Kawasan Australia: Gubernur Bank Sentral Royal Bank of Australia (RBA)mengumumkan suku bunga dipertahankan di level 4,75% sekaligus memberikan pandangan kemungkinan kenaikan suku bunga beberapa bulan mendatang pada tahun ini.
Kawasan Amerika: Menurut pernyataan yang dirilis pada akhir pertemuan pertama tahun ini FOMC tidak mengubah atau tetap mempertahankan tingkat suku bunga pada level 0,25%. pernyataan Fed menunjukkan adanya potensi untuk membeli obligasi (QE3) setelah QE2 berakhir pada bulan Juni mendatang.
Kawasan Inggris dan Eropa: Bank of England suku bunga akan berada di level 1,25%, sementara perkiraan dari Institut Nasional Riset Ekonomi dan Sosial terhadap angka inflasi rata-rata akan berada di level 3,8%; lebih tinggi dari perkiraan para Ekonom Departemen Keuangan dan Bank yang sebelumnya memperkirakan inflasi hanya di level 2,8%.
SAHAM. Pergerakan pasar Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan, IHSG akan berada antara level support di sekitar posisi 3412 dan 3310, sementara resistance di level 3530 dan berikutnya 3630. Harga saham menguat hampir semua sektor, yakni: perdagangan memimpin kenaikan sebesar 1,6%; perkebunan 1,5%; finansial dan tambang 1,4%, industri dasar 1,2%. Demikian pula sektor infrastruktur naik 1%, konsumer 0,9%, manufaktur 0,6% dan properti 0,3%. Saham yang menarik untuk diperhatikan antara lain United Tractor (UNTR) dan Astra Argo Lestari (AALI); Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF); Adaro Energy (ADRO); dan PT Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS); Alam Sutera Realty (ASRI).
REKSADANA. Perolehan NAB tertinggi adalah Reksadana CIMB – Principal Bond yaitu 12, 872.60 untuk Reksadana Pendapatan Tetap , Schroder Dana Prestasi sebesar 19,836.29, untuk Reksadana Campuran dan Panin Dana Maksima sebesar 47,304.05 untuk Reksadana Saham.
FOREX – EMAS. Minggu lalu di pasar forex nilai tukar mata uang dollar secara umum stabil, dimana index dollar AS berakhir di level 78.140 dan euro terpangkas tajam oleh naiknya permintaan US dollar di tengah eskalasi politik di kawasan Afrika –Mesir dan berakhir di level 1.3606. Pertengahan minggu berjalan ini market range akan berada antara level resistance pada 1.3780 dan berikutnya di 1.4278, sedangkan level support di 1.3240 dan kemudian pada 1.2867. USDJPY minggu lalu cenderung melemah terbatas, sementara kedua mata uang menjadi pilihan investasi safe haven hari-hari ini. Pasar di minggu ini nampaknya masih sama berada di antara support level 80.90 dan 80.22, serta resistance pada 84.50 dan 86.00. Sementara itu, Aussie dollar terpantau seminggu lewat menguat terbatas dan ditutup pada level 0.9927. Range minggu ini tetap antara resistance 1.0224 dan support level di 0.9794 dan 0.9540.
Pasar emas mengalami penurunan lebih tipis karena di akhir minggu melonjak sebagai pilihan safe haven di tengah memanasnya situasi kawasan Afrika. Lagi, emas jadi pilihan investasi di kala tekanan krisis. Emas di LLG minggu lalu berakhir pada level $1334.95 per troy ounce. Untuk pertengahan minggu ke depan emas akan berada antara level support di $1307 serta support berikut $1275 per troy ounce. Sementara itu, resistance terdekat pada $1393 lalu level $1432.
POUNDSTERLING. Sejalan dengan mulai diburunya lagi US dollar melemah ke level 1.5860; pada pertengahan minggu berjalan ini level resistance terdekat pada 1.6063 dan kemudian 1.6300, sedang support berada pada 1.5745 dan kemudian 1.5340.
KOMODITI – INDEKS. Stock index futures, indeks Nikkei kembali melemah walau terbatas berakhir di 10240. Penurunan rating hutang Jepang ke AA- oleh S&P berpengaruh terbatas ke index karena diimbangi pelemahan mata uang yen yang memberi imbas positif untuk kinerja ekspor. Pertengahan minggu ini, Nikkei berjangka akan dalam rentangan resistance terdekat pada 10630 yang bila tembus akan mengarah ke level berikutnya di 11393. Adapun support pada level 10150 dan lalu 9906. Sementara itu, Indeks Hang Seng berjangka di Hong Kong mengalami koreksi dengan lebih tipis dari minggu sebelumnya, ditutup di level 23650. Pertengahan minggu ini, akan berada dalam range level resistance di 24477 dan berikutnya 24945, sementara support-nya di 23490 selanjutnya 22375.
Global Economy. Wall Street stock market last week but corrected could climb sharply in the last day of trading Friday, again by warming of the political situation in Egypt that encourages investors to seek safer positions after their previous longest rally that occurred since May 2007. Dow Jones Industrial this week is still possible to climb again towards the next resistance level that leads to 12 600, while support at 11,515 level and then at 11,320. S & P 500 index last week experienced a correction again with other exchanges; resistance is still at around 1300, while the level of support was in 1252 and 1218. Important economic news, as usual in the first week of each month, including the announcement of interest rates in Australia and Europe are estimated to still remain at previous levels, and unemployment data in the U.S..
Australian Regions: Central Bank Governor Royal Bank of Australia (RBA) announced interest rate maintained at 4.75% levels while providing views of the possibility of higher interest rates the next few months this year.
Regions America: According to a statement released at the end of this year's first meeting of the FOMC did not alter or maintain interest rates at 0.25% level. Fed statement shows the potential to buy bonds (QE3) after the QE2 ends next June.
UK and European Regions: The Bank of England interest rate will be at the level of 1.25%, while estimates from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research of the average inflation rate will be 3.8% higher than estimates by economists Department Finance and the Bank that were previously estimated only at the level of inflation is 2.8%.
SHARE. Market movements Composite Stock Price Index, JCI will lie between the level of support at around positions 3412 and 3310, while the resistance at the next level of 3530 and 3630. Stock prices rose nearly all sectors, namely: trade led the increase of 1.6%; plantations 1.5%; financial and mining 1.4%, 1.2% of basic industries. Similarly, the infrastructure sector rose 1%, 0.9% consumer, manufacturing 0.6% and 0.3% property. Share interesting to note that among other United Tractor (UNTR) and Astra Argo Lestari (AALI); Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF); Adaro Energy (ADRO) and PT Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS); Alam Sutera Realty (ASRI).
Mutual funds. Obtaining the highest NAV Mutual Fund CIMB - Principal Bond which is 12, 872.60 for Fixed Income Mutual Funds, Schroder Fund Performance at 19,836.29, for the Mutual Fund Mixes and Panin Maksima of 47,304.05 for the Mutual Fund Shares.
FOREX - GOLD. Last week in the forex market currency dollar exchange rate is generally stable, where the U.S. dollar index ended at the 78,140 level and the euro trimmed by a sharp rise in demand for U.S. dollar amid political escalation in the region of Africa-Egypt and ending at 1.3606 level. Mid-week run this market range will be between the resistance level at 1.3780 and the next at 1.4278, while the support level at 1.3240 and then at 1.2867. USDJPY last week tended to weaken limited, while the two currencies become safe haven investment option these days. Markets in still seems to be the same this week were among the support level of 80.90 and 80.22, and resistance at 84.50 and 86.00. Meanwhile, the Aussie dollar strengthened monitored through a limited week and closed at 0.9927. Range this week remains between 1.0224 resistance and support level at 0.9794 and 0.9540.
Gold market has decreased due to the thinner end of the week as the choice of safe haven soared amid a warming situation of Africa region. Again, the gold so the choice of investment in times of crisis pressures. Gold in LLG last week end at the level of $ 1,334.95 per troy ounce. For mid-next week gold will be between the level of support at $ 1,307 and below $ 1,275 support per troy ounce. Meanwhile, the nearest resistance level at $ 1,393 and $ 1,432.
Pounds. In line with the start hunts again the U.S. dollar weakened to as low as 1.5860; in mid-week run is the nearest resistance level at 1.6063 and then 1.6300, while support is at 1.5745 and then 1.5340.
COMMODITY - INDEX. Stock index futures, the Nikkei index fell back to end at 10,240 although limited. Impairment rating of Japanese debt to AA-by S & P index because the effect is limited to offset weakening of the yen which give positive impact to export performance. Mid this week, the Nikkei futures will in the nearest resistance range of 10 630 which, when translucent will lead to the next level at 11,393. The support at 10,150 level and then 9906. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng index futures in Hong Kong experienced a correction in thinner than the previous week, closing at 23,650 levels. Mid this week, will be in the range of resistance level at 24,477 and 24,945 the next, while his support in the next 23 490 22 375.
TRADING PLAN FOREX | |||
USD-JPY | |||
BUY | 82.25 | SELL | 81.75 |
BUY BREAK | 82.90 | SELL BREAK | 81.00 |
TAKE PROFIT | 0.50 | STOP LOSS | 0.30 |
RESISTANCE | PIVOT | SUPPORT | |
82.66 | 81.96 | 81.47 | Trend : Up |
83.15 | 80.77 | ||
83.85 | 80.28 | ||
AUD-USD | |||
BUY | 1.0175 | SELL | 1.0125 |
BUY BREAK | 1.0210 | SELL BREAK | 1.0065 |
TAKE PROFIT | 0.0050 | STOP LOSS | 0.0030 |
RESISTANCE | PIVOT | SUPPORT | |
1.0186 | 1.0148 | 1.0099 | Trend : Down |
1.0235 | 1.0061 | ||
1.0273 | 1.0012 | ||
EUR-USD | |||
BUY | 1.3620 | SELL | 1.3575 |
BUY BREAK | 1.3715 | SELL BREAK | 1.3530 |
TAKE PROFIT | 0.0050 | STOP LOSS | 0.0030 |
RESISTANCE | PIVOT | SUPPORT | |
1.3649 | 1.3596 | 1.3531 | Trend :Down |
1.3714 | 1.3478 | ||
1.3767 | 1.3413 | ||
GBP-USD | |||
BUY | 1.6125 | SELL | 1.5980 |
BUY BREAK | 1.6285 | SELL BREAK | 1.5920 |
TAKE PROFIT | 0.0050 | STOP LOSS | 0.0030 |
RESISTANCE | PIVOT | SUPPORT | |
1.6167 | 1.6101 | 1.6032 | Trend :Down |
1.6236 | 1.5966 | ||
1.6302 | 1.5897 | ||
USD-CHF | |||
BUY | 0.9555 | SELL | 0.9510 |
BUY BREAK | 0.9600 | SELL BREAK | 0.9425 |
TAKE PROFIT | 0.0050 | STOP LOSS | 0.0030 |
RESISTANCE | PIVOT | SUPPORT | |
0.9609 | 0.9531 | 0.9468 | Trend :Up |
0.9672 | 0.9390 | ||
0.9750 | 0.9327 | ||
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