• Dari kawasan Amerika: berupa rilis data Unemployment Claims mingguan yang biasa menjadi perhatian pasar –pada Kamis malam; kemudian Trade Balance atau Neraca Perdagangan dan Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment di Jumat malam.
o Dari kawasan Inggris dan Eropa: berupa data Manufacturing Production Inggris pada Kamis petang dilanjutkan dengan pengumuman suku bunga Inggris yang kemungkinan bertahan di level 0.5%. Namun demikian, investor global sedang menantikan hasil MPC meeting yang bisa mengindikasikan bertambahnya kemungkinan kenaikan suku bunga pada periode berikutnya.
o Dari Australia: berupa pengumuman Retail Sales pada Senin pagi, lalu Unemployment Rate pada Kamis pagi.
Minggu lalu di pasar forex, nilai tukar mata uang dollar cukup volatile dengan melorot di awal minggu dan rebound di tengah sampai akhir minggu, lebih karena fluktuasi euro, dengan index dollar AS berakhir di level 78.020, terangkat juga oleh menurunnya tingkat pengangguran di AS. Pekan yang lalu euro sempat mengalami rally sampai level 12 minggu tertinggi menjelang hari pengumuman rate ECB namun kemudian terpangkas hampir 250 pips setelah Trichet menyebutkan bahwa infasi di Eropa tergolong “moderat” dan berakhir di level 1.3589, nyaris flat dengan level penutupan minggu sebelumnya. Untuk minggu berjalan ini market range akan berada antara level resistance pada 1.3858 dan berikutnya di 1.4278, sedangkan level support di 1.3240 dan kemudian pada 1.2867.
Poundsterling minggu lalu umumnya menguat vs dollar tapi terpangkas di akhir minggu ke level 1. 6099, sejalan dengan membaiknya data pengangguran AS. Untuk minggu ini, level resistance terdekat pada 1.6300 dan kemudian 1.6460, sedang support berada pada 1.5745 dan kemudian 1.5340. Untuk USDJPY minggu lalu cenderung menguat terbatas, dengan kenaikan USD secara global. Pasar di minggu ini nampaknya masih sama berada di antara support level 80.90 dan 80.22, serta resistance pada 83.67 dan 84.50. Sementara itu, Aussie dollar terpantau seminggu lewat menguat oleh prespek ekonomi dan kenaikan inflasi; ditutup pada level 1.0140. Range minggu ini tetap antara resistance 1.0230 dan 1.03 sementara support level di 0.9794.
Untuk pasar di stock index futures, pada minggu lalu indeks Nikkei menguat sekitar 300 poin oleh membaiknya perkembangan bisnis, berakhir di 10540. Minggu nanti Nikkei berjangka akan dalam rentangan resistance terdekat pada 10630 yang bila tembus akan mengarah ke level berikutnya di 11393. Adapun support pada level 10150 dan lalu 9906. Sementara itu, Indeks Hang Seng berjangka di Hong Kong minggu lalu sempat tergelincir namun kemudian merangkak naik 730 poin, ditutup di level 23958. Minggu ini akan berada dalam range level resistance di 24477 dan berikutnya 24945, sementara support-nya di 23280 selanjutnya 22375.
Bursa saham Wall Street minggu lalu menguat terus di tengah keyakinan investor akan membaiknya fundamental ekoonomi AS –merupakan minggu terbaik di bursa dalam dua bulan terakhir. Dow Jones Industrial minggu ini masih dalam bullish-trend menjelang level resistance berikutnya ke 12600, sementara support di level 11515 dan kemudian pada 11320. Index S&P 500 minggu lalu juga menguat; resistance sekarang di level 1400, sementara level support berada di 1252 dan 1218.
Untuk pasar emas, minggu lalu menguat sebagai pilihan safe haven di tengah memanasnya situasi Mesir dan kawasan Arab. Emas di LLG minggu lalu berakhir pada level $1349.55 per troy ounce, terakhir sempat tergerus oleh penguatan dollar. Untuk sepekan ke depan emas akan cenderung positif, berada antara level support di $1307 serta support berikut $1275 per troy ounce. Sementara itu, resistance terdekat pada $1393 lalu level $1432.
Situasi politik terbukti mempunyai dampak kepada pergerakan arah pasar investasi. Apa yang terjadi di Mesir yang berdampak kepada bursa, baik bursa saham maupun komoditas, menunjukkan ada sejumlah factor non-ekonomi yang dapat menggerakkan pasar. Besar kecil dampaknya tergantung dari tingkat besaran (magnitude) dari factor itu sendiri. Saat ini Mesir masih bergejolak. Mungkin saja berikutnya beberapa negara lain di kawasan Arab akan ikut bergolak. Dalam situasi yang tidak menentu ini disarankan jadilah investor yang bijak.
For the global economic indicators, in this week will be filled in a few important economic news releases, including announcement of interest rates in Britain are estimated to still remain at previous levels. China will still be a long Lunar New Year holidays until next Tuesday. In general, economic data releases that investors would need to be considered this week are: • From the Americas: Unemployment Claims data releases in the form of a regular weekly market concern, on Thursday night, and Trade Balance or Balance of Trade and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment on Friday night. o From the UK and European regions: a UK Manufacturing Production data on Thursday evening continued with the announcement of UK interest rates are likely to persist at levels of 0.5%. However, global investors were waiting for the results of the MPC meeting that could indicate the increased possibility of higher interest rates in the next period. o From Australia: Retail Sales in the form of an announcement on Monday morning, and Unemployment Rate on Thursday morning.
Last week in the forex market, currency exchange rates quite volatile with a sagging dollar at the beginning of the week and a rebound in the middle until the end of the week, more because of fluctuations in the euro, the dollar index ended at the 78,020 level, lifted also by a decreased level of unemployment in the U.S.. Last week the euro had rallied to the highest level 12 weeks before the day of the ECB rate announcement but later trimmed down almost 250 pips after Trichet said that infasi in Europe are "moderate" and ends at the level of 1.3589, nearly flat with the previous week's closing level. To run this week market will be range between resistance level at 1.3858 and the next at 1.4278, while the support level at 1.3240 and then at 1.2867.
Pounds Sterling last week versus the dollar generally rose at the end of the week but trimmed down to level 1. 6099, in line with the improvement in U.S. unemployment data. For this week, the nearest resistance level at 1.6300 and then 1.6460, while support is at 1.5745 and then 1.5340. For USDJPY last week tends to strengthen limited, with an increase of USD globally. Markets in still seems to be the same this week were among the support level of 80.90 and 80.22, and resistance at 83.67 and 84.50. Meanwhile, the Aussie dollar a week monitored through strengthened by prespek economy and rising inflation; closed at 1.0140. This week range between resistance remains 1.0230 and 1:03 while the support level at 0.9794.
For the market in stock index futures, last week the Nikkei rose about 300 points by the improvement in business development, ending at 10,540. Nikkei futures Sunday will be the nearest resistance range of 10 630 which, when translucent will lead to the next level at 11,393. The support at 10,150 level and then 9906. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng index futures in Hong Kong last week had slipped but then crept up 730 points, closing at 23,958 levels. This week will be in the range of resistance level at 24,477 and 24,945 the next, while his support in the next 23 280 22 375.
Wall Street last week amid strong investor confidence continues to be improvement in U.S. fundamentals ekoonomi a week-best on the stock in the last two months. Dow Jones Industrial this week-still in a bullish trend towards the next resistance level to 12,600, while the support at 11,515 level and then at 11,320. S & P 500 Index last week rose; resistance is now at the level of 1400, while the level of support was in 1252 and 1218.
For the gold market, rose last week as the choice of safe haven in the midst of a warming situation of Egypt and the Arab region. Gold in LLG last week end at the level of $ 1,349.55 per troy ounce, the last was eroded by the strengthening dollar. For next week gold will tend to be positive, located between the support level at $ 1,307 and below $ 1,275 support per troy ounce. Meanwhile, the nearest resistance level at $ 1,393 and $ 1,432.
The political situation proved to have an impact on the investment market direction. What happened in Egypt that have an impact on the stock, both stock and commodity exchanges, show that there are a number of non-economic factors that can move the market. Great little impact depends on the level of magnitude (magnitude) of the factor itself. Currently, Egypt is still volatile. Perhaps the next few other countries in the Arab region will take part in turmoil. In this uncertain situation suggested that investors be wise.
TRADING PLAN FOREX | |||
USD-JPY | |||
BUY | 82.50 | SELL | 82.10 |
BUY BREAK | 82.60 | SELL BREAK | 81.80 |
TAKE PROFIT | 0.50 | STOP LOSS | 0.30 |
RESISTANCE | PIVOT | SUPPORT | |
82.44 | 82.30 | 82.15 | Trend : Up |
82.59 | 82.01 | ||
82.73 | 81.86 | ||
AUD-USD | |||
BUY | 1.0160 | SELL | 1.0110 |
BUY BREAK | 1.0205 | SELL BREAK | 1.0030 |
TAKE PROFIT | 0.0050 | STOP LOSS | 0.0030 |
RESISTANCE | PIVOT | SUPPORT | |
1.0155 | 1.0133 | 1.0107 | Trend : Down |
1.0181 | 1.0085 | ||
1.0203 | 1.0059 | ||
EUR-USD | |||
BUY | 1.3595 | SELL | 1.3550 |
BUY BREAK | 1.3690 | SELL BREAK | 1.3500 |
TAKE PROFIT | 0.0050 | STOP LOSS | 0.0030 |
RESISTANCE | PIVOT | SUPPORT | |
1.3635 | 1.3571 | 1.3518 | Trend :Down |
1.3688 | 1.3454 | ||
1.3752 | 1.3401 | ||
GBP-USD | |||
BUY | 1.6160 | SELL | 1.6110 |
BUY BREAK | 1.6200 | SELL BREAK | 1.6075 |
TAKE PROFIT | 0.0050 | STOP LOSS | 0.0030 |
RESISTANCE | PIVOT | SUPPORT | |
1.6176 | 1.6132 | 1.6081 | Trend : Up |
1.6227 | 1.6037 | ||
1.6271 | 1.5986 | ||
USD-CHF | |||
BUY | 0.9590 | SELL | 0.9540 |
BUY BREAK | 0.9630 | SELL BREAK | 0.9455 |
TAKE PROFIT | 0.0050 | STOP LOSS | 0.0030 |
RESISTANCE | PIVOT | SUPPORT | |
0.9594 | 0.9562 | 0.9527 | Trend :Up |
0.9629 | 0.9495 | ||
0.9661 | 0.9460 | ||
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