tomohiro Nishida, dealer senior Chuo Mitsui Trust and Banking, Berkembangnya ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga zona Eropa mendorong rally euro

Mata uang dapat naik ke level 1.3700 setelah anggota dewan gubernur ECB, Yves Mersch mengatakan bank sentral mungkin harus menyeimbangkan kebijakannya dikarenakan resiko inflasi. Namun Nishida mengatakan jika saham Asia dibuka melemah akibat pelemahan Wall Street tadi malam (DJI turun 1.4%), penguatan tampaknya tidak akan terjadi di Asia. Memanasnya kondisi di Timur Tengah membebani euro, katanya. Euro di 1.3674 dari level rendah sebelumnya di 1.3649. Sementara, "jika situasi di Timur Tengah dapat terkendali, euro dapat menguat.

Euro dapat menguat ke 1.3750 untuk hari ini, katanya.

Euro berada di 1.3689 diharga tertinggi dan 1.3654



Bermaksud untuk meraih pemulihan, puncak untuk GPBUSD kemarin bertahan di level 1.6170 sejauh ini. Pasangan mata uang tersebut tertekan hari Selasa, seiring salah seorang BOE, Posen berkomentar bahwa kenaikan suku bunga bukanlah opsi terbaik untuk Inggris saat ini, sementara aksi hindar resiko akan melakukan perannya.




Japan's annual export growth slowed in the one in January this year. And the trade balance swung into deficit for the first time in nearly two years. But economists said the central bank forecast to remain strong export recovery.
Economists said the slowdown is likely to only temporarily. And the company still have to keep doing the inventory for subsequent export.
However, existing data do not make comfortable. This diungkinkan on the mainland keteganga in North Africa and the Middle East. Improvement in exports and industrial output prompted the government and the Bank of Japan to increase their economic assessment for this month. But the sluggish domestic demand and strong deflation, it is possible that the BOJ will take part in monetary policy for a while.
JPY was at 82.88 level against pasanga USD Daily teringgi
AUD / USD rose to 1.0034 from 0.9987 on Wednesday due to short covering action due to the strengthening of the NZD / USD to 0.7500 from 0.7433 levels, according to Westpac senior currency observer, Sean Callow.
"Action on the Kiwi short covering would help strengthen the Aussie," he said.
Kiwi higher after RBNZ setting interest rates unchanged and continued to strengthen after Moody's said it saw a sharp impact on New Zealand's rising ratings.
But Callow see the potential reinforcement for the AUD / USD in the short term. "It's more because of the global anxiety because no one knows whether the Libyan situation will soon end. The rise in oil prices that are so damaging Asian growth."
According Tomohiro Nishida, senior dealer Chuo Mitsui Trust and Banking, Growing expectations of eurozone interest rate hikes pushed the euro rally
The currency may rise to the level of 1.3700 after ECB council members governor, Yves Mersch said the central bank may have to balance its policy because of the risk of inflation. But Nishida said if Asian stocks open lower due to weaker Wall Street last night (DJI down 1.4%), reinforcement is unlikely to occur in Asia. Warming conditions in the Middle East to burden the euro, he said. The euro at 1.3674 from the previous low level at 1.3649. Meanwhile, "if the situation in the Middle East can be controlled, the euro may strengthen.
The euro strengthened to 1.3750 to this day, he said.
The euro was at 1.3689 and 1.3654 the highest diharga
Intends to achieve recovery, the peak for GPBUSD yesterday survive at the level of 1.6170 so far. Currency pair is depressed on Tuesday, as one of the BOE, Posen commented that rising interest rates is not the best option for Britain today, while action will avoid the risk of doing his role.





DateTime & Date OptionsGMT+7CurrencyImpactDetailActualForecastPreviousChart


Thu
Feb 24
12:00amEUR
ECB President Trichet Speaks

12:15amEUR
Buba President Weber Speaks

1:30amGBP
MPC Member Miles Speaks

1:30amUSD
FOMC Member Plosser Speaks

6:00amAUD
CB Leading Index m/m

0.3%
7:30amAUD
Private Capital Expenditure q/q
2.2%
6.2%
2:00pmEUR
German Final GDP q/q
0.4%
0.4%
3:15pmCHF
Employment Level
4.10M
4.08M
4:00pmEUR
Italian Retail Sales m/m
0.2%
-0.3%
6:00pmGBP
CBI Realized Sales
30
37
8:30pmUSD
Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
0.4%
0.8%
8:30pmUSD
Unemployment Claims
405K
410K
8:30pmUSD
Durable Goods Orders m/m
2.4%
-2.3%
10:00pmUSD
New Home Sales
330K
329K
10:00pmUSD
OFHEO HPI m/m
-0.2%
0.0%
10:30pmGBP
MPC Member Weale Speaks

10:30pmUSD
Natural Gas Storage

-233B
11:00pmUSD
Crude Oil Inventories

0.9M








Trading Plan





USD-JPY
BUY
82.71
SELL
82.26
BUY BREAK
83.61
SELL BREAK
81.64
TAKE PROFIT
0.50
STOP LOSS
0.30
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

82.68
82.47
82.08
                        Trend : Down
83.07

81.87

83.28

81.48





AUD-USD
BUY
1.0053
SELL
1.0008
BUY BREAK
1.0109
SELL BREAK
0.9961
TAKE PROFIT
0.0050
STOP LOSS
0.0030
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

1.0077
1.0029
0.9999
Trend : Up
1.0107

0.9951

1.0155

0.9921





EUR-USD
BUY
1.3770
SELL
1.3725
BUY BREAK
1.3820
SELL BREAK
1.3660
TAKE PROFIT
0.0050
STOP LOSS
0.0030
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

1.3810
1.3746
1.3706
Trend : Up
1.3850

1.3642

1.3914

1.3602





GBP-USD
BUY
1.6248
SELL
1.6203
BUY BREAK
1.6280
SELL BREAK
1.6101
TAKE PROFIT
0.0050
STOP LOSS
0.0030
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

1.6285
1.6224
1.6176
Trend : Up
1.6333

1.6115

1.6394

1.6067





USD-CHF
BUY
0.9343
SELL
0.9298
BUY BREAK
0.9439
SELL BREAK
0.9224
TAKE PROFIT
0.0050
STOP LOSS
0.0030
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

0.9361
0.9319
0.9247
Trend : Down
0.9433

0.9205

0.9475

0.9133






EUR-JPY
BUY
113.62
SELL
113.17
BUY BREAK
114.21
SELL BREAK
112.19
TAKE PROFIT
000.50
STOP LOSS
000.30
RESISTANCE
PIVOT
SUPPORT

113.74
113.38
112.95
Trend : Up
114.17

112.59

114.53

112.16

 

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